Jekyll and Tide — Which Alabama team is going to show up in Rupp to face the No. 8 Wildcats?

I don’t have to tell you the enormity of the challenge that faces Alabama in Lexington on Saturday. But I’m going to anyway.

The No. 4 Crimson Tide’s unique brand of on-again/off-again motivation and cephalization hits the road to face the No. 8 Wildcats, who have been renewed under Mark Pope and feature one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the nation. They are one of the tallest teams in the country, one of its most veteran, and they’re every bit as battle-tested as the Tide. Worse, they get to do so at home, in the SEC arena where Alabama has its worst historical record. Did we mention that Rupp also has the SEC’s worst home vs. away foul disparity? You’re not getting whistles against the ‘Cats. You have to beat them, and often you have to beat them playing 5-on-8…even grading on the SEC’s terrible curve.

And to beat this team, you only have two options: Be a defensive shutdown specialist, or outscore them in a game that goes off the rails. We know that even talking about the former is a cruel joke with this ‘Bama team, so the matchup is going to turn on who has the most effective offense Saturday.

Is Alabama up to the task? Let’s see.

Tale of the Tape: No. 8 Kentucky (14-3, 3-1) vs No. 4 Alabama (14-3, 3-1)

Spread: Alabama +2.5 (O/U 178.5)

Opponent KenPom: 16 (2 offense, 76 defense, 30 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 18 (5 offense, 54 defense, 23 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 15 (2 offense, 87 defense, 21 tempo)
Opponent NET: 10 (6-3 Q1)
Opponent RPI: 8
Opponent Best KenPom Win: vs Duke (2)
Opponent Worst KenPom Loss: @ Georgia (37)

UA Ken Pom: 9th (7 Off, 37th Defense, 1st Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 6th (4 Off, 21st Defense, 1st Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 9th (4 Off, 28th Defense, 2nd Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 8 (5-3 Q1)
UA RPI: 3
UA Best KenPom Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst KenPom Loss: No. 21 (N) Oregon

Want to know what Alabama / Kentucky looks like, at least on paper?

Wide-open tempo offense, heavy reliance on the perimeter shot, penetration and cuts to the basket for layups, big men to clean up cheap offensive rebounds, good perimeter defense, awful at forcing turnovers, good floor shooting team (especially in the lane), and a lot of fouls that send a lot of opponents marching to the free throw line.

The Wildcats are another five-out offensive system (we’ve ran across it a few times already), but the differences in philosophy between the two squads are de miminis — right down to both coaches using two bigs while still running the floor. Moreso than Alabama, thoiugh, Kentucky relies on floor spacing to open up looks rather than making 3- and 4-passes. It puts pressure on defenders to cover a lot of real estate and guard the entire floor. And when Kentucky does rotate into a Four-Out look, Mark Pope dials up great plays to create traffic and distractions for some easy backdoor looks.

The Wildcats also run high-screen against on-ball man defense to free up their trio of perimeter shooters. And unlike Alabama, Kentucky can actually hit those unguarded shots, as well as knock down the contested looks.

These are BYU cut-ups, but the bottom line is the same: Alabama has to play lockdown defense beyond the arc, while also not getting lost in traffic or biting on a pass-fake — because Mark Pope loves to run fake penetration to set up lobs and easy bunnies.

I don’t want to be reductive here, but if you’ve watched Alabama play at all in the last 5-6 years, then not a single thing that Kentucky does will surprise you or even look alien. It’s practically the same offense, though with more of a reliance on scoring from their big men. Think “more Illinois, less Alabama” in that respect, but without the Illini’s complete abandonment of the midrange jumper…albeit barely.

It’s analytical basketball played at breakneck speed, and it’s a lot of fun.

That said, what has not been so much fun — at least for Kentucky fans — has been a defense that somehow manages to make even the Tide’s most inept moments look like they’re the Pistons Bad Boys. Kentucky is flat-out rotten defensively, particularly given their lofty ranking and stellar record.

Technically, this is a pressure defense, but it’s one that doesn’t rebound well, doesn’t pressure well, doesn’t force turnovers, and all-in-all looks like they’d much rather be playing offense. If Wimp Sanders thinks Alabama plays street ball, I’d hate to hear what he has to say about the Wildcats.

The problem for the Wildcats begins in the post. Mark Pope’s 5-Out doesn’t just lean on the bigs for scoring, it must have impact big defenders…or at least ones that will put in some effort on the defensive end. This group simply doesn’t. Oh, they’re a great offensive rebounding bunch: they’re always eager to get after it to stuff the scoresheet, but they’re terrible on the defensive end, and the lack of effort they put in would send most coaches into the ER with aneurysms.

