A Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2553, believed by US officials to be linked to Moscow’s nuclear anti-satellite weapons program, appears to be spinning uncontrollably and may no longer be operational, according to US analysts.
Launched on February 5, 2022, just weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Cosmos 2553 has exhibited erratic tumbling behavior over the past year. Radar data from LeoLabs and optical observations from Slingshot Aerospace, seen by Reuters, indicate that the satellite is experiencing instability, suggesting a loss of control.
Over the past year, Cosmos 2553 experienced episodes of errant rotation, and in December 2024, LeoLabs suggested with “high confidence” that the satellite was tilting and possibly tumbling out of control, based on radar data and satellite imagery.
While Russia asserts that Cosmos 2553 was intended for testing onboard instruments in high-radiation environments, US officials suspect the satellite plays a role in the development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. Such a weapon could potentially disable or destroy entire satellite constellations, including SpaceX’s Starlink network, which has been a critical communications asset for Ukrainian forces.
Although Ukraine lacks its own military satellite fleet, it has leveraged commercial assets from companies like SpaceX, Maxar, and ICEYE for communications and reconnaissance. In contrast, Russia has reportedly commandeered assets like Iran’s Khayyam satellite to support its military operations.
The growing concerns around Cosmos 2553 are set against a broader backdrop of increasing militarization of space. In October 2022, Russia warned that US and allied commercial satellites supporting Ukraine’s war effort could become “legitimate targets,” citing the use of space infrastructure such as Starlink and commercial satellite imagery for military purposes.
Concerns about the potential for space warfare intensified in February 2024 when U.S. lawmakers raised alarms about a “serious national security threat” related to Russia’s development of anti-satellite nuclear capabilities. Although the White House confirmed that Russia was pursuing such technology, it emphasized that no active threat to safety on Earth existed.
Experts warn that destruction of satellites in orbit could trigger the Kessler Syndrome: a cascade of debris collisions that could make Earth’s orbit unusable for decades, crippling vital infrastructure for communication, navigation, and surveillance.
