The Dust-Up: The Bike Industry Is Broken – It Needs More Density and Less Sprawl | The Radavist
As the bike industry deals with the post-pandemic trials and tribulations, John’s penned a Dust-Up in which he believes it is broken and begs it to learn from its mistakes as we enter a new era of tariffs and potential economic uncertainty. Read on for a reflective piece about the things he learned during his architecture education and how they apply to the current paradigm of extractive consumerism in the cycling industry.
Urbanism: On Sprawl Versus Density
I feel like a broken record when I talk about how this website came about. In 2006, I first started documenting cycling culture for what would become The Radavist. My intent was to document the parts of the bike industry that the larger media landscape ignored. But I was also working full-time as an architect in Manhattan, so my free time was limited to the weekends.
Prior to that, I was in architecture college, where I minored in urbanism, philosophy, and film.
During my urban studies, we learned all about the cycle that American cities have undergone during various economic fluctuations, what drove people from dense cities to suburban sprawl, and what that meant for the US’ resource management. In short, just because we have expansive land doesn’t mean we ought to develop it. Rather, we ought to be more mindful of our existing resources.
Cities like New York are emblematic of the benefits of density. Cities like Los Angeles are emblematic of the problems with sprawl.
Development for the sake of it eventually runs out, creating conflict as resources are sought elsewhere. In many ways, the cycling industry could learn a thing or two about these mindless expansion cycles. But before we get into the meat and potatoes of this Dust-Up, let’s rewind the clocks back four years ago…
The Bike Industry is Broken
I get a lot of questions regarding what happened during the timeline outlined below and what the future of the industry might hold. This is from brands, other media members, and, of course, our readers. So here’s a peek behind the curtain into what I saw go down and how we can learn from these mistakes.
For three years, this website was owned by a venture capital-backed entity that will remain nameless. I don’t like thinking about that era of The Radavist. Not because the experience wasn’t educational or that I didn’t learn (mostly what not to do) during that blip of time across the almost two decades I’ve been working on this website, but because it allowed me to glimpse the wizard behind the curtain.
No, not a good Old Toby weed smoking wizard like Gandalf, moreso the puppet masters who were, at the time, in control of a lot of the bike industry.
Allow me to set the broader stage. It was 2016 when I was first approached by another, bigger media outlet to sell this website. The offer came again in 2020. Shortly after, the entity that offered to buy The Radavist for its “road division” was engulfed by a giant corporate entity, and the rest is a sordid history you can read all about over here.
When I turned down the 2020 offering, something felt fishy. Clouds were building, and something in my gut felt uneasy – no, it wasn’t the red chili I ate for lunch, either.
The bike industry was at an all-time high in terms of profitability. There was a lot of “fake money” being thrown around, and venture capitalists were circling overhead, picking off the heads of the pack in a reversal of the great Darwinist evolutionary examples of carrion carnivores.
Unlike those majestic birds that fly over vast, expansive lands, venture capital looks to the leaders of the pack to feast upon, not the old, weak, or young. Venture capitalists seek to possess creativity and passion because they know they cannot create it themselves.
I will not call them “vultures” because I am a big fan of the family Cathartidae. Big enough to put our logo on one and print it on a shirt. A sky burial will be in my will.
Unsustainable Growth
Prior to the pandemic, no one went into the bike industry in hopes of striking it rich. These talented people were running the industry because they really loved bikes. Anyone willing to take their industrial design, engineering, marketing, or business degrees and seek employment in the bike industry isn’t in it for riches. They work in the bike industry because they fucking love bikes.
Fucking. Love. Bikes.
These people made the bike industry sizzle and pop like a fried egg and some tasty-ass breakfast scramble. And we (bike media) felt very appreciated by these people. Nerds recognize nerds. There was a symbiotic relationship between media and these passion-led companies. We all love trying out products and riding bikes, so it, too, comes from a place of passion. Again… nerds.
However, once the VC money started to play in the industry, along with it came expectations of growth, or sprawl, if you will. You see, the bike industry wasn’t perfect, but it was using the most of its resources – this might be a stretch, but hear me out. Bike companies valued their relationships with dealers and consumers alike. They understood that to have happy customers, you have to have happy dealers. This is a tenuous relationship as, again, capitalism teaches us to expand and grow rather than nourish and maintain.
