Xs and Oats: Alabama’s mission at the Hump vs. No. 14 Mississippi State — hit open perimeter shots

A few weeks into the season, there was a score that caught my attention. At the time, in the comments, I remarked that it was easily the real eye-opener of the ACC/SEC Challenge: Mississippi State 90 — Pitt 57. We should have known then that it wasn’t an outlier or an aberration. The Bulldogs served notice to all of us early that they are for real.

Two months on, the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-4, 4-3) have proven to be every bit as dangerous as they appeared in early December. And, looking at the roster, you can’t really understand why. We’ve seen teams that are better than the sum of their parts before, but this may be the ultimate group in managing to cobble together elite results with, what is functionally, a two-man roster.

Low on star power, high on fundamentals, and absolutely deadly at home, this is not a game where the No. 4 Crimson Tide can take possessions off.

And amidst all this chaos and uncertainty, awash in a death march with no nights off, Alabama is now being anointed a 1-seed, with the chance to capture the overall No. 1 if it can hold serve through the Auburn game, and notch an upset on the Plains.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 14 MSU (16-4, 4-3 T-5th) vs No. 4 Alabama (17-3, 6-1 2nd)

Preliminary Spread: Alabama -3.5 (subject to change)

Opponent KenPom: 23 (18 offense, 35 defense, 176 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 21 (25 offense, 24 defense, 165 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 22 (22 offense, 43 defense, 186 tempo)
Opponent NET: 21 (4-3 Q1, 8-3 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 18
Opponent Best Win: vs Ole Miss (21)
Opponent Worst Loss: Butler (85)

UA Ken Pom: 9th (3 Off, 43 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 6th (3 Off, 29 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 8th (2 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 7 (12-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 27 (N) Oregon

Mississippi State is, to use the technical term, just weird as hell, man. Chris Jans runs a quirky system on both ends of the floor — defensively, it is a scheme that teams don’t see very often — unique, in the SEC even; and offensively, it is rare even nationally.

Let’s begin with the defensive side of the ball, and start by taking a look at Mississippi State’s game results: 95-90 one game, 65-60 the next. You see very few “normal” scores on there, and that’s a function of their defensive style of play. Like A&M and Ole Miss before them, the Bulldogs run a hybrid defense that is part-man, part-zone. However, unlike those teams, where the man defense is much more pronounced, the Bulldogs are, for all practical purposes. a box-and-1 zone team.

The Bulldogs employ a “denial and pack line” approach, where there is single man-pressure on the ball handler, but the other four defenders sit back in a shallow zone, surrounding the key — well away from the three-point line. The line that is being “packed” is the lane, not the perimeter, and the aim is to deny post entries and lobs, cuts to the basket, or backdoor screens. That is perhaps bad news for the Tide, who are 2nd in the country in two-point scoring, because all of the action inside the perimeter is aimed at the rim. This defense was custom made to force a steal off a bad pass, keep the ball away from the interior, and force a mid- to deep-range jumper late in the shot clock.

Very rarely is there constant man-pressure on opposing shooters, rather there is on-ball pressure. So, when the pass goes to a shooter on the wings, the Bulldogs have to rotate to defend the shooter. The prior defender drops back into zone, while a lane defender comes out to the arc. The zone then faces the direction of the ball.

It also has an interesting approach to minimizing breakouts: when the shot is released, rather than guards crashing to the basket, the two backcourt players immediately turn up court to pick up their man and try to deny a fast break opportunity. That transition defense is one of the rare instances you will see all-man pressure by the Bulldogs.

You don’t see this defense in the SEC, where man schemes and off-ball pressure are the norm, but Nate Oats is familiar with it: This is the defense that Tom Izzo has famously employed since Methuselah and that Alabama scorched Michigan State with in a November 2022 matchup.

The limitations should be apparent by now, however.

1. It’s a defense that in execution is not designed to force many turnovers, outside of outright steals. And that holds true for the Dogs, who are among the nation’s worst in non-steal % turnovers forced (as is Alabama, for that matter).
2. Because it is not an attacking defense, it is often slow to react to ball movement. That means quick movement around the perimeter can find open looks — unselfish basketball and making the second and third pass are critical here. But, against Sparty, Alabama had 19 assists on 24 made baskets. So, it can be done.
3. Finally, the defense concedes the perimeter. Alabama shooters are going to have all day to launch them from deep, as well as the space to do so. Florida and Kentucky absolutely lit up the Bulldogs from beyond the arc, and as a result got the W.

