Low-cost carrier Ryanair has lowered its passenger forecasts, citing delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries as the reason it will not reach its goal of 210 million passengers by 2026.
“While B737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of summer of 2025 to facilitate the fiscal year of 2026 traffic growth to 210 million passengers,” Ryanair officials said in a statement published on January 27, 2025.
The Irish budget airline expects that the remaining 29 Boeing 737-8200 ‘Gamechanger’ aircraft will arrive by March 2026, enabling the airline “to recover this delayed traffic growth”. Boeing is expected to certify the MAX 10 by late 2025, which Ryanair believes will help in receiving their first 15 MAX 10s by spring 2027.
Ryanair plans to direct its limited capacity growth to regions and airports in Poland, Sweden and Italy that are promoting growth by reducing aviation taxes and encouraging traffic growth.
The airline also mentioned that European short-haul capacity will “remain constrained in 2025 as many of Europe’s Airbus operators continue to work through Pratt & Whitney engine repairs.”
This limited capacity is expected to support “low-fare profitable growth to 300 million passengers over the next decade,” according to Ryanair.
Despite ongoing delays from Boeing, Ryanair reported a Profit After Tax (PAT) of €149 million for Q3 2024, a significant increase from a PAT of €15 million in the same quarter last year, with traffic rising by 9% to 45 million passengers.
The carrier said it expects to reach almost 200 million passengers in FY25 if there is “no further adverse news on Boeing delivery delays.” Currently, Ryanair is cautiously estimating its PAT for fiscal year 2025 to be between €1.55 billion to €1.61 billion.
“The final FY25 PAT outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse external developments between now and the end of March, including the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, further Boeing delivery delays and ATC mismanagement/short staffing here in Europe,” Ryanair concluded.
