🎙️ NEW PODCAST WITH CHRIS MACINTOSH
We have a new podcast to share with you. This time, Chris joined Danny on his CapitalCosm show for another thought-provoking discussion.
They dove into some of the biggest macro shifts (and other market events) taking place today as well as the opportunities on Chris’ radar, such as…
- Why Chris sees a lot of asymmetry in specific tech stocks right now (no, he hasn’t gone crazy about the Mag 7).
- The West and signs of a declining empire. How things like tariffs, wars, political pressure as a strategy historically always coincided with the end phase of a cycle.
- Why the news about the dollar’s death is greatly exaggerated. Given the earlier point about the West’s decline, this might sound counterintuitive. But the fact is that with Europe’s economy imploding (and investors fleeing), the US is the only market that can absorb all that capital seeking for a new home.
- Chris’s take on the Trump meme coin and Donald Trump’s change of heart on bitcoin (you might remember that the Donald was very vocally anti-crypto during his first presidency).
- What to make of Mark Zuckerberg’s recent pro-free speech shift.
- The growing North-South alliance. Donald Trump’s push for Greenland, Canada, and Panama is not a coincidence. Rather, it’s part of a much greater geopolitical shift with massive consequences — not just for the US but for many other countries around the world.
- Practical tips for building a robust asymmetric portfolio.
- And mucho mas!
You can listen to the entire podcast on Youtube here.
💸 CHECKING IN ON VENTURE CAPITAL
Some thoughts on a topic we don’t often discuss in these writings — venture capital and early stage/startup investing.
If you’re a long-time reader of our Insider Newsletter, you’ll be familiar with our stance on venture capital.
We often talked about how the entire VC industry is merely a derivative of the “growth” bubble, which itself has been caused by central bankers pressuring bond yields lower and lower (the zero or even negative rate phenomenon), forcing more and more capital further and further down the risk curve.
It’s no coincidence that — with rates in an uptrend — VC as an asset class is not as hot as it was a few years ago.
We were reminded of an old Insider Newsletter issue from back in 2023, where Chris wrote on this very topic and said…
The coming implosion (give it 12 months or less) as the venture capitalists books are going to begin to be forced to mark-to-market their positions is going to be epic. I say they’re going to be forced to do this because most VC funded firms have 12 months of runway, and pray tell, who’s going to keep lending money to mostly (not all mind) cash incinerating Silicon Valley startups? So start your stopwatches and let’s clock back in 12 months from now or so (probably less).
More than 12 months has passed since then, but the reason we bring this up today is because we came across an insightful Twitter X thread on the state of venture capital and thought you might find it insightful.
🍀 POSITION YOURSELF TO GET LUCKY
You might remember how a few weeks ago, we discussed China and made a case for owning Chinese tech stocks.
Among other things, we noted there’s something that most investors don’t appreciate enough. The fact that China has an edge when it comes to AI — purely on the basis that yuuuge amounts of energy are required to power AI applications… and China’s electricity costs are a fraction of those in the US.
Here’s how we wrapped it up:
We don’t think it would take a lot for Chinese tech stocks to go much higher than where they are today. Certainly, stranger things have happened in the markets.
Then, just days later, DeepSeek turned the tech world upside down…
In short, over in China, a group of geeks came up with an AI that beats the pants off ChatGPT (and most other competitors)… for a fraction of the cost.
Did we know all this was coming? No. After all, we’re just a small team of hedgies sitting in their underpants.
But we did see that, purely from a valuation perspective, Chinese tech stocks were dirt cheap (sporting earnings multiples that would be more appropriate for stodgy, low growth industries) while delivering record earnings.
Then, suddenly, more and more folks started waking up to this reality, too. Here’s Deutsche Bank getting all giddy about Chinese tech stocks.
Pull out a magnifying glass and check out that last paragraph:
…global investors tend to be heavily underweight China, just as they were avoiding fossil fuels several years ago — until the market punished those taking non-market based decisions.
Sounds like something we would probably write. But let’s not get sidetracked here. On the heels of the DeepSeek breakthrough, Chinese tech stocks caught a bid (after years of being left for dead, we should add)…
Somehwat ironically, they are now beating the pants off their US counterparts so far this year…nts off their US counterparts so far this year.
Of course, we don’t want to be patting ourselves on the back too soon. What we want to highlight here is something that has served us very well in the markets, time and again (and it’s a guiding principle we use for our Insider portfolio recommendations as well)…
When you do your homework and buy what’s cheap, the market gods tend to smile upon you.
🤣 WEEKLY HUMOUR
With the elites having recently concluded their annual pilgrimage to Davos, here’s something to ponder on as you sip your latte (with almond milk, we hope!) through a mushy paper straw… you know, to save the planet.
Have a great weekend!
