By Chris Sloan
January 23, 2025 © Leeham News: Today, GE Aerospace reported a strong beat on its first full-year and fourth-quarter results as a standalone public company. Softer LEAP deliveries were more than offset by services. “GE continues to demonstrate what a high-quality company can produce in a healthy aerospace environment – and that the aero aftermarket is far from dead,” said a Vertical Research Partners analyst report. Nearly eight years since LEAP’s EIS, the engine’s durability and reliability are beginning to catch up with fuel efficiency gains that continue to beat and exceed operational expectations. The world’s largest engine, the GE-9X is progressing toward next year’s launch under the wing of the world’s largest twin, the Boeing 777-X.
Overall, demand continues to outstrip supply. The company touted orders for more than 4,600 commercial and defensive engines led by big LEAP-1B wins from American Airlines and El Al for 737 MAXs, GEnx-1B campaign victories for Royal Jordanian and British Airways 787s, and new GE-9X orders from China Airlines. The entry-into-service of the first LEAP-powered Airbus A321XLR was another highlight. Supply chains and productivity, though still challenged, showed meaningful improvement powered by the engine maker’s so-called “Flight Deck lean operating model.”
LEAPing toward Maturity
The LEAP which holds a commanding market-share lead over Pratt’s competing GTF on the A320neo family platform and as the sole 737 MAX engine, has not been immune to durability issues though to a far less extent than its RTX rival. GE CEO Larry Culp reported GE received certification for LEAP-1A durability kits powering Airbus neo narrowbodies. “It’s designed to increase the time on wing by more than twofold above current levels and achieve parity with the CFM 56’s performance today. Just this week in fact, we shipped our first retrofit engines to customers with the new hardware” he noted.
Supply chain constraints impacted deliveries. “GE delivered 378 LEAP engines in Q4. This is down 5% y/y but up modestly from Q3’s 365 and in line with the forecast for a 10% decline this year,” said a JP Morgan Analyst Report. Culp remarked that the Flight Deck program is clawing progress gains. “Earlier last year, our priority suppliers shipped only half of their committed targets to us. Today, They’re shipping over 90% of the committed volume,” Culp announced noting a laser focus on “eliminating waste” by deploying over 550 GE employees into the supply base increasing output by 50%. “We’re at our best when we’re operating as one team,” he emphasized. On a positive note, the lower volume was more than offset by customer mix and price. The company boasted it caught up on spare engine deliveries to support airline fleet stability.
Culp cautioned that GE will be balancing LEAP ramp ups (in accordance with Airbus and Boeing rate increases) with the aftermarket and spares, but expects new unit shipsets to increase by 15-20%.
Services Servicing The Fleet and The P/L
“It was a milestone year for LEAP services,” boasted CFO, Rahul Ghai. “The profitability of the program tended to be better than initial expectations from higher external spare parts volume, better pricing, and lower warranty expenses as some of those fixes are going in and more shop visits than we had initially expected,” he added. Ghai guided to increased profitability and margins for that program from increase in shop visits and higher external spare parts volume – with internal / external MRO network partners shop visits increasing from a 90%/10% mix in 2024 to 85%/%15% mix in 2025, and growing to 25% from there.
“The program is on the right trajectory and as the program kind of breaks even this year. All becomes profitable next year. I think the services growth trajectory that the program hasn’t been installed base is going to power the program. So we expect LEAP to be at CFM 56 levels by 2028,” the CFO forecasts.
Supply chain stressors persist. “A key takeaway from the conference call was CEO Culp’s comment that there is no shortage of services demand and that parts shortages have even caused some delinquencies in services. This supports the fact that aftermarket growth is far from over and there is more upside for GE if supply constraints can be relieved,” said a Bernstein Report. Still, CES Services recorded revenue growth of 12% year-over-year supported by expanded shop visit work scope and spare parts growth. “Our recent wins build on our backlog of $154bn with about 90% of that backlog in services,” said Culp.
When Will Productivity Power to Pre-Pandemic Levels?
Across the industry, analysts and manufacturers alike remain hyper-focused on seeing supply-chain productivity return to pre-pandemic levels. Culp sees forward movement. “There is ample evidence that the Flight Deck principles and tools really are helping us go in put the operators at the center of all we do and just drain the waste out of their daily work. That to me is the heart of productivity, labor productivity.” But he urges patience in seeing that translate into better on-time productivity. “Unfortunately, that work that we see with our own eyes hasn’t fully translated. I think we sit here fully expecting to be able to deliver better labor productivity in ’25 and certainly from there,” he optimistically sounds – driven by steadily improving supplier input flows into GE’s factories and repair shops.
GE-9X Showing Momentum
The long-delayed 777-X and GE-9X is edging closer to EIS – sometime in 2026 as announced last Fall by Boeing. GE is delighted that the aircraft is resuming flight testing. “We’ve got work to do clearly, but the customer feedback relative to that aircraft in that engine continues to be quite strong and we’ve got 1,000 engines now in backlog and I’d like to think that with the delays we’ve made good use,” said Culp looking on the bright side. The second dust test engine, critical in harsh and hot environments is underway, along with their second iteration of HPT blades. The 777-X, itself is approaching 2,500 cycles. “We’re probably gonna end up being the most tested engine in our history,” Culp reveals.
GE is backloading its 9X, shipments more towards the back end of 2025. “But we are entering the year for spare parts with about 90% of that revenue in our backlog, so we’ll have a strong quarter here to start with,” Ghai remarked.
Robust Numbers
Overall, GE Aerospace delivered strong results in the fourth quarter of 2024, with total orders reaching $15.5bn, a 46% increase year-over-year. The company reported total revenue (GAAP) of $10.8bn, representing a 14% growth compared to the previous year. Profit (GAAP) surged by 37% to $2.3bn, while the profit margin (GAAP) stood at an impressive 21.2%.For the full year 2024, the company achieved total orders of $50.3bn, reflecting a 32% increase year-over-year. It reported total revenue (GAAP) of $38.7bn, up 9% from the prior year, with a profit (GAAP) of $7.6bn and a profit margin (GAAP) of 19.7%.
In the quarter, The Commercial Engines and Services Unit (CES) reported orders of $12.9bn, a 50% increase driven by growth in both services and equipment. Revenue rose 19% to $7.7bn, with services up 12%, fueled by expanded shop visit workscope, higher spare parts sales, and pricing improvements. Equipment revenue grew 38%, supported by favorable engine and customer mix, as well as pricing, which offset lower unit volumes. Profit surged 44% to $2.2bn, as spare parts volume, the expanded shop visit workscope, mix, and pricing more than offset the impacts of inflation and investments. For the full year, CES orders rose 38%, revenue increased 13%, and profit grew 25%.
GE is guiding low double-digit growth, building on 2024’s $35.1bn. Operating profit is forecasted to rise to a range of $7.8bn to $8.2bn, up from $7.3bn in 2024, with a robust profit margin of approximately 20.7%.
Related
