2025 SEC Football Schedule Breakdown: Part One — Alabama once draws the short end of the stick

For that last several years, I’ve been breaking down the SEC schedules, demonstrating the structural factors that play into a team’s success (or failure) well before the season’s opening kick. And, I’ve been pretty good at spitballing (predicting Tennessee to have a big year in 2022; noting that South Carolina and Florida got hammered in 2023, etc).

It’s a very long tradition in Birmingham that some teams are almost always going to draw easier schedules (Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky etc.); others are usually going to get slammed (Alabama, LSU, etc.), while others will vary depending on how good of a year their opponents are having (Tennessee is usually very high on this list). And nowhere was the SEC’s favoritism on display quite like last season, where the imbalance between Texas and the rest of the conference was nauseating to behold.

The degree of difficulty here is defined as a combination of rested opponents, back-to-back road games, tough road contests, and returning teams with winning records — under divisionless play, Birmingham controls how hard your schedule is, not your geography. So these are solely discretionary coddlings or screwjobs via Greg Sankey and Co.

This is going to be broken down into two parts, because 16 teams are far too unwieldy.

I will repeat what I wrote last year, however: “After you see how the SEC has grossly unbalanced this scheduling, you seriously question how we can ever have a meaningful SEC Championship game.”

So, what does the SEC have in store for 2025? We’ve broken down the schedules for you, dear reader, and here’s the first part. SPOILER: If you were expecting a bit more parity in scheduling, prepare to be woefully disappointed.

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2025 SEC Schedule Degree of Difficulty

Team
Number of Opponents Coming off Bye Weeks
Tough Road Trips
Consecutive Road Trips / Teams
SEC Teams Coming Off Bowl Seasons

Alabama:

• Bye Opponents: 4 (LSU, @Mizzou, @UGA, Oklahoma)
• Tough Road Games: 4 (Auburn, Georgia, Mizzou, USCe)
• Consecutive Road trips: None
• Bowl teams: 8

Last Year’s Prognosis: If Georgia is on the receiving end of the Dildo of Consequence, then Alabama just got it shoved in dry and sideways by the Thermonuclear Warhead of Anal Oblivion. Without a kiss. Without unlimited breadsticks at Olive Garden. Welcome to the SEC, Kalen DeBoer. As usual, Alabama appears to have one of, if not the hardest schedule on the menu.

Alabama could be a Top 5 team and still finish with three losses. In fact, I’m counting on it. This is a tough, tough schedule. Let’s see how long that honeymoon lasts in a transitional year following the greatest coach of all time.

You could almost copy and paste last year’s prognosis, though make it even harder since the Tide adds trips to Athens, 10-win Mizzou and USCe, and the usual jackassery of a trip to Auburn. Alabama also opens on the road in Tallahassee, hosts Wisconsin, and every last SEC team on its schedule is coming off a bowl game. I’ve said all offseason that Alabama will be an improved team but the record may well not reflect that. 10-2 would be an awesome year; 9-3 is just as likely.

This is the hardest schedule in the country with the sole saving grace being a double-bye with Georgia.

Arkansas:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (@Tennessee)
• Tough Road Games: 3 (at LSU, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Texas, LSU)
• Bowl teams: 7

Last Year’s Prognosis: The SEC absolutely hates Sam Pittman. I can think of no other reason to do this to him. Arkansas will be coach-shopping by Thanksgiving. [Edit: they did, but the Hogs are cheap and just signed 6-6 Pittman up for another season.]

The Hogs don’t have an easy trip here, with 7 of 8 teams coming off of bowl campaigns. The tough road games are ridiculously tough, and the SEC even threw in a b2b roadie to LSU and Texas for good measure. The only thing that prevents this from being miserably tough is that there is just one rested opponent, and it’s a double-bye with the cross-state Vols.

Auburn:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (@Texas A&M)
• Tough Road Games: 3 (@ TAMU, Oklahoma, and I guess we have to include Vandy here now too, huh?)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (A&M, Oklahoma)
• Bowl teams: 6

Last Year’s Prognosis: If Auburn can’t win eight games with this schedule, then Hugh Freeze is every bit the hack that we suspect he is. If the ‘Barn is going to rebound, it will have to do so at home. The four non-cons should be four wins for the Tigers. And god help them if they’re not. 9-3/8-4 should be the ceiling, but the floor is just as easily .500.

LOL. Auburn wishes they could have made the Birmingham Bowl.

This year, the schedule is even than last season. Two road games are very hard — you can 100% pencil in some back-to-back losses in Norman and College Station — and Vanderbilt is not a joke in Nashville now. The Tigers can’t make it up at home either. Since when is a visit by Missouri, the Tide and Georgia exactly easy? Last year was a disappointment to finish near .500. This year, the ‘Barn may hit .500 in the league…but color me skeptical.

Florida:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (UGA)
• Tough Road Games: 3 (LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Ole Miss, Kentucky)
• Bowl teams: 6

Last Year’s Prognosis: The Gators host Ole Miss, A&M and LSU. They play their two in-state rivals (with FSU on the road). And they even host UCF, who is more than capable of beating this team. They also have the second-most rested opponents (3). If UF hits .500, then Billy has earned another year’s reprieve. It’s not quite Alabama/Georgia hard. But it is difficult enough to get someone fired.