Like urbanism, which utilizes density to maximize the efficient use of space, the bike industry was a mostly sustainable operation. And rising up to the pandemic, it had gained a lot of momentum.
With the influx of venture capital, however, it quickly began to sprawl out of control like a city without boundaries. Growth for the sake of growth leads to the death of urbanism. It is how we tip the scales of efficiency into unsustainability.
An Eye-Opening Reality
What I have witnessed over the past five years is as eye-opening as it is scary. Projections of year-over-year growth on PowerPoint decks, excessive optimism about the “market,” and an emphasis on profits over company health while ignoring the critical mass of debt that was piling up all around. It was like watching a pipe burst in a basement and the water was rising, floor by floor.
Once, in a meeting, I raised my hand and asked, “What are we doing to prepare for when this bubble bursts?” Of which the leadership in the conference room looked at me like I had two heads and shouted defensively, “Are you kidding me? Look at this year-over-year growth!” I was able to interject one final thought before the meeting closed: “This isn’t how the bike industry operates; it’s going to burst, and we need to be prepared and ready for it when it does.”
Other quotes I heard while in talks with brands rang to the same tone.
“The average American family will be buying new bikes every three years, so we need to prepare to have that inventory ready when 2023 comes for the families that bought bikes in 2020,” said one brand spokesperson. But similar sentiments were repeated ad nauseam by other brands. This was perhaps the biggest delusion I heard, and it is precisely why those same brands now have a surplus of bikes.
Now supply is up and demand is down. Turns out they were wrong.
So… What the Hell Happened?
As I previously stated, people in operational roles in the bike industry are huge bike nerds. They love bikes. Bikes are their lives. When VC money got involved, those people were canned, and their positions “backfilled” (a term I loathe) with “yes people,” people who would do whatever their bosses (also VC-implanted people, usually) would say.
Many of these cronies worked with the VC implants in previous roles and knew the game. This creates an incredibly disruptive feedback loop to the industry at large. And the people who literally worked their entire lives out of love for bikes had lost their jobs.
Looking at the above chart, VC money came in as the bike industry crescendoed between 2019 and 2020. The fact that a bunch of millionaires expected this graph to continue to project upward says a lot about the character of these people. It also speaks to the tax system they thrive on – which is a whole ‘nother quagmire – because they know if their investments fail, it’s a loss to be reported and less taxes they have to pay overall.
It’s a gamble. A game. And they play with people’s lives like numbers on a spreadsheet.
The problem is that it took decades to get the industry to that peak. Decades of hard, “boots on the ground” work by passionate individuals who largely sought sustainable growth over inflated charts and prospects of ROI. So, when the VC money came in and that line began to plummet, they had to fire the souls of these companies and do everything they could to keep the profitability lines trending in the net positive.
That means people who designed flashlights before were suddenly designing bikes because they worked with the VC implanted CEO at another job. It also meant people who had never ridden nor purchased a bike or walked into a bike shop were cramming DTC plans into the brand’s agenda while forcing small shops to buy more inventory — all to meet sales projections.
Eventually, it all collapsed. And with it, the cycling industry’s relationships eroded. What is perhaps the most sad in all this was to see brands that once supported grassroots efforts such as races or trail work days suddenly couldn’t support those events any longer. Those events bring in new, fresh ridership, stewards, and consumers who have a relationship to the activity beyond a purchase. Working with like-minded souls in a community is what the cycling industry was built on, not spreadsheets and sales projections.
The Deeper Fall of a Broken Bike Industry
Suddenly, brands had no marketing or advertising budgets. Press camps dwindled — all in the name of saving money to have a better quarterly report for the board of directors. Their house of cards was falling. “We have no budget right now” was echoed as the companies reported profitable quarters. Local dealers suffered and countless shops closed. This is already after the number of independent bicycle dealers has shrunk drastically over the past twenty five years.
While all of this was happening, I saw the writing on the wall and fought to get our company back. We are still reeling from the financial blow to this very day. It was a very expensive learning experience, but we’re still here (barely), and that’s what’s important (we’ll make it, I promise).
Good news abounds, though. Brands like Kona were returned to the founders in a positive turn of events. While many brands are still grappling with this disruption, I feel like the soul of the bike industry is returning.
This microcosmic and anecdotal experience ought to be a moment of learning; for me, it was.