Watch this. And, no, this is not an outlier moment:

Too many guys standing around, no one fighting through screens, defenders just casually watching dudes stroll into the lane flat-footed, not contesting shots, no rotation, no backside help, no anticipation for the ball coming off the rim — and then it leads to an easy 1-on-2 offensive board and put-back for the Dawgs.

This is actually despicable to watch.

On paper, the thing the Wildcats do well is guard the perimeter. But even that’s a function of their height (about the same size as the Tide), bad college three-point shooting (which is getting worse every year after the line was moved back), and not facing many teams that rely on the three-ball. Teams are getting a ton of opportunities to let ‘er rip, even if they’re not a perimeter team though. MSU shot 40, Aggie 34, Gata 30, Bucknell 36 — the season low was 15 by Ohio State, who didn’t need to, because they dominated the post. And that’s been a feature of all of Kentucky’s losses (and most of their close wins). You can try to match them score-for-score from beyond they arc — because they’ll give you the look — or you can get after the glass to get your points. Again, because they’ll give you the look.

After decades of facing tenacious Wildcats defenses, with future NBA size and skill and physicality all over the floor, it’s odd to see a team as soft as this one in those Bluegrass jersey. They are, however, a smart team. The Wildcats start four seniors and a junior; three of their top five reserves are seniors. There’s a reason UK is 8th in the nation in turnover rate: they hang on to the ball with smart passing and crisp execution.

Key Personnel

If you want to beat Kentucky you absolutely must stop their perimeter scorers, in particular the two high-volume guys: Jaxson Robinson, and Corey Brea. This pair account for over half of Kentucky’s three-point attempts on the season, and over 60% of their made deep balls. They get hot in a hurry too. Kentucky has shot 40% or better from the perimeter in 2/3ds of their games.

They’re not alone though. UK’s bench has many other players with 30+ attempts from beyond the arc, Seniors Kerry Kriisa and Ansley Almonor being the most effective. In total, the Wildcats have six players who shoot above the national average from Threelandia. About the only one who’s not a perimeter threat is G Otega Oweh and starting PG, Lamont Butler. But they do so many other things well, that it’s really pick your poison here. And when they do shoot, they’re very effective: Both are 35%+ from the perimeter.

The Tide would be wise to assume that anyone on the floor at any time is a threat to launch a deep ball: even the Wildcats’ starting center has 31 three attempts.

In the post, their most effective big is 6’11” Andrew Carr. He’s very smart with the basketball, an above average floor shooter, and easily the most efficient offensive rebounder for the Wildcats. Any scrums for loose balls will be contested with Carr. But Carr is also a threat to step outside to force defenders to play him honest. And at 30%, he’s not a bad perimeter shooter either.

How To Watch

Saturday 18 January, 11:00 Central, ESPN National Broadcast

Prediction

I’ve emphasized offense because this pair is going to make the scoreboard operator a busy man. But that’s also been a bit of an intentional head-fake. Who wins this game is not going to come down to who gets hot from beyond the line, or is able to get to the stripe, rather whose defense is going to show up and whose team actually wants to win the paint.

I don’t think for all the admitted firepower on display it’s actually going to be won away from the basket; it’s going to be won by doing the dirty work the most consistently. Who has the most blue collar moments, who wants to fight for defensive rebounds, who wants to hit the floor, who wants to body their way through a screen, who wants to give some backside help or jump in to cut off the lane, who wants to take a charge.

This could be a game decided by the less-heralded players: Grant, Cliff (WHO NEEDS TO BE PLAYING FAR MORE — BB4), Youngblood, Little Mo — people who want to play tough. People who can play tough. I’d kill a man to bring Herb Jones in for this one.

Alabama at times has played superb defense; they have it in them. I’ve not seen that the Wildcats can do that. After Tuesday’s debacle, I don’t think motivation will be an issue for ‘Bama. Whether they can execute for 40 minutes and play smart on every possession is a question. Sadly, it’s also an open one: that’s why this game is too close to call. (And we won’t even get into the Stupidity Roulette of which officiating crew ‘Bama draws on Saturday — because we all know if it’s Doug Shows or Pat Adams, the Tide is cooked.)

Predictive modeling: Alabama -1.4 to Kentucky -2.97, four of five models lean UK by about a basket. Home court, and the Tide’s turnover woes, are mighty hard to overcome.

Alabama can win this game. But Alabama has to want to work every possession, on both ends, to make it happen.

Alabama 87
Kentucky 88

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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