Giving Away Money: 2025 College Football Wins Totals — Part 2

We’re breaking down season wins totals on this Memorial Day weekend, giving our projections for the SEC, as well as select teams from poverty conferences. Obviously injuries and the like derail even the best laid plans, but here are our picks as we peer through the mirror, darkly.

If you missed Part One, follow the link below:

SEC

Oklahoma 6.5:
Our Call: Over. The Sooners won the lottery this year, outbidding everyone for the best quarterback in the transfer class. The defense rounded into form in Year Two, and it only gets better this season. The running game is physical. The OL is nasty. And the schedule, though difficult, is marginally more forgiving this time around. There are road trips to Knoxville, Columbia and Tuscaloosa, as well as the RRS. But the five tough home games are, at a minimum, winnable ones — LSU, Michigan, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mizzou. Will the Sooners compete for the SEC? No. But it’s not unrealistic to see them batting 5-3 against the core of their schedule, maybe even swinging a road upset somewhere. 7-5, perhaps 8-4.

Ole Miss: 8.5
Our Call: Under, but leaning toss-up. LMFK has overachieved relative to Ole Miss’s talent, but underachieved relative to expectations. This year, there’s less pressure — but a lot less talent. The backfield and WR corps are stacked, and while there’s a new QB, few do it as well as Kiffin back there. The concern is defense, that lost 8 starters, and a schedule that includes trips to Athens and Norman, visits by the Gators, Gamecocks, and Coonasses. Then the poison pill Egg Bowl, where OM has struggled against Clanga on the road. We’ll say 8-4, hesitantly, but 7-5 to 10-2 are on the table. True wildcard here.

South Carolina: 7.5
Our Call: A lot is expected out of Beamer this year after fielding one of last year’s darlings. The ‘Cocks won’t be sneaking up on anyone, and at least among the media literati, USCe is considered a playoff contender. Let’s tap our brakes there, however. There are some significant losses though on defense and in the backfield — and a schedule that is every bit as tough as last year’s. We know USC plays lights-out at home (Brice Williams is an exceptionally underrated place in terms of difficulty, especially at night), but they have to get by Alabama and Oklahoma there, and then face a road schedule that sees trips to Mizzou, Oxford, Aggieland, and Baton Rouge. That’s on top of visits by Clemson and Virginia Tech. As we saw last year, USC can beat playoff calibre teams and turn right around and lose to B-tier power conference squads. We’ll say it’s a step back this year. 7-5

Texas: 9.5
Our Call: Under. The ‘Horns are breaking in a new quarterback, in case you’ve not heard, lost their entire WR corps, and most of their front four. Few teams have purchased as much talent as the Horns have, but there’s absolutely no margin for error either — or for those iffy road games under Sarkisian — not with a slate that begins with a trip to Columbus, true road trips to Georgia and Florida, the RRS vs. Oklahoma, and a visit by the perpetually disappointing Aggies. That’s a tall task for a team that has been plagued by near misses away from Austin. 8-4 is possible. But so is 12-0. We think, though, that the road is no place to learn for new quarterbacks, no matter how gifted or long they may have been in the program (ahem). And for the love of god, I can think of few places I’d rather break in a new signal caller than the Horseshoe — perhaps the only team that has purchased more talent. So, 9-3 it is. When people ask “what’s wrong with Texas,” the answer is “Nothing. They just faced some tougher opponents.” But if UT wins the OSU contest, then we know the sky is limit for a talented team with a lot of questions.

Texas A&M: 8.5
Our Call: C’mon, now. We all know that four losses are predestined for A&M. It doesn’t matter how talented (and this team has a ton of question marks on offense and losses on defense), how easy or difficult the schedule may be, what kind of scheme they run, nor the conference. Last year’s group finished 8-5, but it was a very fraudulent eight wins, and I just don’t see that A&M has gotten appreciably better offensively, not with Marcel Reed under center, nor a lot tougher. The latter should scare Ags more than the former too. As for the schedule? Trips to Baton Rouge, Notre Dame, and Mizzou, with home visits by USCe, Texas, Florida, and Auburn. They can lose every single one of those. Nothing from 5-7 to 8-4 should shock you. So, we’re going with 8-4, in accordance to prophecy. Under.

Tennessee: 8.5
Our Call: Over. The Vawls are another big spender, but they have a locker room problem with paycheck-first guys. Nico may be gone, but the rot remains: Recall, many of these guys famously tried to sit-out the playoff game without extorting a few extra bucks from UT. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving “school” either. More relevantly, last year’s team was propped up by the nation’s best running back, a cozy home schedule, and one of the best front sevens in the country. This year, the Vawls draw a few tough games on the road, the defense was decimated, and there are two key losses on the OL. Still, it’ll be a quality squad, it just won’t be one in the playoff hunt. We see three losses among @ Alabama, @ Florida, vs Georgia, N Syracuse, and vs Oklahoma. Over, barely. 9-3.