Request Line: Fix the Broken Bike Industry
Still, I beg the bike industry to use this period of oncoming economic uncertainty, exacerbated by Trump’s idiotic tariffs, to reassess how it is running itself. I’m not speaking to the larger brands with boards and investors; I’m speaking to independent companies who can pivot, change, and adapt to the ever-changing economy with more agility, hoping they will not engage in the same behavior exhibited during the post-pandemic bubble.
We’ve lost a lot of independent bike shops, many are struggling, and bike media is right there with them, but all hope is not lost. I have some requests that might help steer us back on track to being run more sustainably and use more density with less sprawl.
As someone who is a big bike nerd and loves the passionate people in the bike industry, from product designers to bike mechanics, I have some requests that I think will help steer us back into sustainable waters. Take these with a grain of salt, but allow them to melt on your tongue as food for thought.
I also want to emphasize that if you are reading this from one of these independent companies, please do not feel attacked. These are abstract ideas fueled by private discussions from company employees and bike shop owners. Consider it a brainstorming session, not notes from a graded school paper…
Shrink for Efficiency
Less sprawl, more density. Companies ought to be trimming down and working on achieving efficiency right now. Fewer SKUs, fewer overlapping models, and a reduction of excess are needed. It’s confusing for consumers and hard on shops. Let’s see these product lines get tighter, neater, and easier to understand for everyone involved.
Sustainability
Growth for the sake of growth is not sustainable. Focus on quality, maintenance, and effeciency. Deliver on your intent and stay the course, striking a balance. Rivendell gets it! It’s why we launched our Rad Bazaar in 2023.
Right to Repair
More companies ought to embrace the right-to-repair principles.
Model Years
We don’t need new bike models year after year with marginal gains, geometric tweaks, fresh paint, and new tech as the means to stoke consumerism. Luckily, this seems to have slowed in the post-pandemic world.
Scrap (Most) DTC and Support IBD
Direct-to-consumer is hurting many and killing some bike shops. It’s sad to see small, independent companies shaft their dealer network over a sale when the dealer is doing all of the legwork. I see it all the time. A customer takes hours of a shop’s time, asks questions, makes a decision thanks to the sales team, and then goes home, only to order the bike online, where the dealer doesn’t get a cut whatsoever. The same happens with components. Labor bills alone cannot float a shop allotting time it would normally be spending on labor hand-holding consumers, only to lose the sale to online spending.
With modern POS systems, it is SO EASY for a brand to identify an order and transfer it to the local dealer’s POS so the dealer gets the sale. But this is a rarity. At least with the few shop owners I spoke to.
If this behavior continues, there will be no more bike shops. This is sprawl behavior. Do better, everyone.
More Localized Production
Brands like Ibis, Santa Cruz, Revel, Pivot, and others employ local people to assemble their bikes both as a quality control method and as a means to avoid paying taxes on imported, complete bikes from Taiwan. Bringing more jobs to the bike industry is a good thing. Let’s see more of that. Connecting with bikes with our hands keeps us in tune with the products we are creating.
Less Proprietary Tech
Make a wish and toss a coin into a well for this one. But seriously, can we all just agree on some easy standards to reduce waste?
We’re largely decided on wheel diameters, tire clearances, and two overarching drivetrain specs (boost versus non-boost). While it’s easy to joke about standards with a doom and gloom disposition, I will say with optimism that we’re getting there!
Fewer Electronics
Lithium, cobalt, and other rare earth minerals are finite resources. The neocolonial child slavery that is happening in Africa is due to its increase in demand from consumers. Geopolitics aside, why does every new bike have to have a battery on it? More cable-actuated derailleurs (Hell, make your derailleurs rebuildable, too!) are a good thing in terms of sustainability and accessibility. And do we need so many e-bikes*?
Everyone wants us to review them. It seems that the bike industry is all saying, “e-bikes are going to save us!” and that’s not the case at all. It’s simply another way of expanding into undeveloped land. This is a panicked sprawl. This is widening a highway in hopes of alleviating traffic. We’re making the bicycle dependent upon an expensive to extract resource that will run out, is not necessary, and in the meantime, children are a part of the supply chain.
*Of course, we want people with disabilities to be able to ride e-bikes, and e-cargo bikes replacing cars on the street is a good thing. But a 20-something doing e-bike laps at the local trails is a gross abuse of technology, where the means do not justify the ends.
