The biggest sporting event in the United States also provides one of the greatest opportunities for ticket inflation, as desperate fans pay top dollar and more for a seat. Football fans travelled from all over the world to see their team play and watch Kendrick Lamar et al in the half-time show.
Like any major final in any competition, inflated ticket prices are part of the package, but we may have found one of the few exceptions as airfares to New Orleans were lower last week than in the same week in 2024. So, how on earth did that happen?
Significant Week On Week Capacity Growth Before Super Bowl
One of the beauties of the Super Bowl is that from a seasonality perspective it is at one of the lowest points of the calendar year and airlines can make sure that they have spare capacity to use in the weeks around the Super Bowl. The build-up in capacity can be seen in the chart below where last week’s capacity was 24% higher than in the middle of January and 9% higher than the previous week, at just under 200,000 one-way seats.
Looking in slightly more detail, Southwest are the largest scheduled airline operating to New Orleans with around one-third of all capacity over the week of the event giving them twice as large a share as their nearest competitor Spirit Airlines, who appear to have flexed some of their spare capacity under their current Chapter 11 re-organisation process. Indeed, every major airline has added over 15% more capacity to the city than they operated in the middle of January and all, except American Airlines, have added capacity week on week for Super Bowl LIX.
All of this means that next year San Francisco, the host of Super Bowl LX, should expect to see some benefit at least in terms of capacity. And importantly for fans – airfares may be lower than you would expect, based on how fares have changed to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX.
Do Plane Ticket Prices Increase for the Super Bowl?
Using our latest average airfare data we looked at how fares changed in week 6 this year against last year, initially to see how much they increased around the time of Super Bowl. But with the increases in capacity we were surprised by what the data revealed; airline ticket prices fell, and significantly! Looking at some of the largest routes to New Orleans those capacity increases led to some sharp reductions in airfares, with Nashville the most noticeable reporting a near 73% reduction in fares on a capacity increase of 40%; the combination of both Southwest and Spirit Airlines operating on the route may of course be a key factor. Only two of the twenty-one routes to New Orleans we reviewed saw a year-on-year increase in average airfares; Austin and Phoenix.
Major sporting events and concerts typically result in average airfares increasing. In most markets, particularly given the supply chain, airlines do not have sufficient flexibility or available capacity to make short-term increases in capacity; perhaps only the United States and China can do so at the moment. All of which means that if planning a trip to Superbowl LX in San Francisco next year, hanging on to the last moment to grab a plane ticket may result in a bargain opportunity, assuming of course that you can find a ticket for the game in the first place!
