Cirium, an aviation analytics company, has estimated that Indian carriers will induct 96 aircraft in 2025. Cirum has made estimates for five years from 2025 to 2029 which sees 841 deliveries to Indian carriers – Air India group, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet over a period of five years. These are not net additions since a few airlines are likely to see fleet replacement as well. A lot of this hinges on the financial position and expansion of SpiceJet, since a substantial number (117) planes are earmarked for SpiceJet, with 42 and 35 being the induction count for 2028 and 2029 as per projects of Cirum. The report has been shared with a limited audience and not available in the public domain.
Split between Airbus and Boeing
Of the 96 planes which Cirium estimates to be delivered to Indian carriers in 2025, three-fourths will be Airbus aircraft. A staggering 73 planes out of 96 are Airbus, while only 21 are Boeing. Cirium projects five A350s to be delivered to Air India in 2025. If that happens as planned, Air India will be on cloud nine as it gets a breather with a new product and ability to expand. Its expansion has been held back and so is the case with its furbishment.
Split between Narrowbody and Widebody
Astounding 93% of all deliveries will be narrowbody planes, with just two turboprops and five A350s (for Air India). India will continue to be a narrowbody dominated market all along. While the projections show Air India getting 10 each of A350s in 2026 and 2027, with IndiGo expected to induct 9 A350s each in 2027 and 2028, the narrowbody inductions for 2027 and 2026 are humongous as well, especially for the Air India group with possibility of Air India and Air India express combined inducting more narrowbody planes than IndiGo.
Air India and Air India Express
The group is expected to induct 24 aircraft in 2025, with the split being eight A320neo, four A321neo, five A350s and seven MAX. In 2026, the airline is projected to induct 68 planes, while 2027 will see it induct 71 planes. The airline is projected to induct 106 and 154 planes in 2028 and 2029 respectively.
IndiGo
The airline has close to 1000 undelivered aircraft on its orderbook. Last year it took delivery of over 50 aircraft and is projected to induct 58 aircraft this year. IndiGo will induct 47 planes next year and 46 in 2027, including the A350. In 2028 and 2029, the airline is expected to induct 65 and 52 aircraft respectively. These numbers could change as I anticipate IndiGo to maintain its leadership in delivery and not cede it to rival Air India.
Akasa Air
The airline had very limited inductions last year, thanks to the issues at Boeing. WIth additional funds at disposal, Akasa Air may tweak its plans for the future. As per Cirium, the airline is expected to induct 10 aircraft this year, followed by 13, 19, 24 and 30 in subsequent years until 2029.
SpiceJet
The airline received a second tranche of funds in 2024 and has been on a spree of settlements with lessors and other vendors. Yet, the airline has not been able to take-off in true sense. The airline has time and again informed how many planes it expects to make operational but has not been able to meet the deadlines. As per Cirium, the airline will induct four aircraft this year and eleven in the next. From 2027 to 2029, the airline will induct 25,42 and 35 respectively.
Network Thoughts
These projections could undergo a sea change due to the market conditions, geopolitical issues, supply chain constraints and market dynamics. If the inductions take place as planned, the 2028 and 2029 inductions for Air India will outweigh those of competition handsomely.
How are the airports handling these projections and gearing up for these inductions is an equally interesting area which needs to be watched.
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