Reader, that schedule almost did get Napier fired. A late season course-correction, timed with the stellar play of DJ Lagway, made the Gators a hot commodity for 2025 and saved Billy’s job. This year, after three straight brutal seasons of scheduling, UF finally gets a bit of a breather. There are “just” six opponents coming off bowl games. The sole rested opponent is a double-bye with the ‘Dawgs. And the road schedule is tough, but manageable — that is, if this team is what it is touted to be. There is a B2B road trip, but again, Kentucky and a rebuilding Ole Miss squad are manageable. Nine or 10 wins better be the expectation here.

Georgia:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (UF, UA, @ AUB, Texas)
• Tough Road Games: 3 (Auburn, Tennessee)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Ole Miss, Kentucky)
• Bowl teams: 6

Last Year’s Prognosis: Georgia finally faces a schedule commensurate with their ranking. After being shielded by the SEC East for decades, the ‘Dawgs hit the road to play some quality. And they play a lot of it…Overall, 6 of their 8 games come against teams that had a winning record. ‘State is a given. But the other one that didn’t? Florida. The ‘Dawgs also open the season vs. Clemson. This is, finally, an objectively tough schedule. Earn that money, Kirby

Kirby did, in fact, earn that money. But it wasn’t easy, as UGA had two conference losses for the first time in years, though still claimed the SEC crown and made the playoffs. I hate to give the Dawgs any credit, but he’s the best in the biz at the moment.

It’s a rebuilding year in Athens, but the schedule is much more forgiving than last season. The Bulldogs get two of their three hardest opponents at home, and the road trip to Knoxville comes on the heels of mighty Marshall and Austin Peay. UGA plays the fewest bowl teams of anyone in the conference (just five), and has no consecutive road trips. The one thing making it a bit harder is that, like ‘Bama, UGA faces four rested opponents including Texas, who gets an extra week. Two are double-byes (UA, UF), sure, and the other one is a rivalry game against the Barn. Still, in terms of the SEC, that’s about as gentle a landing as you’re going to find. Seems like everything is back to normal in Athens…and Birmingham. Rebuilding or no, anything under 11 wins is patently unacceptable.

Kentucky:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (Vandy)
• Tough Road Games: 4 (USCe, AUB, UGA, and Vandy)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (USCe, UGA)
• Bowl teams: 8

Last Year’s Prognosis: Momentum is the name of the game in Lexington too, but they may not get there. It’s a decent schedule, but likely a bit harder than usual…you can see even a goodish team going 7-5

It was not a goodish team, folks. The ‘Cats stunk. But they beat Ole Miss on the road, keeping them out of the playoffs, and that’s both hilarious and likely saved Stoops’ job.

This year, using our usual difficulty matrices, it seems like it’s another medium-tier schedule on tap: Some tough road games, not many foes coming off a bye, one obligatory B2B road trip etc. But where the Wildcats are going to get hammered is in their home games. Check this out: Texas, Ole Miss, Auburn, Florida. Yikes. Last year was a disappointing 2-win campaign. This year, with a road trip to Vandy thrown in, two wins may be the ceiling. Looks like another year in the basement for the ‘Cats. Losing three or four home games is how you get fired in this league…and every one of UK’s opponents went bowling last season.

LSU:

• Bye Opponents: 1 (UGA)
• Tough Road Games: 3 (LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Ole Miss, Kentucky)
• Bowl teams: 6

Last Year’s Prognosis: LSU was finally given a break as well. Alongside Ole Miss, the Tigers play the fewest teams coming off of bowls. They get Alabama at home, off of a bye. Their tough road games are still manageable. And though LSU has three rested opponents, two of them are Arkansas and Vandy. There’s no excuse for this team not winning 9-10 games, despite being blasted by attrition.

Usually the Tigers get slammed pretty good by Bammerham, though last year was an exception. We said there was no excuse to not win 9 games; they won 9. This season the Tigers do draw four rested opponents, but half of them should be manageable, including Auburn and Arkansas. USCe is a tough one, sure. But the annual double-bye with ‘Bama is a lifesaver on that score. Seven teams are coming off of bowl games, but half of the road trips ought to be winnable for a team with this much talent (Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Vandy). And, two of their hardest opponents are at home too (A&M, Florida). Still, it’s a bit tougher sledding overall than last season, and you can easily see a sub-.500 year in Baton Rouge. 7-5ish sort of campaign for Brian Kelly, methinks, with 8-4 being the ceiling.

Ole Miss:

• Bye Opponents: None. Literally none.
• Tough Road Games: 2 (UGA, Oklahoma)
• Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Georgia / Oklahoma)
• Bowl teams: 6

Last Year’s Prognosis: Ole Miss was given a very easy schedule, on balance. They are tied for the fewest number of opponents coming off of a bowl season. The Rebels drew OU and UGA in Oxford. There’s no Alabama on the schedule, nor Auburn (and the latter has always featured very tough games). The road schedule only has two tough ones, but the B2B byes could make South Carolina a bit harder than it should be. Even the LSU game comes off a bye. If Lane Kiffin wants to keep the momentum going, this is the year to do so.

The Lane Train road that pitiful schedule to an 11-win year in Oxford, so mission accomplished. This year, it’s almost as easy, honestly. There are zero teams coming off a bye, just two tough road opponents, and an average six bowl teams on the schedule. The Rebels were gutted by graduation and the NFL, but even in a rebuilding season, Ole Miss shouldn’t crack much of a sweat getting to nine wins or so. The two tough road games are exceedingly tough, though: Georgia and Oklahoma. But the other three quality teams all travel to Oxford: LSU, USCe, and Florida. Nine wins or bust here; this is one of the easiest schedules in a brutal conference.

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We’ll back back tomorrow with Part Two.

For now, chime in below.

Roll Tide