We frequently say our blessings when ‘Bama doesn’t have to hit the road in SEC play. But Tide fans should throw an extra hosanna in there this week, because mercifully Alabama gets the No. 3 Florida Gators in Tuscaloosa. And, sadly, given the banged up Tide roster, that home court may only marginally offset the degree of difficulty.
For the third time in two-and-a-half weeks, Alabama faces a Final Four-type team (and, at the end of the weekend, will have played No. 1, 3, and 5 in the span). But it is perhaps the toughest foe to date. It is a Florida team that is getting healthy at the right time, runs the floor well, scores promiscuously, has more depth than the Mariana Trench, more length than Ron Jeremy, and when they’re on could be the best team in the nation.
At the beginning of the season, the hot NBA name was Nate Oats. Fast-forward four months, and that name is Todd Golden, the Gator wunderkind, who has taken a good-but-underachieving roster, and built a monster in less than three years.
It won’t be easy on Senior Night. In fact, I think this is probably the best team top-to-bottom that Alabama will play all year.
Tale of the Tape:
No. 6 Alabama (23-6, 12-4 T-2nd) No. 3 Florida (25-4, 12-4 T-2nd)
Spread: Alabama -3
Opponent KenPom: 4th (4 offense, 8 defense, 70 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 4th (9 offense, 9 defense, 54 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 6th (9 offense, 12 defense, 68 tempo)
Opponent NET: 4 (6-4 Q1, 15-4 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 5
Opponent Best Win: @ Auburn (2)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Georgia (33)
UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 29 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (3 Off, 33 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (10-6 Q1, 17-6 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 31 (N) Oregon
Just a quick Xs and Os section before we get to the keys to the game. And it’s necessary here, because Todd Golden’s offense combines the best of two worlds. It is a high-screen motion offense on one hand — one that also hearkens back to the days of pre-Bobby Knight ball reversal around the perimeter — and it is a four-out on the other.
Dubbed “Astroball” it’s not quite like anything we’ve seen before, and it catches a lot of opponents off guard for that reason:
There is not a lot of standing around dribbling, nor is there a lot of two- and three-man motion or complex rolling screen sets. The emphasis is on one quick high screen, one quick pass, and then a fast decision with the basketball: penetrate, give-and-go, or shoot with one of the many perimeter threats the Gators have.
It puts unique stressors on defenses, provided you have the right roster of decisive ballhandlers, impact post guys who really should be doubled, players capable of putting the ball on the floor, and outside threats. Florida, unfortunately, has them all. In particular, it is most difficult for opposing backcourts to guard — the passing is fast, it is largely safe, and there just aren’t many occasions for defenders to step into passing lanes. You have to pick pockets, play man-sound, and hope that you can force the Gators into a bad look — all while having enough beef on the blocks to limit the Gators to a one-shot possession. Teams like Tennessee are positioned to do that, so it’s no coincidence that they handed UF their worst loss of the year. Likewise, Georgia got the best of Florida by likewise winning their battles down low, while harassing Gata into one-and-done trips down the floor.
And while Florida is not a fast team, it will take quick shots if they spot a good look early into their possession. Like Auburn, they also generate a lot of their tempo from fast breaks off turnovers. It is a very challenging, 94-foot offense that is just as good scoring off mistakes as they are finding their own points.
So, how does the Tide get this win?
- Settle in for a shootout — Golden and Oats have tended to play higher scoring games. For all of their strengths, Florida has many of the same weaknesses as Alabama, particularly in TOs. That’s simply going to happen with as many passes as these teams make. In fact, outside of Alabama and Tennessee, Florida is the third-most turnover-prone team in the Ken Pom Top 20. Expect a lot of break points, a lot of mistakes going the other way down the court, and a lot of early shots in possession. As to the latter: For the Tide, those quick shots are probably going to come on perimeter jumpers (and Florida will surrender a lot of them). While for Florida, that is likely going to be quick dribble penetration or dump-offs down low to one of Florida’s three towering post players. If the Gators catch you napping setting up the defense, they’ll take you off the dribble or drop a quick-hitter in the paint.