Sustainable Technologies
Speaking of sustainability, some brands are doing more than the low-hanging fruit of greenwashing their products. Cycling is inherently “green” when used as a means of moving about a city. Schwalbe’s recycling tire and tube program is pushing a positive paradigm. More of that, please!
More Metal
Carbon production is wasteful. Carbon production is not wasteful. No matter what your viewpoint is, carbon frames aren’t going to be here in forty years, like steel, aluminum, or titanium bikes, regardless of their production “carbon footprint (another barf marketing term).” Let’s see more metal bikes! 🤘
Remember, if you’re culling your catalog, you can invest in a higher-end steel or aluminum frame that will be as light as, if not lighter than, a carbon counterpart.
More Repairs
I once saw an entire shipping container full of cracked bike frames being shipped back to China for “disposal” while visiting a large bike company. I’d love to see more big companies repairing their frames. When a cracked frame is warrantied, it is usually necessary to saw it in half, which is incredibly wasteful. Meanwhile, Mondraker does carbon frame repair in-house on its bikes, this means they have more jobs, too. Let’s see more of that in the US!
More Collaboration
There was a time when the largest bike company in the world worked with the first mountain bike company and developed products for the new sport. Both companies benefited from this collaboration. It’s okay not to be the expert and ask for help or uplift the little people occasionally. Let’s see more collaboration across all sectors of the bike industry. A rising tide brings up all the ships in the harbor.
Support Independent Media!
Corporate-backed media is crumbling, and companies continue to sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into the pockets of millionaires to lay off their staff, switch to AI imagery and copy, and cut budgets. So they can maintain profits, all while small media suffers. This is an ecosystem. Spread your support around. You might not think it matters to the industry as a whole, but small media is what steers this enormous ship.
Reassess Your Affiliate Program
Brands used to buy ads and support independent media. Now, they have hired PR agencies who push affiliate marketing on independent websites as if it comes close to the support they were receiving before.
Affiliate marketing is when a website uses a special link to track the online sales of bike products. If a customer buys something, we get 3-5% of that sale. While this might sound like a good thing, affiliate marketing has replaced ad sales, and the affiliate percentages do not add up to a significant amount of income. Compared to adbuy, it is a minuscule fraction of income.
To give you some perspective, if we drive $200,000 in direct, trackable sales through 250,000 click-throughs (which websites can charge up to $1.40 per click!) over a year, we are going to pocket around $6,000-8,000 in total. That’s $500-666 a month. This does not even come close to paying for our monthly server bill, which is two to three times that with our traffic.
Bike Media Does A LOT of the Work
We check out the products, use them, photograph them, review them honestly, and get eyes on them. Isn’t that the goal? PR companies are simply sharing the product with us, usually after we get the company’s newsletter announcing the same exact product.
If affiliate marketing works so well, why not support the media delivering the product to potential customers with advertising revenue and give the PR companies the affiliate commissions as their sole income? Honest question. If you don’t like that proposal, ask yourself why it’s fair to do it to us.
We’re lucky to have a few solid brands buy ads from us AND still use affiliate marketing. A thank you to them – you know who you are! But something’s gotta give.
The lack of support is bleeding us dry.
In Closing
The past five years feel like I’ve been in a rock tumbler. And I’m waiting for a polished piece of jasper to emerge. I’m amazed we’re still here. But we’re still here. That’s what’s important. We’re here because we really love bikes and the people who make and ride them. And because YOU come here, read articles like this, comment, share them with friends, buy our merch, click on our ads, and support us in other ways!
Please support independent media. Right now, we are beholden to the macroeconomic fluctuations of the bike industry’s missteps. Readership support is the most sustainable path forward.
If you haven’t already, I really want to encourage you to sign up for The Radavist Membership and help support our 100 fuckin’ percent independent Reportage.
I think we’re doing a great job and would love to carry this momentum along a sustainable path for all to enjoy.
xo
If you’re new to this series, welcome to The Dust-Up. This will be a semi-regular platform for Radavist editors and contributors to make bold, sometimes controversial claims about cycling. A way to challenge long-held assumptions that deserve a second look. Sometimes, they will be global issues with important, far-reaching consequences. Other times, they will shed light on little nerdy corners of our world that don’t get enough attention.