But, if you want to mudwrestle with this team? Play hero ball or get into a halfcourt slog? It’s going to be a long game, and that’s especially true at the Hump, where MSU are undefeated.

Offensively, the Bulldogs run a four-out system, with a wrinkle. It’s not just a four-out like we’ve seen before. Nope. Jans runs a “Four-And-One Motion” — another hybrid system that employs motion concepts out of the four-out, as well as parking a big man under the basket. You’re not going to see MSU bigs jumping out to the perimeter to set double-screens. They are rather the recipient of motion sets intended to create a favorable mismatch in the blocks. When the center in the “41” does vacate the lane, it’s usually to just to move to the high post; rarely do they come out beyond the FT stripe. And the motion that you see is generally with the center rotating around the horn with the ball.

This system is not particularly new to hoops fans, and certainly not to the Alabama staff: 41 Motion is the Jay Wright Villanova offense that Alabama’s system was built upon, and it’s one that Clemson also runs. But, where guys like Nate Oats and Sweaty McBarnerson borrowed much of that four-out system, those teams don’t employ a set motion scheme like ‘Nova and Clemson. It should go without saying, that if there is a quality big man, it’s very hard to stop interior scoring against. And, because defenders are preoccupied with stopping those interior passes and easy dunks, solid perimeter shooters can find good looks to let ‘er rip.

That has all been Alabama’s experience in their three prior matchups with the Tigers.

Key Personnel

Earlier, I alluded to Mississippi State functionally being a two-man team. And, in terms of defensive assignments, there are two players you have to stop. On the outside, Sophomore PG Josh Hubbard is the star. He’s the second-best perimeter shooter among the starters, an excellent free throw shooter, and has some of the SEC’s best ballhandling metrics — he won’t give away the game. He is also the most productive offensive player, with a scorching 1.2 points per shooting possession. He’s joined in the backcourt by two other solid shooters, SG Claudell Harris, with 6th Man Riley Kugel coming off the bench as a perimeter threat. But Harris and Hubbard are the main volume shooters. Hubbard in particular is going to be a matchup nightmare if Sears has not eaten his Wheaties. He’s a scorer with a quick first step that will make you look stupid if you’re not assignment-sound

The frontcourt is helmed by rebounding machine, and portrait of offensive efficiency, 6’10” Sr. C/PF KeShawn Murphy. Big men in the 41 have tended to have good nights against ‘Bama’s defense, but if Alabama wants to win this game, the Tide must limit the damage Murphy does — at a minimum, they must keep him off the offensive glass. He’s second on the team in offensive efficiency, and is the leading rebounder and second-leading scorer.

The wildcard in all of this is 6’7” Sr. Wing Cameron Matthews. He’s not a perimeter threat; he does more of his damage when he puts the ball on the floor or is moving towards the basket. But he is the most efficient overall rebounder, and outplays his size, often banging around against opposing bigs to outwork them on the glass. Every possession should be treated as a full 24-second one with Matthews on the floor. He’s simply too active to ignore when the ball is in the air.

How To Watch

It’s a late one: Wednesday 29 January, 8 CST, SEC Network

Prediction

Who knows, really? Mississippi State is undefeated at home, and playing stellar defense in Starkvegas. Then again, in their contests against similarly high-flying offenses, the Bulldogs were both on the road, gave up 90+ in both games…and lost both games.

Then there’s the issue of motivation. Today, Nate Oats said that Alabama has had its two best days of practice on the season. Sears seems to have bought-in and is contrite. The benchings and caustic ass-chewings seem to have left their mark. But, at the end of the day, Alabama has to hit perimeter shots. Those looks are going to be there. I would not be surprised to see Alabama have closer to 40 attempts than 30, honestly. MSU is going to leave some inviting perimeter targets, and everyone on this team has the green light to fire them off.

‘Bama just needs to have them drop.

We’ll say that the course-correction worked, and like the UF and UK game before them, State plays their tails off, especially in the post; they knock down some clutch looks from three; but Alabama has too much firepower at the end of the day…even if they have to get there by volume rather than accuracy.

It’s a tough game against a very good team playing on their home floor.

Alabama 88
MSU 83

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

Here’s your game thread. Sound off below