Californians have been migrating north to Oregon for years, and the last four years have been no different. Whether they are leaving California to escape wildfires, earthquakes, or higher prices, they continually move to Portland, Oregon. This is true despite the city of Portland losing population for the last three years.
The reason for the city of Portland’s decline appears to be unique, or locally caused. If we look beyond Portland, some parts of Oregon are growing like Deschutes County which is seeing the largest population increase from 2020 to 2023 at nearly 5.2%. Their growth is attributed to demand from outdoor lovers, brewery fans, and remote workers looking to make a lifestyle change.
If we look at big northwest cities, Portland is again unique. Seattle’s population growth is slow but still positive at 0.8%. Data seems to support that the reason people are leaving Portland is due to a blend of tax policies, local crime, graffiti, and other forms of blight. Still, not every area of Oregon is shrinking.
Even with Portland’s population dip, home prices have remained relatively stable (check out the latest Portland monthly report). Many people still find home ownership here attractive, and that includes people from California. In California the median home price in 2024 was around $869,500, and it is predicted to average $909,400 for 2025. Compare that with Portland’s median home price coming in around $575,000 and add the relative job security provided by major companies like Intel, Nike, Adidas, and Columbia Sportswear, not to mention nearby Boeing, Tektronix, and The Standard Insurance Company, it stands to reason why so many are fleeing The Golden State and heading north.
How Many People Are Moving to Portland?
There are two ways to look at demand: from a state perspective and from Portland specifically.
Oregon has always been a popular moving destination for Californians. It ranks sixth nationwide according to moveBuddha. Texas is number one, with three times more Californians. Florida ranks second, and nearby Washington is fourth, two positions higher than Oregon.
In terms of demand nationwide, Texas still wins, followed by North Carolina and South Carolina. Interestingly, California comes in last, with a net domestic migration loss of -239,575 between 2023 and 2024.
So, which states are moving to Portland and the state of Oregon overall? City data is hard to gather, but we do have data on the state. According to a 2024 American Community Survey via the US Census, Oregon is seeing its biggest growth from California, Washington, Arizona, and Texas, in that order.
Graph from OregonLive
How Many People Are Moving Out of Portland?
We recently wrote that some are leaving the area and going south to California while others are heading further north to Seattle.
We mentioned earlier which states to which Californians and the national population moved. Where are Oregonians moving?
According to the 2024 American Community Survey via the US Census, more than 130,000 Oregonians moved to other states last year, with a little more than half to the neighboring states of Washington and California. But two of the most popular are further out: Arizona and Texas.
Graph from OregonLive
Migration to Portland is Good for Oregon’s Economy
People moving to our state is good for our economy because it provides labor for local businesses, says the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. State economist Josh Lehner says it’s our lifeline. Especially when we take into account the death and birth rates mentioned above.
Birthrate decline is a worldwide phenomenon, influenced by many factors, including marital status, job status, childcare costs, and more. But as Lehner says, “Ours is more dramatic than most other states.” Here, it’s at a 30-year low and happening almost ten years sooner than Lehner initially projected.
The future of Oregon is a big question mark right now, and this is why inward migration to anywhere in Oregon matters. Regardless of what Portlanders have felt about California migration, we need it for our economy to remain strong.
In-ward Migration Creates Challenges, Too
There’s no doubt that in-ward migration brings challenges, like the lack of sustained housing supply for the demand. Portland’s Residential Infill Project is one answer to housing challenges in the area.
And what about the wear and tear on Oregon’s highways due to more automobile traffic? Or parking to accommodate all the vehicles in-ward migration brings?
Portland is still grappling with these issues, striving to find the balance between the need for in-migration and its inherent challenges.
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