2025 Local Election Preview – returnoftheliberal

It’s a curious thing when Local Elections happen and the party with the most to lose is the official opposition, not the Government, but that’s what is likely to happen this year. After 1997 the Tories had a lengthy lost weekend at a national level, but in fact started reviving at council level the year after. That is highly unlikely to happen this year. The Conservatives are defending a high watermark, a freakishly good result for them in 2021 created by the short-lived vaccine bounce that put wind in their sails for a few months.
This year the Tories are in for a tough time, they have an unpopular leader (just like they did until David Cameron took charge), and their primacy as Britain’s leading right-wing party is being challenged by Reform UK.
The more astute Local Election previews in the national press have pointed out that there will be many close results, with many County Council divisions won on 30% of the vote, or even less. In truth, local elections have become an increasingly crowded market in the last 10 years thanks to the rise of independents and localist parties.
As divisions are much bigger than District Council wards localists will probably feature a lot less, but we’ll see multi-party contests becoming the norm, with five parties polling over 10%.

Knocking more bricks out of the wall
What would be a good result for the Lib Dems? Consider the long term trajectory – during the coalition years we lost 2,200 seats, mainly to Labour. Since 2015 we’ve regained 1,600 seats, mainly from the Tories. Conventional wisdom suggests we’d start to revive in Labour facing areas, but start to recede in Tory areas where we’d no longer benefit from a big protest vote. That dynamic won’t happen in 2025 however, Labour are defending very little, the rise of Reform and a Tory party now perceived as Reform Lite means Ed Davey’s Middle England play makes a lot of sense.
We’ve spent the last few years knocking down the Blue Wall, we thought that was over, but it will continue for this year at least. Overall this set of elections is a bit smaller than usual, because of a Local Government restructuring imposed on the country by Labour that nobody asked for, and wasn’t in their manifesto. I feel really sorry for people in Surrey, for example, who have to put up with a rotten Tory administration for another year because of this. If there’s a main party backlash against this – we’ll find out in 2026.
The bigger picture is that there will be 1,641 council divisions/wards up for election across 24 councils. I’ve picked six contests that are ones-to-watch for Lib Dems for one reason or another. Seeing as I get complaints every year about these previews – I don’t pretend this is the totality of contests that matter and if you feel that strongly you are, of course, free to write your own blog if you feel left out . . .

Shropshire
Shropshire is one of several contests where the council is distinctly ‘in play’ and the Lib Dems are the main challengers to a Tory admin that’s been in situ since 2005. It would take only a few gains to relieve the Tories of their majority though the Lib Dems will want to go much further than that to snuff out any Conservative/Indie coalition or minority administration.
There are two key local factors to look out for here – at last year’s General Election Helen Morgan was returned with a thumping majority (against all seat modelling predictions) and Matthew Green came within a whisker or returning to parliament. Will these results feed into this year’s election? Also Shropshire Council has become known for making some terrible financial decisions over the years – is the electorate sufficiently engaged and motivated to punish the Tories for their misdeeds?

Wiltshire
Wiltshire – the county of my birth – has been part of a Lib Dem revival in Central Southern England in the last few years. We’re the main challengers to the Tories here and a look at the StopTheTories.vote tactical voting website shows a sea of amber when it comes to tactical voting recommendations for the county of impressive spires and prehistoric monuments.
When Ed Davey talks of two horse races that probably applies to Wiltshire more than anywhere, as the Lib Dems have 29 councillors and Labour has only 3 on a 98-seat council. While Wiltshire is not remote, it has been in Tory control since 2000 and has large swathes of rural hinterland, so has been lightly canvassed for a long time. In such circumstances we might see Reform eat into the Tory vote more than you’d expect in picture postcard villages.

Gloucestershire
If the Lib Dems have a good election they will flip the status of Gloucestershire. There I’ve said it. The Tories are currently running a minority administration and have only one independent to play ball with. Any significant movement against the Tories will see the Lib Dems as the largest single party, or at the very least forming a traffic light coalition with the Greens and Labour.
Gloucestershire has toggled between No Overall Control and a Conservative majority throughout its history. What’s new with the county is that the Lib Dems have been gaining ground in Gloucester city to add to our traditional strength in Cheltenham. This contest will tell us a lot about whether the Tories can maintain any great traction in particularly affluent parts of Southern rural England where house prices are eye wateringly high and young people are thin on the ground.

Cornwall
At one point in the 2000s the Lib Dems really dominated Cornish politics, winning all the Westminster seats here. We fell right back due to demographic changes and the fact that many people had voted for us despite our pro-EU stance, not because of it. That didn’t matter hugely until the referendum came along. It must have been a factor in Cornwall Council going Tory for the first time in 2021 (Lib Dems won it twice before in 1993 and 2005).
This year’s election will be a verdict on the Tories that have delivered little of what Cornwall needs (better infrastructure, social housing, tourism friendly policies), and on Brexit – will the Cornish recognise they were sold a pup and turn their backs on what seemed a good idea at the time? If so the Lib Dems and independents are likely to be the main beneficiaries, with some interesting NOC negotiations to follow on. Again we’ll see if new Lib Dem MPs, such as Ben Maguire, start to provide a halo effect down to local levels here.

Surf’s up in Cornwall, thankfully the instructor is not related to Ed Davey

Lancashire
In 2021 Lancashire Lib Dems were on the wrong end of every tight result and we were left with only a few amber flecks on the map. Since then we’ve perked up, becoming the official opposition on Preston City Council (often cited as a model Labour admin) and came close to regaining Burnley parliamentary seat last year.
All these gains have been hard won with small local teams burning a lot of shoe rubber to get our message across. Lancashire has a long history of progressive politics, embracing Gandhi in 1931 and standing up for black US servicemen in the Battle of Bamber Bridge in 1943 – will we see significant tactical voting in Lancashire to keep Reform out more than in other parts of the country? If so, Lib Dems will be at the forefront of any such push.

County Durham
Back in 2021 the Lib Dems formed admins in Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, but the surprise package was County Durham, which had been under Labour control since the great Local Government reorganisation of 1973. The local Lib Dems had a significant presence on the council since 2008, but managed to pull their boat up the beach enough to form a coalition that’s been led by Amanda Hopgood for the past four years.
Durham contains plenty of post-industrial and ex-mining communities – Easington, Sedgefield and the Wear Valley – not natural Lib Dem territory but the party has managed to cut through in places like Aycliffe and Consett (made famous by the Phileas Fogg snacks factory) through hard work, high engagement and offering a sensible alternative to the two major parties.
How well Durham Lib Dems fare this time depends on whether they get any credit for maintaining a stable yet multi-party administration for a full term. One thing is for sure, we’re unlikely to see a return to the one party dominance Labour enjoyed here for decades.