As 2024 comes to a close, the Portland real estate market is showing seasonal patterns along with an encouraging amount of stable buyer activity. Inventory levels are also relatively high compared to prior years at this time. Price reductions have stabilized, and pending sales have continued to slow.
Fewer listings are expected until spring, and steady buyer activity shows promise for the 2025 market, but interest rate changes could alter results, so both buyers and sellers will benefit from keeping a close eye on the market in early 2025.
Let’s dive into the latest trends more closely and look at what we can expect heading into 2025.
Buyer Traffic Trends Show Stronger Activity vs. Previous Years
Following the latest RMLS data, buyer traffic in Oregon is stronger than in previous years. Lockbox activity for the week ending December 8, 2024, totaled 13,344, while a similar period in 2023 came in at 12,308, and 2022 was 12,094.
Regarding buyer traffic patterns, we’re seeing a dip and sharp rise, similar to 2023. Historically, buyer activity drops in late November and December due to holiday slowdowns (Thanksgiving and Christmas), followed by a correction. However, 2024 is showing stronger-than-usual engagement than in previous years.
| Oregon weekly home buyer traffic | Hot or Cold Market? |
| 0 – 5,000 | Frozen |
| 5,000 – 10,000 | Cold |
| 10,000 – 15,000 | Cool (Currently) |
| 15,000 – 20,000 | Lukewarm |
| 20,000 – 25,000 | Warm |
| 25,000 + | Hot |
Activity could slow further as we move further into the holidays, followed by its customary rise in January. Still, this year shows that buyer traffic could close out the year with relatively higher numbers that could extend into next year.
Inventory Levels Continue Their Seasonal Decline
Inventory data as of December 16, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.
Along with higher traffic comes higher inventory. This year’s total of 1,143 is up vs. last year’s 1,019, though slightly lower than 2022’s total of 1,154.
Though inventory is up vs 2023, Portland continues its typical seasonal pattern of an inventory decline that will continue until spring. Lower inventory means fewer options for buyers but helps stabilize pricing during this time of the year. Lower interest rates could change things slightly, but we predict overall trends to remain similar.
Price Reductions Hold Steady Despite Seasonal Trends
Price reductions in Portland have remained relatively stable as we close out 2024. As of December, 50% of active listings have seen price cuts, matching November’s percentage. Often, we see a wider swing. Year-over-year, this marks a slight improvement from 2023 and a decline vs. 2022.
Price decreases as of December 16, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.
Elevated inventory levels earlier this fall likely contributed to sellers adjusting their pricing to attract buyers for longer. With inventory levels still high, reductions will likely hold steady into January. Moving forward, price reductions peak in December before tapering off until the next spring, and this year will likely follow the same trend. How much it will remain the same will depend on interest rates.
Average Home Prices Follow the Trend in a Seasonal Slowdown
The price per square foot, the best method for gauging home values in Portland, stands at $318 for December, slightly higher than $315 in November 2023. Overall, however, we’re seeing that seasonal trends over the last two years are holding, showing a gradual overall decline in fall and a rise in pricing in January. If stronger buyer engagement holds, home values will likely be maintained and higher than in prior years.
Price per square foot data as of December 16, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.
New Listings and Pending Sales Show Seasonal Slowdown
As of the latest RMLS Market Action September Report, new listings in Portland continued their seasonal decline in November, totaling 1,459—a 36.1% decrease from October’s 2,283. Year-over-year, new listings are down 20.2%, with 1,828 new listings recorded in November 2023. Sellers remain cautious heading into winter, aligning with seasonal norms.
Pending sales, however, tell a more positive story. November recorded 1,582 pending sales, reflecting a 9.8% increase from 1,441 in November 2023. Month-over-month, pending sales are down 21.6% from October’s 2,018, a typical slowdown as the holidays approach.
Despite fewer new listings, the increase in pending sales year-over-year highlights steady demand, with buyers continuing to engage despite seasonal factors. This activity could support pricing stability into early 2025.
Recommendations for Buyers and Sellers
2024 has not received the second dip in interest rates as predicted (the Feds dropped rates, but it did not have a strong impact on mortgage rates – yet), so if that remains the case in early 2025, the Portland real estate market should follow familiar seasonal patterns, with a slight uptick in activity as the new year begins. For buyers, the current market offers a unique opportunity. With inventory still elevated compared to past years and price reductions holding steady, this season allows buyers to explore options and negotiate more favorable terms. However, with buyer traffic showing strength and activity expected to pick up in January, acting sooner rather than later could help buyers secure better deals before competition increases in the spring. Lower interest rates may also bring in more buyers, so keeping an eye on the market is particularly important for early 2025.
Sellers should prepare for longer market times and consider pricing competitively to attract motivated buyers. Things will improve for sellers if interest rates lower, but pricing homes strategically can help maintain buyer demand and prevent long periods on the market. However, since interest rates are still questionable, monitoring buyer activity closely as we approach 2025 will be key, especially if interest rates or inventory levels shift unexpectedly.
What We Can Expect Ahead
Historically, buyer traffic increases in January and continues from there through June. 2024’s stronger-than-usual engagement points to this trend continuing. Fewer listings will enter the market until spring, so we could see less negotiating power for buyers if interest rates fall. However, lower inventory should still help stabilize prices, particularly if pending sales remain steady or rise.
If rates drop further, it could fuel additional buyer demand, leading to more competitive conditions for available properties. Sellers who price competitively now may benefit from early 2025 activity, while buyers should prepare to move quickly as competition could heat up with the seasonal market shift.
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