As we are making our run to the midday hour across the state on this first day of March, which is also the first day of Meteorological Spring, temperatures are actually “spring-like” at 10:50AM, with lower 60s to the lower 70s showing up on our readings. Cortland Airport in Lawrence County was the only reading in the 50s at 59 degrees. Fort Novosel was the warm spot at 73 degrees. Birmingham was sitting at 61 degrees. Other than a few wispy clouds moving over the Tennessee Valley region, skies are sunny across the state.
Other than a few more clouds moving in from the north, skies shall remain mostly sunny and afternoon highs will climb up into the upper 50s in the extreme north, and in the lower 60s to the upper 70s from north to south for the rest of the state. For tonight, those thin clouds will continue to filter out the light from the stars over the northern half of the state, while the southern half will mainly be clear. Overnight lows will dip down into the upper 20s to the mid 40s from north to south.
With the flow across the region on Sunday, we’ll have clouds moving across the state, keeping our skies partly to mostly cloudy. Rain will remain well off to our west as we’ll have a short wave heading in our direction. With the lesser sunshine, highs will only reach the lower 50s to the upper 60s from north to south.
We’ll have a little short wave moving in our direction on Monday that may just squeeze off a few light showers over the western and northwestern parts of the state. However, the latest run from the National Blend of Models are showing we will now stay dry. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s.
As of this morning’s update, the Storm Prediction Center has nearly the entire state except for locations west of a line from Auburn to Troy to Andalusia in the equivalent of a Slight Risk for severe storms on Tuesday (valid through Wednesday 6AM CST). A small sliver of the extreme western portions of the state and back into much of Mississippi, there is an Enhanced Risk.
There will be a warm sector out ahead of an approaching cold front that will be pumping in warm and moisture-rich air from the gulf, and spreading over Alabama before the front reaches the state. With the increasing humidity, mixed in with the unseasonably warm temperatures (Tuesday’s highs in the mid 60s to the upper 70s), and increasing instability, dewpoints, and helicity, severe weather will be possible from the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, through the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, with nearly all the activity out of the state by sunrise.
Damaging winds will be possible, associated with the main squall line that will move through just ahead of the front, along with the possibility of a few spin-up tornadoes along the line. However, it is too early to be able to tell at this point if we could have supercells form out ahead of the main line. If that is the case, we could see large hail and the risk of a few stronger tornadoes. No matter what, this looks to be a rather dynamic system that will contain some hefty wind gust, especially within the main squall line and just behind.
Once the storms and the severe threat moves out on Wednesday, skies will quickly clear out and highs will remain rather nice in the lower 60s to the mid 70s across the state from northwest to southeast. Thursday looks to be another nice day as clouds will be moving in through the day. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with daytime highs in the lower 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Models have also changed for Friday, now keeping the weather dry and nice with highs in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.
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