How to watch Alabama vs Kentucky in SEC tournament: Preview, TV info, odds

What a week can do for perceptions and confidence, huh? Just a week ago, Nate Oats was hoping his team would show up in Auburn and play for pride.

This week, he’s even back to yapping again!

Meanwhile, Kentucky was surging a week ago, finally getting healthy, winning close games by playing a modicum of defense…and then disaster struck last night, as starting PG Lamont Butler went down again; the third time he’s injured the same shoulder since January.

Let’s just say that Mark Pope, despite listing Butler as a game-time decision, does not seem to be sandbagging here. Butler’s almost certainly going to be absent tonight in a game where both teams every guard they can find.

“I mean, you go through so many emotions. It’s hard to explain. I was really proud of our guys and our team because your heart is just breaking for Lamont. We already have Jaxson [Robinson] sitting over there. Now Lamont misses the opportunity to be a part of this. It is devastating. It’s devastating, guys, for him.

“It’s like a gut punch. You’re dealing with that emotion but trying to put it away so you can stay focused on the game. Our guys did an unbelievable job of doing that.

“We’ll put it together piece by piece. I’m praying like crazy, I will be, that he can find his way back on the floor at some point this year. It just doesn’t seem fair. This is not a fair game. I’m not saying that, but man, I would like so badly for him to be able to step on a court again. We’ll see how it goes.”

“I’m not going to put him in harm’s way, for sure,” Pope said of whether or not Butler would play Friday night.”

That seems a lot worse than just missing the rest of the SEC Tournament too, doesn’t it?

For what it’s worth, don’t believe Nate Oats when he says that Derrion Reid is “gametime” either. He’s still not practicing 5-on-5, and if he sees any action it will be just as a smoke screen (as we saw in the Auburn meeting), and to get him on the court. Reid will return during the NCAA tournament, if at all. We’ve maintained that for a month, we’re standing by it. And honestly, this isn’t the game where Reid’s defensive talents will be necessary in any event. ‘Bama and UK play a tempo three-and-rim game: It’s not a contest that will be won on the wings, rather the post and backcourt.

And so we find ourselves again here: the (real) SEC’s winningest programs square off in the SEC tournament, in what has seemingly become an annual ritual. Unfortunately, it has been as lopsided for the ‘Cats as the regular season meetings have been, with UK sporting a 17-2 record vs. the Tide, and a 6-1 record in quarters. Alabama is second in the league, with 8 SEC Tourney titles. Wanna’ guess who’s first? Yup…these guys, with 31 of them,

So, it’s a rivalry of sorts, at least on ‘Bama’s end, as the Tide is trying frantically to keep up with the Joneses. And, of late, the Tide have punched at least equally with their long-time tormentors, including winning both games this season.

Can ‘Bama get a third win here, as the two most injured teams in the SEC (and among the most injured in the nation), try to go into the NCAA Tournament with some momentum?

That is going to depend on a few things. Let’s see what they are.

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Tale of the Tape:
No. 5 Alabama (24-7, 12-5 3rd) @ No. 15 Kentucky (27-3, 14-3 1st)

Spread: Alabama -4.5

Opponent KenPom: 15 (7 offense, 56 defense, 27 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 26 (15 offense, 35 defense, 109 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 3rd (1 offense, 12 defense, 124 tempo)
Opponent NET: 13 (11-9 Q1, 12-10 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 9
Opponent Best Win: 1 @ Duke
Opponent Worst Loss: 47 @ Vandy

UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 29 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (3 Off, 33 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (11-7 Q1, 19-7 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 2 v Houston (LOL. Knocked Auburn to 3rd)
UA Worst Loss: No. 28 (N) Oregon

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If you’re Nate Oats and Mark Pope, you just take your Prilosec and buckle up: It’s going to be a fast 40 minutes, with a lot of open floor, a lot of fast breaks, and a profligate number of turnovers and perimeter shots in equal measure.

