What does 2025 have in store for aviation technology?

Analysts at OAG are unconvinced. Chief analyst John Grant says the capacity challenges will persist, even if Boeing, Airbus and Embraer have stellar years. 

“The capacity challenges of 2024 will continue into 2025 and indeed through to 2026 as airlines struggle with the fallout from MRO [maintenance, repair, and overhaul] issues and production delays from major aircraft manufacturers. Expect capacity to grow by between 3%-4% during the year and any more will be a pleasant surprise,” he predicts.

But two key changes might signal a more hopeful outlook for the Washington-based OEM.

Firstly, the re-acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems will be a key “sink or swim” metric. If the bet is correct, 737 production issues could be brought under control. But if, as PwC’s senior aviation finance consultant Dick Forsberg predicts, it takes most (if not all) of 2025 to align production and the businesses, pressure will only continue to mount in Everett and beyond.

And the man feeling that pressure will be key to Boeing’s direction of travel, and ultimately, its success or failure. Kelly Ortberg has been in place since Dave Calhoun departed in August and his first full year in charge will be watched keenly. 

Forsberg said: “Going forward, it will be essential for Boeing’s leadership to bring the workforce back on side and increase the level of employee engagement in improving and then maintaining quality and efficiency across the production process.

“An early positive sign that the company wants to change the dynamic is that, during the month following the end of the [machinist] strike, no aircraft were built in the Seattle area, instead using the production facilities for a series of training activities to bring the mechanics back up to speed and prepare for the restart.”

The space for competition is not as wide open as some might have you believe. Embraer is operating in the same depleted supply chain world as Airbus and Boeing, and while alternatives such as Boom Supersonic are moving fast, they are not in any position to challenge the production hegemony.

Instead of a takeover this year, IFS’s aerospace and defence vice-president Rob Mather says the next 12 months will be crucial for these start-ups, also including JetZero, Natilus, and Heart Aerospace, to build the foundations that mean they can compete at scale in the coming decade.

“To capitalise, startups will need an all-encompassing manufacturing ERP [enterprise resource planning] system, capable of supporting the prototyping, manufacturing, test flight operation, maintenance and engineering, supply chain, and aftermarket sales of their aircraft and ensure a successful development, entry-into-service, and sustainment now and in the future,” Mather says.

Return to the “Golden Age” – via AI

While low-cost carriers continue to dominate many routes, FLYR’s chief product officer Sam Chamberlain says new technology could spark a shift in both airline and consumer mindsets, which could signal a return to passenger control and cut out the stress of modern air travel.

“In the past, maybe in the 1960s, the 1970s and the 1980s, travel was a very, sort of, stress-free, exciting thing, something to look forward to. You think back to those vintage travel posters of somebody pushing like a buffet cart with the lobster down the aisle, and you’ve got all of this legroom, and it looks amazing. And I think there’s a meme somewhere of like, gosh, imagine what this will be like in the future.

“It’s gone the opposite way… Travel today is fraught with worry and anxiety. You might be excited about the fact that you’re taking a trip, but as soon as you start to think about what happens if my flight gets cancelled? And what happens if my bag doesn’t make it, and what happens if you know I need to make a change, and do I do that? Does somebody else?

“So that’s what I mean by a return to the golden age of travel, getting the mindset back to something super enjoyable and super exciting, as opposed to something that’s anxiety-inducing.”

Although it isn’t entirely about AI, Chamberlain is bullish about the uses of generative AI to improve the passenger experience and crucially, to help stakeholders develop the tech to deliver this change. 

He explains: “Building solutions using AI, especially generative AI (genAI), can actually help build these capabilities a lot faster, can build these complex integrations between systems that can solve all of that very laborious effort very quickly. So we can build more efficiently and then put solutions in the airline’s hands more easily.

“So the very two distinct ways, like AI being used to make recommendations of products and offering and setting the right price for you, and AI helping us build the software in the first place, to actually enable airlines to go and put that stuff in front of you, is how we are using it, and that we think it’s going to make a huge, a huge difference.”

But it’s not just airlines and vendors increasingly looking to AI and similar tech. 

Airports see AI as a tool to reduce inefficiencies with the development, installation and now spread of AIRHART from Netcompany perhaps the clearest picture of this (although far from the only application hoping to boost the airport experience and profits). 

Much of this work will be ‘behind the scenes’, at least at first. Business analysis tasks are likely to become dominated by genAI, and the significant cash injection from governments will only accelerate this.

The MRO sector is also likely to benefit in several ways, according to Mather: 

• “Enhance junior technicians’ skillset: Junior technicians can gain virtual hands-on training with extended reality and call experienced technicians with augmented reality for guidance.
• Reduce non-productive time: AI-enabled maintenance planning can help maximise maintenance yield and improve scheduling for both resources and technicians.
• Optimise technicians’ efficiency: Aviation-specific AI devices can arm technicians with on-the-job solutions and troubleshooting.
• Increase legacy knowledge: Junior technicians can gain valuable knowledge from AI copilot suggesting solutions and diagnosing the correct IATA classification.”

Launches – airlines to eVTOL

Airports have long been a window into the experience of luxury shopping, benefitting of course from the duty-free status, but the products offered have been the centre of this experience. With the advent of ‘digital-first airlines’, this could all change. 

The hope of those behind the likes of Riyadh Air is that a connected digital vendor approach could become a money-spinner for airlines while giving passengers (or customers) a smooth and interconnected travel retail experience. 

The idea, as explained by FLYR’s Sam Chamberlain, is to utilise Gen AI and machine learning to formulate an airline shopfront that goes far beyond purchasing a plane ticket, maybe a hotel room, and being pushed a hire car (even when you don’t have a driving licence.) 

Chamberlain comments: “There is even the notion, which sounds really strange and hard to get yet kind of get your head around, just from a conceptual perspective, that eventually, airlines can sell products and services that aren’t air travel. 

“Because they sold the flight to the passenger and the passenger bought a bunch of other things. And theoretically, the passenger could cancel the flight but they might keep something they bought with that flight. And so the airline can become a real digital retailer, of which, for sure, 99% of the dominant content is airfare… but doesn’t have to be just airfare. They really could be selling these other things, experiences, third-party content … they’re just another retail outlet for that content. So I think that’s going to be really interesting to see whether airlines really get that far.” 

Along with the digital airline, another technology that could enter commercial operation in 2025 is eVTOL aircraft and its likely application as air taxis. 

While 2024 was the year of test flights, notably Joby in the US and EHang in China, and contract signings that seek to set the frameworks for air taxi networks in a few major cities, no actual service has yet launched.

And much like any nascent industry, not everyone has found success. For example, Lilium, the German startup that was given a premium position on Chancellor Scholz’s tour of ILA Berlin, entered administration in October although a “breakthrough” restructuring was announced on 24 December.

However, according to OAG’s Grant, California will leap this year and launch a premium passenger service, most likely in Los Angeles. However, it won’t be without competition from the Gulf. Archer Aviation, another forerunner in the eVTOL space, has signed contracts with Abu Dhabi authorities and is working with the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority to develop a network.

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