*** NO VIDEO TODAY AS WE PREPARE FOR TODAY’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ***
Good Saturday morning people! We are waking up with the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center showing that they have expanded the Enhanced Risk to include much more of the western half of Alabama, to as far east as a line from Natural Bridge to Brent to Selma to Brewton. The Slight Risk covers the rest of the state. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the severe threats starting as early as 9PM tonight in the west to as late as 4AM Sunday morning as the threat exits the state in the east.
The good news for much of Alabama is that the larger tornado threat will be back to our west; however, there is a larger tornado threat over the southwestern portions of the state, which includes locations along and south and west of a line from Myrtlewood to Camden to Evergreen to Brewton. A tornado threat is there for the rest of the state, but the threat level is much less, especially the further east you go in the state. Here’s what to expect…
We could see a few light showers today, but most of the rain will come tonight as a cold front moves in. This system is moving fast, so widespread flash flooding isn’t likely, but some areas could get heavy downpours, picking up an inch or more of rain. A few spots prone to flooding might see some brief issues, but nothing major is expected. Winds are coming in from the southeast this morning, but they’ll shift to the south as the front moves closer. That will help push a warm front northward, making today feel a bit like spring. It’ll be breezy at times, but wind speeds should stay below Wind Advisory levels.
Now, let’s talk about severe weather. The strongest storms are most likely in western Alabama, but everyone needs to stay weather aware tonight, especially when this hits during the time when most will be in bed and asleep. A line of storms will move through overnight, bringing the chance of damaging winds and maybe even a tornado or two. Right now, the timing looks to be between 9PM tonight and 4AM Sunday morning, so be sure to have a way to get weather alerts while you’re sleeping.
There is the potential for the development of a few supercells out ahead of the main squall line associated with the cold front, and that is where that larger tornado threat will be over the southwestern parts of the state I mentioned earlier. Significant Tornado Parameter values are up in the 1.0 to 5.0 range on the latest run of the NAM over those locations, with the lower of those values over the northern edge. However, the main event will be with the main squall line as it moves through, bringing with it the threat of damaging thunderstorm winds up to 60 mph, and a couple of brief-spin up tornadoes that may be embedded within the line. While some hail will be possible, those risk level are much, much lower and will not be the reason for severe weather warnings.
Today will be the warmest day for a while, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. It’ll feel nice, but the clouds will make it a little gloomy. Sunday will feel much colder, with strong northwest winds behind the front. Stay safe, stay weather-aware, and have a plan in case storms get rough tonight!
Once everything moves out of the state during the morning hours on Sunday, we will dry out for a little while, but temperatures will be much cooler than today. Skies will start to slowly clear late in the day, and highs will only max out in the mid 40s in the northwest to the upper 60s in the southeast. Skies will be sunny on Monday and highs will only be in the mid 40s to the upper 50s. Another system will head our way on Tuesday, but we’ll stay dry with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 40s to the mid 60s.
I’m not going to hype up any threat of snow for any part of the state just yet on Wednesday, as we have the severe threat to get through for today. I will say temperatures will be too warm for any accumulations across much of the state, but we’ll have to watch conditions over the Tennessee Valley to the AL/TN state line. We’ll have showers move in during the predawn hours and potentially lasting into the afternoon hours. Highs in the upper 30s to the lower 60s.
While we dry out to end off the work week, it will be cold, especially on Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny, but highs will only reach the upper 20s to the upper 40s from north to south. Friday will be a tad warmer underneath sunny skies. Highs in the mid 30s to the lower 50s.