- Find Secondary Shooters Early, Or Make The Extra Pass— Florida’s defense has been so good because they are at their best when they get to set up in half court. In particular, they excel at shutting down the post with one of their five players that hit 6’9” or above. While Florida as a whole is not a large team, the “tall” positions are very tall, with star PF Alex Condon hitting 6’11,” their big package with a 7’1” center, and three other forwards at 6’9” or above. Alabama is one of the few teams with length to contest that many tall guys in the backcourt, but few of the Tide’s options are natural post scorers. That makes it incumbent upon Alabama to force the issue: don’t let UF get set up. And, if they do hunker down, be smart with the basketball on every pass, every possession. Florida’s uptempo defense is its Achilles. Look for the post early, and if it’s not there, make a second pass to a free perimeter man. If you play Florida straight-up on the outside, they’ll turn you over or double you. In the half court and in the second-half of the possession the guards are dangerous. They’re a lot more manageable early. And that holds true for the interior as well. Alabama should optimally strive to get the shot off before the 14-second mark.
- Make Florida A One-Shot Team — The Gators are second in the SEC and fourth nationally in second-chance points. They’re not gifted shooters per se, but they are elite offensive rebounders: 8th in the country. You cannot, absolutely cannot, give this team second chances to score. They’ll kill you. Florida gets about 29% of its nightly output off of second-looks at the basket. Even conceding that their talented trio of guards are going to cook the Tide from time to time, or that ‘Bama’s backcourt is going to get taken off the dribble, there is no bad time to start playing position defense. You may lose that first battle, but damn sure do not give them another bite at the apple.
- Reconcile Yourself To Big Plays…Just Make Fewer Mistakes Than Florida: The frenzied pace these two play at means there will be plenty of mistakes. Probably 25 total turnovers or so. That’s just going to happen. Alabama’s mission here is to have fewer mistakes — or at least as many — as the Gators. It will be fun basketball. It will be impressive, athletic basketball. It won’t always be pretty basketball, if discipline is your thing. That also means that if Florida makes a three, you need one; if the Gators throw down, set up the ‘oop to Cliff. Alabama has to match Florida big play for big play, both for good and ill.
- Feed Off The Crowd, Drop The Hammer — Florida’s biggest overall team weakness has been their road play. Four conference losses, all on the road, and just a 6-4 record against Q1 teams. When things start going downhill for UF, they can spiral a bit. If the Tide gets the Mausoleum rockin’, feed off the energy. Go for the kill shot. And, if UA can snatch a decent lead, hammer down. It’s Senior Night: leave nothing on the floor, and leave no doubt.
- For The Love Of God, Hit Your Free Throws — I hate to sound like a broken record here, but yes, this is another game that is going to be decided by a razor-thin margin. If the Tide hits their SEC average on Saturday, those final 30 seconds don’t matter. Alabama cannot put this in anyone’s hands but their own. Florida is, even compared to the Tide, a miserable free throw shooting squad. Alabama should get to the line as much as, perhaps more, than the Gators. Make those trips count. They’re called “free” for a reason. And they just might be what either helps ‘Bama claim a 1-seed, or drops them down to a 3-line when the smoke clears.
How To Watch
ESPN2, 7 Central, Wednesday 5 March 25
Prediction
Florida doesn’t have the starting lineup of Auburn. They don’t have the transcendent talent like Duke. They don’t have a senior-laden roster like the Cougars. Or the size of Creighton. Or the shooting of Purdue. Or the defense of Tennessee. But they have enough of all of these things to be elite on both sides of the ball.
But, let’s not pretend Alabama is exactly table scraps either. The Tide’s much-maligned defense is still in the Top 10% nationally in efficiency. They are the nation’s best rebounding team. They’re a better perimeter shooting team, a better floor shooting team, and a better free throw shooting team. They have more veteran presence. They’re playing at home on Senior Night, and I just don’t see the Crimson Tide losing this game.
We’ll say this game is off the hook from the opening tip, haymakers are swung all night, neither team can fully put the other away. And, clinging to a precarious lead with the clock winding down, some late free throws from Seniors Sears, Grant and Youngblood sew it up…But it’s going to be a wild ride getting there.
Alabama 105
Florida 101
Hope for the best,
Roll Tide.
Here’s your game thread. Sound off below
