If you look at mesothelioma statistics over the past several years, you may notice a slight declining trend. If you understand the origins and history of mesothelioma, this will probably make sense to you, but even researchers and scientists at the top of their game don’t fully understand whether this trend is going to continue indefinitely.
Is it possible that we’ll continue to see mesothelioma rates decline – all the way to zero?
A Primer on Mesothelioma
Let’s start with a primer on mesothelioma, in case you aren’t familiar with this disease. Mesothelioma is a specific type of cancer, and one that develops almost exclusively in response to asbestos exposure. Asbestos itself is a formerly widely used building material; it was cheap, easy to use, and advantageous in many ways, but no one suspected it might carry such devastating risks.
As it turns out, asbestos is full of microscopic, jagged fibers that can get stuck in the mesothelial lining of your organs, including your lungs, abdomen, and heart. If left long enough, these jagged fibers can cause aggressive inflammation, which can eventually trigger the development of cancer. This typically unfolds after a latency period of years, if not decades.
The symptoms of mesothelioma vary depending on the type, stage of development, and other factors. They typically start very mild, such that you might not even notice them; for example, you might have some unexplained weight loss, a bit of physical fatigue, or some extra coughing. As this aggressive type of cancer begins to grow and spread, the symptoms begin to get worse and show themselves in different parts of the body.
Mesothelioma is a terminal disease, as there is no known cure and the disease spreads very aggressively. There are some forms of treatment that can mitigate the spread of mesothelioma or relieve some symptoms associated with it, but these tend to be somewhat limited and difficult even for experts to utilize.
The Falling Rates of Mesothelioma
Mesothelioma rates are actively declining, with only 2,803 new cases reported in the United States in 2021. There are a few major reasons for this, but the most obvious and most important is the decline of asbestos use in most applications. Since scientists figured out that asbestos was so harmful, it has been strongly regulated, controlled, and abated. Most of us will go our entire lives without ever encountering asbestos, and those of us who do will be more likely to recognize it and avoid it.
Could They Ever Fall to Zero?
Is it possible for mesothelioma rates to ever fall to zero?
Possibly not.
- The persistence of asbestos. Even though we thoroughly understand asbestos at this point, it persists as a construction material. It’s still used in a handful of specific applications, and there are many countries where asbestos is barely regulated at all.
- The latency period. Remember that mesothelioma takes many years, if not decades, to develop. Even if no one will be exposed to asbestos moving forward, we’ll still be in store for several decades of people getting diagnosed.
- Difficulty in prevention. Preventing and controlling mesothelioma, even in the early stages, is very difficult once a person has been exposed to asbestos. It’s unlikely that there will ever be an immunization for it.
- Difficulty in treatment. Treatment is also difficult. Once mesothelioma begins to manifest, treatment options are extremely limited and not typically very effective.
- Global impacts. Even if we’re somehow able to completely control mesothelioma in the United States, the disease is likely to continue having a global impact.
Reasons for Optimism
There are some reasons for optimism, however.
- Better scientific understanding. Scientists and researchers are constantly working to better understand mesothelioma and asbestos. Although we have a robust body of knowledge already, it’s possible that we’ll discover something new that allows us to prevent or control this disease in a new way.
- More active asbestos mitigation efforts. Asbestos production and use is actively declining in most areas of the world. It’s likely that this trend will continue, or perhaps even accelerate, making mesothelioma rarer and rarer.
- Improved treatment methods. Our current selection of treatment methods can keep mesothelioma at bay in some cases. If we develop superior treatment methods in the future, we may be able to control or eradicate this disease.
- Potential for prevention. It’s unlikely, but still possible that someday we’ll find an effective strategy for preventing mesothelioma. Protective equipment can reduce your chances of developing mesothelioma if you’re exposed to asbestos, but there may be even more viable strategies to discover.
Even if it’s very unlikely, it is possible that mesothelioma rates will eventually fall to zero. In the meantime, we can continue enjoying declining rates of mesothelioma – and do what we can to improve our understanding of this deadly disease.
