Wow…it’s meteorological Spring today, the first of March. This begins the seasonality that is treasured on the great Pacific Northwest Coast: early Spring, Spring, Summer, early Fall. March Break (mid-March) to Canadian Thanksgiving (mid-October) are key seasons for Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.
Real Estate Market Trends
The islands real estate market continues to follow the trends of the past two plus years: lack of inventory and relatively stable pricing. The main buyer profile has continued to be a Vancouver/Lower Mainland purchaser.
The reasons for seeking a Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island property are two-fold: one, a desire to leave urban for rural (to be self-sufficient). There also continues to be an interest in preservation of capital through a real estate purchase in a unique area…emphasizing a currency concern.
There is not a lot of choice for a buyer. Most owners are not wanting to be sellers. There is always opportunity, though, and some buyers may need to consider shared ownership models as a way into a market that rarely sees first time buyers.
Islands Trust
The outcome of the Islands Trust governance model (put in place in 1974, by the provincial government) was to cap growth through strict zoning/bylaws restrictions. It’s important for buyers to read about the Islands Trust online…to pay attention to those bylaws/zoning restrictions…and to also look at the Official Community Plan and to Development Permit Area restrictions. These can supersede the original bylaws. It’s important to understand the community “rules” before buying.
Current Listings
At the moment, there are approximately 95 listings (all property types…residential, land, commercial) on the MLS system. In a more balanced market, there would be around 380 listings. Lack of inventory remains the issue, and can lead to buyer hesitations.
2024 saw the beginning of many societal changes and 2025 appears to be continuing these shifts. It can be both alarming and energizing, when one encounters serious changes. We don’t get to choose our “time”, though…just our reaction to it.
The current referencing to potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs has reminded Canadians of their inability to trade between provinces. This is something that needs to be done. The lack of this has nothing to do with outside tariffs. It makes no sense to keep provinces isolated from each other, economically.
In B.C., business groups have recently come up with a plan to support economic pro-growth options. They point out that both provincially and federally there have been no-growth policies for at least a decade and that has nothing to do with outside tariffs either. Hmmmm……
The flexing of U.S. policies that emphasize that country’s outcomes could also benefit Canada’s rethink about our own dynamics. So many talented Canadians may have moved south in past years, as Canada did not offer the same opportunities. What were our governments doing?
The concern over the impact of proposed reciprocal tariffs, from our biggest trading partner, has brought forward many different “forecasts” about the economy, going forward. Real estate is one of the pillars of economic health in Canada, and the spectrum of current forecasts ranges from “we will continue to see slow growth” to “we will see a correction/downturn”. Many scenarios talk about a softening of sales and lowering of prices, with an improving trend in 2028.
These are the same people who were insisting that the covid shutdowns of early 2020 would cause a crash and then we ended late 2020/into 2021 with “over ask” bidding wars and an erasing of inventory…plus dramatic price increases.
Our lower dollar is attracting interested U.S. buyers…although the federal government ban on foreign buyers (brought in on January 1, 2023 and put in place until January 1, 2025…then extended till January 1, 2027) may be in place, there are many exemptions and it doesn’t apply to land or to commercial options. (The ban was brought in to help solve the lack of housing dilemma).
Lots to be concerned about…this month we will find out who will replace Trudeau and also whether there will be an early federal election. We will hear the budget from the provincial government and learn about their plan to create economic strength for B.C. The question of tariffs will be answered. And so forth and so on….. It is difficult to point to a trend at this exact moment. It may take until late April or mid-May to understand the tone of the 2025 market.
Meantime: it’s a good plan to take advantage of this seasonal awakening, to enjoy the beauties of the natural world that are erupting all around us, to remember to get out and about (beachcombing, hiking, picnics, tastings, al fresco dining, farmers markets, kayaking, art gallery openings, spa retreats, sailing adventures, theatre discoveries, and day trips to companion islands….in other words, to remember to live…and to simply and calmly breathe).
Opportunity always exists…we just need to be looking. And your thoughts are? Always welcome!
