Transportation tops emission sources, agriculture a close second
After a sharp decline in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020, Minnesota’s emissions rose in 2021 and 2022, according to new data released by the state last month. Agriculture, the state’s second largest source of emissions, continued as the largest source of the potent GHGs methane and nitrous oxide. The Trump Administration’s aggressive cuts to climate policies threatens to limit valuable resources the state planned to use to reduce emissions in the future.
Figure 1: Minnesota’s greenhouse gas emissions and statutory goals
Source: https://data.pca.state.mn.us/views/Greenhousegasemissionsdata/TotalGHGemissionsgoals?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y
Minnesota had previously set targets to reduce emissions by 15% below 2005 levels by 2015, 30% by 2025, and 80% by 2050. Annual emissions dropped during the pandemic restrictions in 2020 to 118 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MT-CO2e), but by 2022 emissions rose to 126 MT CO2e — a 6.4% increase. The new report by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) concluded that, “Between 2005 and 2022, Minnesota’s GHG emissions fell by 14%, making it difficult to achieve our goals if we maintain current trends … The good news is that 2022 emissions reflect a continuation of pre-pandemic long-term downward trends.”
Agriculture produced 25% of the state’s emissions, mostly coming from fertilizer and livestock. While electricity emissions have declined 50% and transportation declined 6% since 2005, agriculture emissions have remained largely flat, with a 1% increase over that period.
The MPCA reported that, “Agricultural practices in Minnesota are responsible for 96% of the state’s nitrous oxide emissions and 44% of the state’s methane emissions. The largest sources of nitrous oxide are the land application of synthetic fertilizers and manure, and the subsequent mineralization and runoff of that nitrogen. Methane emissions are caused by cattle digestion and manure storage practices.”
Figure 2: A breakdown of agriculture emissions
Source: https://data.pca.state.mn.us/views/Greenhousegasemissionsdata/Sectordetails?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y
Much of the state’s agriculture emissions are tied to the large Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) model of production for beef, dairy and hog operations, which require large liquified manure lagoons. Liquified manure systems have contributed to both methane and nitrous oxide emissions since 2005. The spraying of liquified manure and the application of nitrogen fertilizer to grow corn, primarily for ethanol and animal feed, contribute to nitrous oxide emissions. Minnesota currently has over 65,000 farms operating 21.5 million acres, and approximately 25,000 farms with animals, including 8.9 million hogs, and 2.1 million cattle and calves. Research from Food and Water Watch shows the highest density of CAFOs in south and western Minnesota, which mirrors the location of many impaired waters in the state.
The MPCA reported on multiple ways climate change is already affecting farmers, making conditions warmer and wetter. “The extreme conditions Minnesota experienced in 2023 and 2024, including an exceptionally warm winter and major spring rains, were consistent with ongoing climate change trends … Frequent and intense storms are damaging homes, businesses, infrastructure, farms, and ecosystems.”
The MPCA highlighted the impact of warmer winters in the state: “Over the last 50 years, Minnesota’s winter has warmed an incredible 13 times faster than summer. Warmer winters allow some pests like ticks and certain invasive species to survive and multiply. Over those 50 years, Minnesota lakes have also lost an average of 10 to 14 days of ice, affecting lake and fish health, outdoor recreation opportunities, and business owners.”
The MPCA highlighted several strategies to reduce agriculture emissions, including the restoration of peatlands that have been drained for roughly 405,000 acres of cropland in the state. Peatlands are effective carbon sinks and their restoration, through rewetting, can bring multiple benefits, including providing habitat for unique native species and protecting downstream water quality. The MPCA also pointed to the rising adoption of cover crops in Minnesota, from 408,000 acres in 2012 to 760,000 acres in 2022. Further expanding the use of cover crops on the states 20 million acres could provide both adaptation and mitigation benefits for cropland.
The MPCA suggests livestock related emissions can be reduced with better animal genetics and manure digesters that capture methane from liquid manure lagoons at large-scale CAFO operations and convert it to “biogas” for energy generation. The use of digesters is highly controversial, as digester systems do not address direct cow emissions, manure-related nitrous oxide emissions, nor water and other air pollution associated with the CAFO system. Biogas also creates perverse incentives to expand the size of animal operations to produce more manure (and methane gas). The MPCA also acknowledges the climate benefits of pasture-based systems for managing manure: “managing manure as a solid and grazing livestock in pastures generates little methane because the manure is broken down by aerobic microbes. Other methane-reducing manure management interventions include composting and avoiding land application during wet field conditions.”
The MPCA report excludes more proven strategies to reduce emissions, such as a pause on permitting new or expanding CAFOs and opportunities for farmers to transition out of that system, or supporting more diversified cropping systems that would reduce corn acres and require less nitrogen fertilizer.
Several new factors pose challenges to reducing Minnesota’s emissions. Minnesota is starting to experience rising energy demands from planned data centers coming to the state. The Star Tribune reported that at least 10 new data centers from companies like Meta, Amazon and Microsoft could consume as much energy as every home in the state. One of the nation’s largest agriculture banks warns that rural areas including farms may face power shortages associated with the new data centers.
The MPCA projects emissions to decline based partially on federal funding, like the Inflation Reduction Act, that now may be blocked. The Trump Administration has frozen funding for many of these programs and is exploring ending some programs outright in order to claw back committed resources. For farmers, these resources include additional dollars for highly popular farm conservation programs, such as the Conservation Stewardship Program and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP). IATP’s analysis last year found that demand for these programs in Minnesota far exceeded the number of contracts awarded. Additionally, a recently awarded $200 million grant from the EPA to Minnesota to cut climate pollution, including from the state’s farm and food system, could be vulnerable. While the Trump Administration once again withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, Minnesota is part of the U.S. Climate Alliance, which includes 24 states committed to meeting committed climate goals.
To reach Minnesota’s climate targets the state will need to reduce its second largest source of emissions: agriculture. Minnesota is updating its Climate Action Framework this year to identify more specific steps to meet climate targets, including for working lands. This will ultimately require opportunities for farmers to transition from a CAFO and corn-based system of agriculture toward scale-appropriate pasture-based systems, combined with more diversified cropping rotations that focus on building soil health and biodiversity. Restoring peatlands and grasslands and protecting farmland should be priorities. It’s a tall order, but the lack of progress since 2005 on agriculture emissions says we need to get started.