Fun to watch, but it has to be dyspeptic as hell to coach against. For ‘Bama though, you want to keep doing what you’ve done against these guys in both prior meetings, particularly in Tuscaloosa

• Pick two, and shut them down from the perimeter — With Butler almost-certainly Butler absent, so goes one of the best offensive options for the ‘Cats, one of their better three-point shooters, and one of their rare great FT guys. But, like Auburn, Kentucky has four other great shooters. So, that leaves a combination of Koby Brea, Jaxson Robinson, Ansley Almonor, and team MVP Otega Oweh to contend with. As ‘Bama did against Auburn on the Plains, you pick your poison here. Alabama can win with two of these guys going off. But you cannot let all four of them get into the teens: Balanced backcourt scoring kills. Be mindful particularly of Brea off the bench. He plays 12% of the total minutes, is the best shooter from the perimeter, and accounts for 22% of all their three-point attempts. Almonor is a similar guy: he’s a deep ball specialist. So if Oweh and Jaxson want to get into the 20s, but ‘Bama can silence thee two bench snipers, they’ve put themselves in great position to win. Or some other similar combination. But Alabama can probably not win if all of them are in the teens, or three of these guys are going for 20 points.
• Get to rim, get to the free throw line — Kentucky, being a fairly undisciplined unit, fouls a lot, especially at the guards. In the Tide’s prior meetings, ‘Bama won the free throw battle and war, getting the stripe more (an average of 23-per), and shot 80%+ in both games. It particularly mattered in the 5-point game at Rupp. On a neutral-but-hostile floor (and the ‘Cats fans always sell-out the SECT), it’s incumbent upon Alabama to continue being the aggressor and move downhill to the basket. Just because Kentucky will surrender jump shots doesn’t mean ‘Bama has to always settle for them. In a war of attrition, put some of their backcourt on the pine for stretches. It’s equally important that ‘Bama’s deeper frontcourt take advantage of the pedestrian Wildcourt bigs. The Tide won the rebounding battle in both meetings, because Alabama is better than this group down low. So hit the glass, get your layups and get to the stripe. (And FFS, once you’re there, hit them. Even in ‘Bama’s win at Auburn, the Tide still missed a third of their freebies…the usually-reliable Tigers were just a bit worse, is all.)
• Run the Wildcats ragged — The Kentucky bench isn’t as deep as you’d like to see for a tempo team. Alabama had great success in both prior meetings putting their foot to the gas and daring the Wildcats to keep pace. They could not. And in the Tuscaloosa matchup, a beat-up Kentucky squad was sucking air in the second half. The Tide’s conditioning is superior and they play at a faster clip. UK wants to do the same, but no one does it quite like Alabama does. If Alabama forces Kentucky to play their game, the Tide win this one.
• Minimize turnovers — Kentucky hangs on to the ball very well. With four seniors and a junior in the backcourt, that is to be expected. Alabama needs to minimize their mistakes, or at least keep this stat close. In the Rupp game, ‘Bama had just 8; in the Tuscaloosa meeting, ‘Bama was close to their average with 13, but harassed the Wildcats into 15 miscues.
• Build on the IBOB confidence — Both of these teams are battle-tested, for sure. Kentucky won a record eight-games against the Top 15. For all that, they are still a .500 group against elite teams. Alabama has played tougher, won as many, and lost fewer of them (to say nothing of the far more numerous tourney-type Q2 teams that ‘Bama beat). They needed to get their mojo back, get their legs under them, get their confidence back. Those have all been settled, so now it’s time to go into the postseason expecting to win but working for it by doing all the little things that it takes to get there. Alabama has been to the Sweet 16 three of the last four years and made the Final Four last season. Kentucky cannot say that: they’re the underdog for a reason.

If, for some reason, you missed the two prior matchups, and want a good look at what the Wildcats bring to the table, we did an extensive preview of Mark Pope’s five-out system earlier this season. Or, if you need a refresher, hit the link below:

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How To Watch

SEC Network, 25 minutes after the Florida Mizzou game. Likely sometime between 8:30 and 8:45 Central

Prediction

Beating a team this talented is hard enough, and a season-sweep is something to crow about. But beating a Top 15 team three times in one year is just filthy work. It’s the team executing at a high level against peer-level talent on both ends of the floor, and winning with their brand of basketball. It’s doing the little things right, in other words.

That’s what it’s going to take to get that third win and advance. Alabama has been the better team, but it’s not like the margin is tremendous. However, this rejuvenated Tide is tracking a different emotional course than the currently-dejected ‘Cats. Kentucky won’t go down easily, and Alabama will get every haymaker thrown at them in the UK arsenal. Weather them, punch back, and advance. That’s all you can do.

And I think they will, as Kentucky plays a little better than you’d expect without their senior floor general.

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Alabama 94
Kentucky 88

Hope for the best,
Roll Tide.

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