New Data for Progress polling finds Alaska voters contending with a widespread and worsening affordability crisis and increasingly opposed to Governor Mike Dunleavy, who has grown deeply unpopular after repeatedly taking positions out of line with Alaska voters. Against this backdrop, former Representative Mary Peltola and Representative Nick Begich lead their races for U.S. Senate and House.
Voters are worried about affording groceries, gas, utilities, and healthcare at markedly higher rates than last year. They want the state to direct any new spending toward energy affordability and public schools alongside the Permanent Fund Dividend. The survey also finds broad, bipartisan support for several bills that the Legislature passed but Dunleavy vetoed, including an election reform package and a public school mental health curriculum.
On the Alaska LNG (liquefied natural gas) project, voters widely support the gas line even as they are skeptical of its developer. Voters side with the Legislature that a gas-line tax break should also require all major oil and gas companies to pay state corporate income tax. On energy, they want their electric utilities to make long-term investments, and they support pausing new data center development.
This survey extends Data for Progress’ ongoing research in Alaska, from the state’s 2024 legislative priorities and elections to its 2025 legislative sessions and a look at where the governor’s race stood last summer. The affordability crises Data for Progress documented last year — including in healthcare and housing — have only deepened since. Data for Progress has a track record of accurately surveying Alaska voters: Its 2024 poll anticipated Donald Trump’s and Nick Begich’s 2024 margins each within 2.5 points. This survey’s weighted respondent pool voted for Trump in 2024 by a +13-point margin, matching the state’s actual result.
Dunleavy Unfavorability Hits a New Low
Peltola has the highest favorable rating of anyone tested, at 49%. Among candidates for governor, Democrat Tom Begich has both the highest favorability (45% favorable) and the highest net favorability (+13), while the other Democrat, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, is second in both (30% favorable, +5). The Republican candidates and former Gov. Bill Walker are all underwater, with Walker (−23) and Dave Bronson (−20) the most negative.
A majority of Alaska voters already have an opinion of Bill Hill after he launched his campaign for U.S. House at the beginning of the year, and on balance, voters’ opinion of Hill is positive (+17 net favorability).
