
The NCAA Softball Selection Committee generously gifted Alabama with Regional hosting duties. This year, they are seeded a program-low of No. 15. Opposite them is a Virginia Tech team who was ranked higher in all four polls, RPI, and KPI. Will the Hokies use that bit of disrespect to their advantage?
College softball RPI is based on a team’s strength of schedule. Three key factors that are used in the rankings are a team’s own winning percentage, opponents’ winning percentages, and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentages. All that said, it doesn’t make much sense that Virginia Tech’s #14 was higher than Alabama’s #19, but there it is.
On the season, the Crimson Tide played 34 games against 17 different NCAAT opponents including 11 seeded teams (out of the other 15). However, their RPI is lower because the Tide went 14-20 in those games.
The Hokies faced 11 NCAAT teams with only four of those being NCAA seeds, a total that includes Alabama. VT went 14-8 in those games, but only two wins came over seeded teams – Alabama with whom they split two games, and FSU who won the other two match-ups. The Tide was 14-18 against NCAAT teams but clearly had a more difficult schedule. In the end, winning the eye test over the maths is what helped them get where they are.
VIRGINIA TECH (41-11)
The best evaluation here might be what they did against each other. On Feb 21, the Tide hosted three teams in the annual Bama Bash in Tuscaloosa.
In the first game, Jocelyn Briski pitched a strong 4.0 innings. In her final frame of action trough no fault of her own, she gave up an unearned run. But the Hokies picked up that digit without benefit of a hit. Bama coach Patrick Murphy panicked and replaced her with Catelyn Riley to begin the 5th. That inning went okay but in the 6th, the first VT batter walked and the second doubled her in for what would be the winning run. In hindsight, Murphy probably should have been a little more patient with Briski. On the other side, Tech’s ace Emma Lemley threw a solid 5-hit complete game. Tech had only one more hit, but it was the decider.
After both teams beat up on cupcakes, they had a rematch in the Sunday finale and things went much different. This time, Lemley was shelled for five runs over the first 2.2 innings. Emma Mazzarone came in and did not do much better yielding 4 runs over the final 2.1 frames. Bama churned out ten singles and one double in the 9-1 run rule win. They also had five stolen bases. Briski started this one as well, and again Murphy brought an early hook replacing her after 4.2 and run given up. Riley got the last out and Bama walked it off in the bottom of the frame.
These two teams also faced off twice in 2024 (split) and twice in 2022 (two Bama wins) with all games played in Tuscaloosa. There should not be too many Hokies coming into Rhoads Stadium with wide-eyed awe.
BELMONT (40-14)
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament champions will be making their first NCAA Tournament appearance ever. They are led by MVC Pitcher of the Year Maya Johnson (24-4, 1.24 ERA), who Patrick Murphy will undoubtedly be giving a good long look for his roster next year. The highlights of her season have to be the 8 inning two-hitter she tossed at Arizona State and a near identical 8 inning performance at Purdue. The RS Junior has thrown a massive 197.0 innings and has a ridiculous 23 complete games in 29 starts. In the nation, only Texas Tech All-American NiJaree Canady (3.44) has a lower Hits Allowed Per Seven Innings average than Johnson (3.65). However, she is all alone on top of the D-I heap in strikeouts with 355 – 73 more than the next closest hurler. She is also No. 1 in Strikeouts Per Seven Innings at a mind-blowing 12.6 and Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio at a stratospheric 18.05, which is double the next closest pitcher at 9.92. Which leads to another category she is obviously tops in – Walks Allowed Per Seven Innings at 0.70.
This should be an interesting matchup since Alabama is rather proficient at walking and getting hit by pitches.
Belmont hits a rather blah .278 as a team but scores 4.9 rpg and don’t strikeout very much. We could see some low scoring games, should these two meet.
JACKSON STATE (29-23)
The best thing to say about the SWAC champs is that they steal a lot of bases – 2.84 per game to be exact. That is sixth best in the nation. Ka’Liyah Gipson has 50 swipes, second most in the nation (one ahead of Audrey Vandagriff). However, the Tigers probably do not face the best of catchers during the regular season.
The only Power team the Tigers have played is Washington who routed them twice. JSU also lost to ULM, Southern Miss, Memphis, and Hawaii twice. All of their wins came courteous of fellow HBCU’s or D-II schools.
Surprisingly, Alabama has only played this Mississippi school once, a 8-0 win in 2011.
ALABAMA (37-21)
This Regional may not be as easy as it first looked on paper. Va Tech is basically the 17 seed and very similar to the Tide. The prospects of facing Belmont’s ace is a scary one. She will assuredly get the nod versus the Hokies in Game 1.
It will be interesting to see who Murphy’s Gut® decides to start against JSU. There is no reason to send Briski out there. Would he risk using up Riley on Day 1? Would he go with a combo of the other three pitchers?
It is a double-elimination bracket, which means the eventual Regional winner will at minimum have to win three games in three days with a maximum of five wins necessary.
WEATHER
Fridays games should be okay with temps in the mid 80s. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Saturday morning but will hopefully be gone by first pitch. There could be scattered thunderstorms later in the day and on Sunday as well.
SCHEDULE
Friday:
- Game 1: Belmont vs. Virginia Tech, 2:30/3:30, ESPN+
- Game 2: Jackson State vs. Alabama, 5pm/6pm, ESPN+
Saturday:
- Game 3: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2, 11am/noon
- Game 4: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2, 1:30/2:30 (loser eliminated)
- Game 5: Winner Game 4 vs. Loser Game 3, 4pm/5pm (loser eliminated)
Sunday:
- Game 6: Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 5, 1pm/2pm
- Game 7 (if necessary): Rematch Game 6, 3:30/4:30
TV… ALLEGEDLY
The committee likes the Tuscaloosa Regional, but apparently ESPN does not. As of now, all games in this region will be relegated to ESPN+ streaming. Later games may move to a basic cable channel if they are more intriguing. Bama fans get Pam Ward calling the games with former Arizona Wildcat Jenny Dalton-Hill providing color commentary.
OTHERS TO WATCH
- Four-seed Arkansas stuck with Oklahoma State.
- Root for Texas Tech and Mississippi State to beat up on Washington.
- Duke and Georgia.
- Old PAC-12 rivals: Big Ten Oregon vs ACC Stanford.
Poll
Will Alabama win the Tuscaloosa Regional?
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63%
It will be a tough road, but they will do it.
(47 votes)
74 votes total
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