By Chris Sloan
January 28, 2025 © Leeham News: RTX chief executive Christoper T. Calio says the company’s number one priority is executing on its $218 bn backlog and meeting its commitment to customers – topped by the Geared Turbo Fan program. MRO and Original Equipment momentum has gathered pace in the last year since the powdered metal saga began two years ago.
“AOGs[Aircraft On Ground] have been stable. MRO output is the key enabler. PW1100 output was up 30% last year. So, very good, good progress in terms of material flow and in-shop performance,” he proclaimed. Pratt’s goal of 30% growth in 2025 will be governed by the supply chain – particularly powdered metal. The company didn’t disclose current AOG numbers – which have been up to 30% of the fleet, with protracted durations of up to a year commonplace.
Pratt Sees Powdered Metal Progress
P&W says structural castings were up 12% year-over-year. It claims that isothermal forging’s output increased significantly as they incorporated full-life powder metal parts into MRO and new engine deliveries. “Our 100% focus again is on bending the AOG curve to ensure that we get the assets back into our customer’s hands as quickly as possible,” emphasized Calio. Powder metal compensation impacts are projected to be between $1.1 and $1.3 bn, up around $100 million year-over-year at the midpoint. RTX sees that its legal and contract matters paid last year will not repeat in 2025, resulting in a tailwind of approximately $1.5 bn.
The balancing act between PW1100 OEM and MRO appears to be paying off, with shop output up 30% over last year with a gradual improvement in 2025. Engine shipments were up 14% on a year-on-year basis.
Aftermarket and Advantage
Aftermarket is paying dividends again, nearing double-digit margins. “We’ve talked about some of the EIS contracts that we have here, and as those continue to age out and burn down and get replaced with newer contracts with the airline customers, we’re getting good pricing because the engine’s performing really, really well. And so, in addition to that, we’re putting a lot of new material and enhancements into the engine to improve its durability, “said Nathan Ware, VP of Investor Relations.
Pratt’s legacy IAE V-2500 continues to be a steady contributor as well, as next generation airframe delays keep older “ceo” and next generation frames in the air. The delayed retirements, ironically partially bought on by Pratt, are generating tailwinds. The propulsion maker says the 800 V-2500 shop visits will remain the same in 2025 with robust demand for at least the next several years. “We’re getting good content on those shop visits because 20% of those engines haven’t seen their first shop visit yet and only 55% have seen one,” Calio disclosed.
The eagerly awaited GTF Advantage upgrade, lowering fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by up to 1% compared to the current model GTF is on track for certification in the first half of 2025, with first deliveries to follow in the second half of the year. Pratt boasts Advantage’s (GTFA) test schedule is more than double the endurance testing of the original program. “The GTF aftermarket margins are going to be all about driving increased time on wing on the installed fleet today, and those things we’re going to be delivering before GTFA fully cuts over,” Calio explained. “We are aggressively continuing to put in and develop. enhancements to improve time on wing, whether those be additional cooling holes, whether those be coating.” Pratt is identifying elements that can be incorporated in the “base program”.
Fourth quarter 2024 sales of $7.6 billion dollars rose 18%, with OE shooting up 31%, and aftermarket increasing by 17%. Pratt forecasts 10% commercial aftermarket growth, and OE growth to be up mid-single digits year over year.
Collins Complications
RTX’s Collins Aerospace division reported mixed results. Commercial aftermarket sales were up 12%, driven by a 21% increase in provisioning, an 18% increase in mods and upgrades, and a 9% increase in parts and repair. Commercial OE sales for the quarter were down 6% versus the prior year, driven primarily by expected, lower narrowbody volume on the 737 MAX exacerbated by the Boeing strike. Division-wide operating profit fell by 2%. Commercial OE sales are expected to be up mid-single digits as increased volume on multiple platforms is partially offset by impacts from the expected timing of our customers production ramps.
In contrast to sales growth, supply chains and certification continue to be pain points for production. Micro-electronics have been a culprit on the avionics side, but they are coming back in line. Interiors, particularly premium first and business class seats are triggering well documented wide-body aircraft deliveries delays, much to the consternation of airline customers. “These are complex, and the certification requirements are relatively high. They’ve got a high bar there, but we think we have our arms around those and what we need to do there and get those certified to the airframers,” said Calio. Heat exchanger supply chain snafus have bedeviled aircraft deliveries like the 787, but Calio points out production doubled last year, and remains on track to meet production ramps and recovery.
Overall, Collins notched 4th quarter sales increases of 8% to $7.5 bn with profit margins improving by 17%.
A Strong 2024, Guiding to an Even Stronger 2025
RTX’s 2024 sales increased by 9% to $80.8 bn over the prior year, guiding to 4-6% growth of $83 – $84 bn. Collins enjoyed an 8% sales increase to $28.2 bn, posting a $4.3 bn operating profit on a 8% margin. Pratt & Whitney reported operating profit of $504 million, up 32% versus a 2% loss in 2023. Sales climbed from $18.3 bn to $28.3 bn. Overall, analysts were pleased with a report containing no surprises, beating expectations causing the stock to rise by 3% following the call. Vertical Research Partner’s Report titled “No Complaints” summed up positive analysts sentiment: “RTX ended 2024 with a good quarter, and its 2025 guidance anticipates another year of steady progress in all three of its divisions.”
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