Hard to believe that we’re just 93 days away from College Football, and exactly 100 from Alabama’s kick off.
That of course means it’s time for degeneracy! Spring ball is over. The portal is closed. EEs have arrived. We know what teams looked like, what schedules shall bring, and now we have projected odds for the season.
I’m of the firm belief that how many games you win is usually determined by the schedule, not talent or quality. It didn’t take a genius to see Alabama staring at 2-3 losses last season, nor a mind of Di Vinci’s caliber to pencil Texas into the CFP.
With that in mind, here are the CFB win totals for the 2025 season, our picks, and some selected non-SEC teams. Obviously injuries and the like can derail even the best laid plans, but here are our picks as we peer through the mirror, darkly.
SEC
Alabama 9.5:
Our Call: Tentatively under. Alabama has the potential to be an 11-1 team with a 9-3 schedule. The upside is, despite how difficult the SEC slate in particular is, the Tide does draw Tennessee and LSU at home. But that early trip to UGA is almost certainly an L — the Dawgs simply don’t lose at home; Auburn is cursed ground; Mizzou plays out of their minds at home; as does South Carolina. And that’s just the road slate. Alabama also welcomes LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. There’s not a single gimme on this SEC schedule, and while there are roster strengths, the line play probably still isn’t quite up to snuff (looking at you, defense). 9-3 sounds right, though 10-2 is possible. That’s why it’s called a bet. Tell me what the passing game and interior running defense look like, and I’ll tell you whether the Tide hosts a playoff game or heads to the Outback Bowl.
Arkansas: 4.5
Our Call: Over. Somehow, Pittman always manages to field bowl-eligible teams. The schedule is a bear though, with six-seven hard games including four certain losses. The year will be made at home. Fortunately, Auburn, MSU, and A&M come to town. The Hogs actually host Notre Dame in Fayetteville. Three OOCs are super-breezy. And the Memphis road game is winnable. 6-6. They’ll spring an upset or two, as usual.
Auburn: 7.5
Our Call: Under. Did Auburn really upgrade at QB? The passing game was actually surprising lethal last year; it was TOs that killed them. With losses in the front seven, at RB, and a fifth QB in four years — all with Hugh Freeze coaching — are we sure this isn’t more than a .500 team? They get UGA at home, but I don’t see the Dawgs losing that one. Two conference roadies are almost certainly losable ones, with Vandy lurking OTR as well. I don’t see the Tigers beating Baylor in Waco either. 6-6, 7-5 if they spring an upset. Get that Birmingham Bowl swag bag ready, boys!
Georgia: 10.5
Our Call: Over. After being the recipient of the most difficult schedule in the nation last season, the Dawgs a break this year — Texas and the Tide come to Athens; Auburn, Kentucky and Ole Miss are all imminently winnable road games; and the OOC is a joke (Marshall, Austin Peay, Charlotte and only the trip Ga. Tech representing a decent contest). The Bulldogs are in the Teens Tide mode at the moment. It doesn’t seem to matter how many players they lose to the NFL or other attrition, UGA is loaded, they maintained coaching continuity again, and the schedule is much breezier. The Ole Miss and Tech road games could be a little dicey, and neither Alabama nor Texas will be a joke. But you can see the Dawgs winning three out of four — and perhaps all four. 11-1, maybe undefeated.
Florida: 6.5
Our Call: Hammer the over. There were few teams as hot as the Gators down the stretch last year. It took three full years, but it seems as though Billie now has his roster, his players, and his system in place. The talent isn’t still where it needs to be to compete with the upper echelon of the league, and we shall see if Lagway has a sophomore slump, but the Gators are going to be significantly better. Eight-plus wins ought to be the expectation here, especially with a manageable schedule where UF should go at least .500. 8-4.
Kentucky: 5.5
Our Call: Pile drive the under. Conceding that the Wildcats will curbstomp three awful OOC teams on their schedule, show me where UK has three more wins here: Texas, at UGA, Tennessee, at Vandy, at Louisville, at South Carolina, at Auburn, vs Florida. If UF was a mortal lock to get to at least 5-7, then we need a new phrase to describe why the Wildcats won’t get to six wins. This may be the best bet on the board. 4-8, maybe 3-9
LSU: 8.5
Our Call: Under. Just like Alabama seems a 9-3, 10-2 team, the Tigers look to track for 8-4 with some breaks.Hell, even Kelly’s best team won just nine games. LSU reloaded again via checkbook, so talent won’t be the issue. But it’s asking a whole lot of Nuss to be the savior of this offense, and especially behind a rebuilding line. The Tigers head to Tuscaloosa, Athens and Oxford. They host the Aggies and Gators. The OOC includes a true road trip to Clemson as well. I don’t see 8 wins here. I certainly don’t see nine.
Mississippi State: 3.5
Our Call: Under. The Bulldogs face eight SEC teams coming off a bowl bid last season, the road, and life on the road is hard down here. But it’s the home schedule that will kill Clanga: Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas. Woof. Two of the OOC games are going to be paycheck slaughters, though there is a tricky visit by NIU lurking too. And for the Dogs to pull this off, they have to beat Arizona State at home or pull off an SEC upset…and MSU simply did nothing to improve that hideous defense. Could they surprise? Maybe. But 3-9 looks like the better call here. I’d not rule out an upset to the Huskies either.
Mizzou: 7.5
Our Call: Once again, the Tigers received a very manageable schedule. In fact, it could be the easiest one in the SEC. They seem to get most of their tough contests at home too (including Alabama). There are some key losses, sure (and it is always hard to replace a 5th year Sr. QB). But the running game and defense will be stout, and the Tigers return one of the better WR corps in the league as well. I think there will be a step back, but I don’t think we’ll see a vast drop-off, if simply only by dint of schedule. As for that schedule, three games are creme puffs, and the Tigers host the hated Jayhawks — who they should be able to flat-out bully. Over: maybe not by much, but over. 8-4, 9-3.
UP NEXT: We’ll put a bow on the SEC schedule, and look at some national teams of interest too.
Roll Tide
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