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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 27, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Boeing’s inability to deliver 787s on time and continued delays in certification of the 777-9 mean airlines planning to replace aging aircraft or expand must retain older aircraft longer than expected.
Airbus’ inability to deliver the A350 on planned schedules also affects fleet renewal and expansion plans, but to a much lesser extent than caused by Boeing.
IAI’s Big Twin Boeing 777-300ERF. Credit: IAI.
Boeing’s circumstances also mean that feedstock intended for conversions of 777-300ERs from passenger aircraft to freighters upset the business models of the three P2F conversion companies: IAI Bedek, KMC, and Mammoth Freighters.
Finally, certification of IAI’s conversation program is running two years behind schedule, and Boeing’s reluctance to license critical flight control software has also stalled P2F programs.
In addition to the problems outlined above, the inability to convert the big twin 777-300ER to freighters or receive new 777-8Fs and A350Fs in the coming years means that 747-400 freighters, which are gas-guzzlers by today’s standards and expensive to maintain, must remain in service longer than planned.
It’s a bleak picture emerging for the near- to-mid-term freighter market.
New production freighters
Airbus and Boeing each ended last year with orders for 55 A350 and 777-8 freighters, respectively. Entry into Service (EIS) for the A350 is targeted for 2027. The 777-8F EIS follows by a year, under Boeing’s plan.
But neither company has a history of delivering derivatives on schedule in recent years. Boeing has the additional uncertainty of certifying the leading 777X, the -9, which is already six or seven years behind schedule. Last week, Boeing said it expects certification of the 777-9 in 2026.
However, this has been a moving target since 2019, when the second fatal accident of the 737 MAX threw Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration into crisis and upset all certification plans. The 777-9 was supposed to be certified in the first quarter of 2020. Boeing hoped to advance this to December 2019.
The MAX crisis revealed that the FAA gave Boeing too much certification authority. Investigations revealed the cozy relationship between the FAA and Boeing, as well as Boeing’s own disdain of the FAA in some quarters. The FAA’s entire oversight and certification of Boeing airplanes came under scrutiny. The certification program and progress of the 777X ground to a halt as the FAA reviewed all the work on the big widebody, which continues to this day.
Technical issues with the 777-9s giant GE9X engines and other problems added to the certification progress delays. Despite Boeing’s forecast, some customers doubt whether Boeing will achieve certification next year.
The 777-8F is supposed to follow the 777-9’s EIS by two years. EIS of the 777-8 passenger model is supposed to follow the freighter two years later.
According to market information, Boeing has no freighter slot available until 2031.
The A350F
Airbus continues to face delivery delays for the A350 passenger model, largely due to supplier delays—principally with interiors. Certification by Europe’s regulator, EASA, of the A321XLR derivative took much longer than expected in the new regulatory environment. This may cast doubt on the timing of the A350F.
More to the point for Airbus is demand for the A350 passenger model. Demand outstrips supply and the production rate. Airbus is increasing the rate to 10/mo, including freighters, and wants to hit 12/mo by 2028. Its rate targets in the past moved to the right because of supply chain difficulties. Some believe that the chain will catch up by next year. Others predict it won’t be until 2030 that the supply chain is back to normal. This uncertainty overhangs any plans Airbus makes to boost rates.
Furthermore, one customer doesn’t believe that rate 12 is enough to meet the demand. To go beyond this rate means Airbus likely must undertake capital expenses to expand the wing plant in Broughton, Wales, and perhaps the final assembly lines in Toulouse, France. According to market information, Airbus doesn’t have a delivery slot available for the freighter until 2030.
Conversions
The leasing company GECAS placed the first order for 777-300ER conversions, selecting IAI, in late 2019. The initial order was for 20; a subsequent order added three more. AerCap later acquired GECAS. GECAS’ 777s were coming off lease. Finding replacement lessees for widebody airplanes is a narrow market—and it’s costly because of interior reconfiguration, maintenance, and engine overhaul costs. Converting to freighters considerably extends the airplane’s life, an essential factor for lessors.
KMC and Mammoth launched their P2F plans while the COVID pandemic was underway. Cargo demand was high, passenger traffic was low, and there was plenty of feedstock. IAI and KMC focused on the 777-300ER, while Mammoth offered the only 777-200LR conversions in addition to the 777-300ER.
IAI, a well-established P2F company, jumped into the lead with the GECAS order. It’s added other customers since then. Another lessor, Altavair, agreed to buy a group of -300ERs from Middle Eastern airlines for conversion. It, too, selected IAI after a lengthy evaluation of the three offers.
KMC and Mammoth are start-up companies. KMC won a small deal with a small European lessor, Dr. Peters. Peters agreed to a firm order to convert three -300ERs and an option for seven more. Emirates Airline was the feedstock to Peters. KMC has yet to cut metal on the first aircraft.
Mammoth, with deep pockets at the time from private equity investor Fortress, purchased 10 777-200LRs from Delta Air Lines for conversion. Texas-based Jetran later purchased these airplanes for forward lease to DHL. Mammoth began “cutting metal” on some of the airplanes. Mammoth also won small orders to convert -300ERs for other customers.
Money, war, and Boeing
KMC was the weakest company financially. Market sources indicate today that KMC’s financial condition is doubtful, leading potential customers to look elsewhere. IAI is the strongest company. However, the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas caused some airlines to shy away from the Tel Aviv-based company. Mammoth is said to be looking for money outside of Fortress, but its prime problem is the lack of feedstock. One of its customers was acquiring a -300ER from a Russian airline. When Russia invaded Ukraine, obtaining aircraft records proved problematic.
However, Boeing’s inability to certify the 777-9 and the long delivery delays of the 787 proved to be the greatest problem. Emirates, the largest operator of -300ERs, now has extended leases on all the 777s it could by five or six years because it can’t get the 777-9 or 787s it has on order, and A350s were late. Emirates is now investing hundreds of millions of dollars in replacing and upgrading the interiors of its 777 fleet. Qatar and Etihad airways also extended 300ER leases, as some Asian carriers have.
Technical issues
Technical issues also arose that involved Boeing. The 777-300ER flight control system is computerized. It’s designed for the weights of the -300ER passenger airplane. IAI and Mammoth want to increase the empty weight of the -300ER to increase the payload. This requires software changes and a license from Boeing. Boeing reportedly refuses to grant a license, partly driven by safety concerns from the MAX crashes and crisis. Even though these conversions are third-party, it’s still Boeing’s name on the side of the airplane. If a crash occurs traced to the flight control software changes, Boeing’s name will be in the headlines—not the conversion house.
KMC doesn’t propose changing the weight or payload, so it’s not affected by this specific issue. Its lack of funding and feedstock are the inhibiting factors facing KMC.
Certification
IAI’s first flight of its conversion was in May 2023. It hoped for certification and EIS in 2022. Flight testing has been slow, and certification stalled, largely due to the flight control software issue.
Mammoth publicly forecasted EIS in 2024. This target has come and gone. Also, dealing with the flight control software element, there is no telling when EIS will be for the -300ER. Although conversion began on the -200lR, it’s still awaiting certification. As of last month, Mammoth had yet to begin flight testing on the -LR conversions.
KMC remains in the hangar. It has one -300ER, but no metal has been cut. Market sources say this is due to the lack of funding.
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