As 2024 draws to a close, I have been thinking about how our information and communication technology industry, including optical networking, is evolving and changing. Some of these changes may be dramatic, with immediate impact, while others may be incremental, with their impacts taking years to be fully realized. It is in this spirit of reflection about the past and mindfulness for the future that I began a conversation with our marketing team about what surprised each one of us the most in 2024. I hope you find something in our list that resonates with you and the environment where you work – helping to connect people and applications to the cloud and each other every day.
Bill Kautz – Almost 10 Million in 2024
What surprised me the most in 2024 was the magnitude of the growth in data center optics used in interconnecting AI processors within AI data center compute clusters. In 2023, the latest 800G data center optics reached over 1M units (Cignal AI estimate), but I would have never expected that it would have reached >9M units in 2024 (Cignal AI, estimated before year end), just short of 10x growth over 2023. This shows just how quickly AI applications are driving outsized optics demand growth. We are now at an inflection point in data center optics that requires greater vendor innovation, vertical integration, and scale to keep up with the rapid pace of increasing optical connectivity speeds and the huge growth in the volume of AI-related optics.
Christian Uremovic – Powering AI
My biggest surprise in 2024 was the emergence of AI driving massive growth in data center energy consumption. There simply is not enough power to scale out existing data centers and/or build new ones in the same geographic areas. Data centers are being distributed across multiple geographic locations and across multiple power grids to reduce their impact and enable more capacity and processing growth. This is driving more data transmission among data centers, including increased deployment of optical line systems.
Teresa Monteiro – Managing IPoDWDM
The topic that most surprised me in 2024 was the rise of IPoDWDM. In nearly every customer conversation I had in 2024, network operators wanted to discuss how best to operationalize the deployment of coherent pluggables into routers. Our discussions centered around control architectures, such as the need for an IP controller, optical controller, or orchestrator; their roles in monitoring and configuring the IPoDWDM network; and how they interwork. Additionally, we discussed protocols and data models most suited to manage optical pluggables. The market and industry forums have not yet agreed on a common approach to these topics. In fact, I am not sure they will in the short term, with network scenarios, modes of operation, and requirements varying significantly among operators. The good news is that there are vendor-agnostic controllers available that can fit into various operational scenarios and equipment choices to operationalize IPoDWDM today.
Fady Masoud – Augmenting Reality or Ant-Man
Coherent pluggables are small. Devices like our ICE-X 800G pluggable come in QSFP-DD packages that easily fit in the palm of your hand. But how do we show folks what’s inside a pluggable? Like in the movie Ant-Man, we as humans need to shrink, or we need to make the pluggable bigger. That’s exactly the approach we took with our ICE-X 800G augmented reality demonstration, where we walked through key components, detailed vertical integration, and advanced packaging attributes. The thing that surprised me most was how well we were able to use augmented reality in global customer meetings and industry events to create an informative, immersive, and entertaining experience. With overwhelmingly positive feedback, we are already working on a new AR demo for OFC 2025. Taking a step back, it’s interesting that AR is demonstrating the optical technology that will support its increasing bandwidth demands for the future.
Geoff Bennett – Beyond SDM?
As I attended submarine network shows this year, the conversation that came up more and more often was, can we scale beyond 24-pair spaced division multiplexed (SDM) subsea cables, and even if we can, should we? Can we repair high-fiber-count cables within a reasonable time for calm weather windows? Can we get enough electrical power into trans-oceanic cables with high fiber (and core) counts? Multi-core fiber can add capacity within a given fiber pair count, but it could take more than twice as long to splice and test a dual-core fiber than today’s single-core fiber, and those cores must still be powered. Some believe the only viable near-term option is to lay more submarine cables. However, more cables require more complex permitting and fail to address the fact that some parts of our oceans are already quite crowded. With SubOptic in June 2025, I will be looking to see if a consensus is taking shape.
Paul Momtahan – Hollow-core Fiber Traction
Having attended a number of optical conferences this year, including TOP, OFC, and ECOC, the big surprise for me was the excitement and progress on hollow-core fiber (HCF). At OFC there were 12 papers/presentations on HCF, while at ECOC there were 16. HCF has the potential to be a game changer for optical networking. In discussion with network operators, different HCF benefits resonated the most – for some it was the ultra-low latency, for others the potential for ultra-low loss resulting in fewer ILA sites, and for others the potential for much wider spectrum. One key change I observed this year was the increasing breadth of operators, universities, equipment vendors, and fiber vendors working on HCF.
Kurt Raaflaub – Stimulus Funding Takes Time
What surprised me most this year was that it took the U.S. Department of Commerce’s NTIA all of 2024 to approve all 56 states’ and territories’ initial proposals for Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) funding. Louisiana was first in December 2023, while Texas was last in November 2024. It will take another 365 days from each approval notification to award each region’s sub-project areas to bidding internet service providers (ISPs). This hints that BEAD’s $42.45 billion in funds will not begin flowing in earnest until the second half of 2025. This is why I was glad to see this year many ISPs leverage other funding mechanisms to bridge the digital divide. BEAD funding equates to less than 10% of the annual U.S. broadband market investment. The Fiber Broadband Association has presented that U.S. broadband market investment will exceed $100 billion per year starting next year when combining government stimulus and private equity funding mechanisms.
Jon Baldry – Next Next-generation PON
One of the big surprises for me in 2024 is the speed that the PON market is moving toward commercial deployment of higher-speed PON technology beyond 10G XGS-PON. 25G PON is already being deployed and 50G PON demonstrations and field trails are underway. This is good news for optical vendors as it shows the demand for dedicated higher-capacity services over PON single-fiber infrastructure. If a 25G PON supports two customers with dedicated 10G services today, how quickly will PON operators need to support even higher-capacity services with perhaps dedicated 25G, 50G, or even 100G connectivity that exceeds the capacity of even a 50G PON solution?
Tim Doiron – Connections Matter Most
I have always found product ideation and market introduction incredibly satisfying. And being a part of this industry at such an amazing time at the intersection of AI and optical networking makes it even better. While my love affair with technology hasn’t waned, I was reminded in 2024 that it’s people and connections that matter most. We held a Xchange event in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam earlier this year. It was my first visit to Vietnam, but it won’t be my last. The friendly people, the fantastic food, and the sights and sounds were all incredible. So, my biggest surprise in 2024 was Vietnam. We live in a big world, and it’s connections that matter most – connections to people, the cloud, and each other. And a bowl of amazing pho doesn’t hurt either.
On behalf of all of us here at Infinera, happy holidays and happy new year.
We look forward to seeing you at a meeting, webinar, or conference in 2025.
Safe travels everyone.
