Melbourne spring auction market slumps to worst levels since Covid lockdowns

Melbourne’s spring auction market has slumped so badly it is on track to go the entire season without a single Super Saturday with more than 1000 auctions.

Just 520 Victorian homes are forecast to test the market as voters head to the polls on the final weekend of spring.

That is a 69 per cent plunge – or 1150 fewer auctions – than the same weekend a year ago.

Figures from realestate.com.au show 621 Melbourne auctions scheduled this week, 56 per cent fewer than the corresponding week last year when about 1411 were held.

There are 736 booked for the week of November 21, down 49 per cent.

Both realestate.com.au and Real Estate Institute of Victoria figures show the state has not recorded a single 1000-auction Super Saturday this spring.

The last time this was recorded by the REIV was the heavily Covid-impacted spring of 2020.

Property Investment Professionals of Australia chair and Melbourne buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos said the quiet calendar had even allowed her to take a Saturday off in October, something she said was previously unheard of during spring.

She said she had “ruined birthdays and weddings” in past years because weekends were so busy with auctions.

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Melbourne buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos.

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But Ms Bakos said a shortage of quality homes meant buyers were still encountering tough competition. She missed out at two public auctions last Saturday, one with six bidders and the other with five.

She said some sellers and agents were choosing private sales, leaving buyers to negotiate without seeing rival offers.

“They’re negotiating in the dark and they can’t see their opponent. They don’t know what information to trust,” she said.

Ms Bakos said new reserve-disclosure laws had unsettled some sellers, but expected confidence to improve as the rules became more familiar. She warned an advertised reserve was not necessarily an indication of the eventual sale price.

She expected some auction campaigns to be delayed until after the November 28 state election and predicted agents could be negotiating deals as late as Christmas Eve.

Ms Bakos believed Super Saturdays could return in March 2027.

Sarwari Estate Agents director Zee Sarwari

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Sarwari Estate Agents director Zee Sarwari said recent homebuyers are bearing the brunt of the softer market. Meanwhile, some established homeowners are seizing the dip to upgrade.

“Anyone that’s bought from 2021 onwards is hurting a little,” Mr Sarwari said.

He gave a hypothetical example of someone selling a $1m home for 10 per cent less, but buying a $3m property also down 10 per cent.

That would narrow the price gap between the two homes by $200,000 before transaction costs.

Luke Banitsiotis Ray White Victoria chief auctioneer.

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Ray White Victoria and Tasmania chief auctioneer Luke Banitsiotis said he could not recall another spring outside Covid without a 1000-auction weekend.

But fewer new listings did not mean there were fewer homes for sale, he said, because unsold properties were accumulating as some owners held out for prices buyers would not pay.

“There’s low new listings, but there’s still plenty of stock that hasn’t cleared sitting on the market,” Mr Banitsiotis said.

He said Ray White had been training agents on the new auction rules and using market data to help sellers decide how to price their homes.

Mr Banitsiotis was unconvinced the upcoming state election was behind the slowdown.

His own December auction bookings were lighter than November’s, despite expectations in some parts of the industry of a late-year rush.

He said homeowners who genuinely need to sell can still make a deal if they meet the market.

However, those holding out for unrealistic prices risk wasting money on a failed campaign.

“You need to sell, you’ll certainly be able to sell. It’s just price driven,” he said.

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