For this month’s aviation industry webinar, Deirdre Fulton and John Grant were joined by Brendan Sobie, Independent Analyst, Consultant and Writer at Sobie Aviation, to discuss an emerging trend in aviation of enforced capacity discipline and how it’s impacting growth this year.
In the webinar, the live panel take a look at the latest capacity position, how trends in inactive aircraft levels
are emerging, and discuss where the greatest geographical impacts may be. They also explore the low cost sector and how that’s evolving.
A LOOK AT GLOBAL TRENDS
First, the panel take a look at the state of global capacity now and the year ahead. When comparing Q1 2025 against the same quarter last year, capacity is up 5. 2 percent – and that’s taking into account adjustments due to the leap year last year, which added an extra day in February. It’s a good position to be in, John says – but the devil is in the detail:
“Asia is still very much in a recovery mode. We see that year on year, with another 10 million seats being added back into Northeast Asia, for example. Southeast Asia, another 10 million seats being added compared to last year. So a lot of the capacity growth is happening there. The consequence of that, though, using some of the data that we have, is that the average selling fares are falling quite significantly on those routes, which is good for travellers in Asia. But it is a bit of a warning about being careful about capacity and discipline.”
Regional Variations in Airline Capacity Growth
The landscape of airline capacity growth is far from uniform, with distinct regional variations shaping the industry. In 2025, regions such as Asia and Latin America are witnessing significant capacity expansions, driven by recovering markets and increasing demand for air travel, but other regional growth is more cautious.
Looking at the graph, the panel note how one of the most interesting data points is North Africa, where we we’ve got a 7% increase in capacity and slight reduction in number of frequencies. “So obviously someone is using larger aircraft and that someone tends to be the low cost airlines, and particularly European low cost airlines, who are actively developing their positions in North Africa particularly at this time of year. Then you compare and contrast with North America, where there’s some very real concerns about the longevity of the ultra low cost airline model and where that is going and where it will end up. So, that’s that’s a lot more of a cautious market.”
Enforced Capacity Discipline: Causes and ConsequenceS
Enforced capacity discipline is emerging as a significant trend, impacting airline growth strategies globally. This discipline is often a result of factors beyond the airlines’ control, such as delays in aircraft deliveries and maintenance issues. Regionally, this has led to varied impacts: while some Asian markets manage oversupply issues, other regions face constraints due to inactive fleets.
Watch the full webinar here:
