Happy Groundhog Day. Hand drawn lettering text with cute groundhog. 2 February. Vector illustration. Script. Calligraphic design for print greetings card, banner, poster. Colorful
February 2 marks Groundhog Day, a tradition rooted in folklore that has been observed for centuries. This date holds significance beyond just the shadow of a famous rodent—it is the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, signaling that winter is halfway over in the Northern Hemisphere. Ancient cultures recognized this period as a turning point in the seasons, with longer days and a gradual warming trend ahead. Whether Punxsutawney Phil (or Birminmgham Bill) sees his shadow or not, history and climatology remind us that winter’s grip can linger well beyond early February, but the promise of spring grows closer with each passing day.
WARM AND DRY START TO THE WEEK
High pressure remains in control of Alabama’s weather on this Sunday, keeping conditions dry with a warming trend. Highs today will reach the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the area, with even warmer temperatures expected Monday when highs will range between 69-75F.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
With light winds and some lingering low-level moisture, fog could develop in parts of North and Central Alabama late tonight into Monday morning, particularly in valley areas.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER MIDWEEK
Gulf moisture will steadily return beginning Tuesday, bringing higher dew points and an increase in cloud cover. Scattered showers may develop across the northern half of the state by Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. Highs will range between 71-79F. Overnight lows will trend warmer as well, staying in the 40s and 50s.
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
A weak disturbance moving through the Midwest will bring 20-35% rain chances, mainly across North Alabama. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible, but instability looks weak at this time.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY COLD FRONT UNCERTAINTY
A cold front is expected to approach from the north late in the week, but model guidance suggests it may stall or weaken before pushing through the state. If it slows, warm temperatures could persist into next weekend.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY
While instability remains limited (CAPE values near 500 J/kg), wind shear could be strong enough (30-40 knots) to support a few stronger storms. This will need to be monitored as we get closer to midweek.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FRIDAY
Depending on how far south the front progresses, there may still be some showers lingering Friday, but no significant cooldown is expected.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH MIDWEEK
With increasing moisture and dew points, fire weather concerns will be minimal after Monday, though dry conditions will persist in the southern half of the state through early week.
PLEASANT WEATHER AT THE BEACH
Those heading to the Alabama and Florida Gulf Coast will enjoy mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures through early next week, with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Water temperatures remain chilly in the upper 50s, and the rip current risk will be low. Surf heights will remain around 1-2 feet, with light winds shifting from the northeast to the southeast at 5-10 mph. Humidity levels will gradually rise by midweek, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a slight chance of showers along the coast by Wednesday.
DANCING WITH THE STATS: January 2025 was cooler and drier in Arizona, including Tucson, where for the third straight January, the average monthly temperature was below normal. There were 7 days at Tucson in the month of January that were below 32F. Compare that to all of 2024, when there were only four!
WEATHERBRAINS: Last week we spoke with a pair of chasers, including Jen Walton from Girls Who Chaser, and Heath Lollar, who is the famed Brett Adair’s sidekick. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show and you can see the live show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.
ON THIS DATE IN 2016: An EF2 tornado tore through Pickens County, Alabama, carving a 26.2-mile path of destruction across the southwestern part of the county. With maximum winds estimated at 135 mph, the tornado developed south of AL Highway 21 and west of County Road 87 before moving northeast. Numerous structures were damaged or destroyed along its track, and widespread tree damage was reported. One person was injured as the storm passed through, marking a significant severe weather event for Alabama in early February. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.
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