Vanderbilt: 3.5
Our Call: Over, but it won’t be easy. The ‘Dores were a darling last year, and they’ll be marginally more talented this season. But the schedule is just too tough to expect more than half a dozen wins. Check this out. Trips to: Blacksburg, Tuscaloosa, South Carolina, Austin, Knoxville. Home visits by Auburn, Mizzou, LSU. They’ll score an upset here and there. But it’s going to be damned hard to even make a bowl. So, we’ll say 5-7, but bowl-bound on the back of their APR.

National Teams

Ohio State: 10.5
Our Call: Under. OSU has talent; the Buckeyes always will. But the defense was decimated by the NFL. Half of the OL and backfield are gone, including a senior QB — worse on that count, there weren’t many inspiring options under center during Spring. There also was turnover in the coaching staff, where it will be felt most acutely on a rebuilding defense. Lot of individual talent for sure, but there’s a schedule that sees OSU host Texas, Illinois and Penn State, while traveling to Michigan, Madison and perhaps the worst trap game in the country: Seattle. Going 4-2 over that stretch would be earning paychecks, and we think that’s about right. 10-2, solid playoff contender.

Oregon: 10.5
Our Call: Under. Dillon Gabriel may be a system QB, but UO would kill to have him back, after missing out on the QB lotteries this year. Last season, the Ducks had no competitive games outside of Eugene. This year, while there’s not much heavy lifting, what is there is very tough for a team that doesn’t like to face power running — Iowa and Penn State on the road. Throw in a visit by USC, a trip to an archrival that has owned them, and deep losses on the defensive line, and really overall: the Ducks sent 10 guys to the NFL. That’s a significant step back for a team that will be in the playoff and B1G mix, but will take some knocks here and there. 10-2, likely staring down the Buckeyes in the BIGCG

Notre Dame: 10.5
Our Call: Parity hits everyone hard, that’s going to be particularly true in South Bend, which lost half of their defense to the NFL (and 75% of the secondary), and a veteran QB. Jeremiyah Love returns, and the kid is a pleasure to watch RTDB, but the secondary helped float this team last year. Talent is on the roster, experience is not. The secondary is especially a concern, when they travel to Miami to open the season. In fact, four of the first five are trap games, and there are some sneaky-tough games lurking late, including a visit to Chestnut Hill vs. rival BC, and a visit by the ‘Cuse. We’ll say the learning curve hits early here. 9-3.

Clemson: -9.5
Our Call: What you think of the Tigers this year will hinge on your feelings about Cade Klubnik…and the road schedule. There is a quartet of (likely) tougher home games (Syracuse, SMU, FSU, and LSU). Can they run the table there? Clem needs to, because the road has tricky trips to Louisville, Georgia Tech, perhaps BC or UNC, and then the existential threat in Columbia against USCe. I’m not sold on this team, especially how they played against passing teams last season. SMU absolutely let Dabo get away with one. They’ll drop one or two of these, be stymied offensively in another loss, and get bullied in another. Still an ACC contender, because of course they are. But Auburn with a Lake was a solid 9-3 before Venables and that’s what they’re like after him. 9-3 for the Tigers.

Boise State: 9
Our Call: Over. I hope you enjoyed that fraud season, Broncos. Because you are about to get another one. The schedule has just one hard road game (Notre Dame), and the tougher conference games are on the Smurf Turf: Fresno State, Colorado State, UNLV. There is an interesting OOC vs. App State, but it’s both winnable and at home. 10-2, maybe 11-1, and we’re going to have to pretend this team is good…again.

Kansas State: 9.5
Our Call: Under. The B12 is, grading on the EMAW curve, a meat grinder for a team like K State that has to win with castoffs and three-star talent, for the most part. Coaching and development over talent. The bigger concern, however, is how poorly they’ve played OTR since my mancrush Klieman arrived. There’s no rest for the weary either, since KSU opens the season in Ames against rival ISU. They also face the Jayhawks in Lawrence, and head to Tucson, Salt Lake, and Waco. Every one of those games is a potential L. The Wildcats host TTU and what should be an improved UCF squad too. No way are they getting to 10 wins here. 8-4 seems closer to it.

ASU: 9
Our Call: It’s hard not to be impressed with the 35-year-old former Memphis OC. Like mentor Mike Norvell, he uses uptempo running with deep vertical shots to stress defenses. And in the defense-optional B12, that’s absolutely perfect. The Sun Devils did lose do-it-all utility RB Skateboo to the NFL, but the rest of the offense is loaded, and the schedule could hardly set up better. There are three harder road games to navigate (Baylor, ISU, Utah). But even winning one of those, and holding serve at home, gets the ‘Devils to 10 wins, likely the B12CG, and in the playoff discussion. Sounds about right too. 10-2.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Still just five bucks a month, which is cheaper than a dozen eggs. THANKS, OBUMMER!