Giving Away Money: Alabama v BYU Sweet 16 opening odds and point spread pick

Quick shout-out to FanDuel for helping us keep the lights on, as they are sponsoring this post. All odds courtesy of FanDuel, and if you’re going to spend that egg money you’ve been saving, it may as well be for something you enjoy. (Me, personally, I’m saving up these winnings for a Marshall JCM 800 Modified 100w tube head).

Per FanDuel, Alabama enters this game as a slight favorite, at -3.5 (-110). But is that fair? Let’s find out and make a prediction, shall we?

Few power conference teams have played as well down the stretch as the BYU Cougars. After a change of conferences last season, then a change of coaches this year, there’s not been much continuity in Provo, until now, with first-year head man Kevin Young. As is the growing trend in college ball, the NBA game is trickling down to the NCAA, and with it brings the pros wide-open offensive systems. Nate Oats is by no means alone in embracing the modern NBA game. Young’s entire CV was forged in the majors, as well.

And the system he has brought with him has caught far too many teams in the motion-oriented Big 12 off guard. We’ll dive into this a bit more when we have our game preview, but this is generally a favorable matchup for the Tide.

The Cougars are not a tempo team, but they are an excellent scoring one. Falling somewhere between the four-out and the five-out, Young has brought with him his mentor Monty Williams’ “point-five” offense, which falls somewhere in between those two formations. But Alabama not only runs such a system, a majority of the SEC does as well, and at all sorts of tempo — Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, etc. The Tide also saw it when they played Creighton, Illinois, and others. There’s nothing new here that will catch ‘Bama by surprise.

Alabama likewise matches up well with the Cougars in the post. BYU is a great rebounding team, but they are a bit undersized in the paint. Their backcourt is towering, for sure, and the Cougs get after the glass at every spot, but Alabama’s quartet of Bigs showed vs. the larger St Mary’s Gaels that they can control the boards and thus the pace of the game when they put forth team effort. When BYU has lost games, on all-but one occasion they were simply pummeled on the glass. Alabama is capable of doing that.

The Cougars are a similar perimeter-and-rim oriented team, with two great shooters and two well-above average ones. However, the Tide have one of the nation’s best three-point defenses. Expect BYU to get their share of deep balls, but they probably won’t feast on Alabama as they have many other squads.

The best matchup, however, is apt to be the one that is dispositive. BYU looks much like Alabama did last year: High flying offensive team with a positively miserable defense. Sitting at 71st, the Cougars are far and away the worst team remaining in the tournament on that side of the ball. Facing one of the nation’s best offenses with the tourney’s worst defense is not generally conducive to advancing. The three-point shot disguises a lot of sins, but it can’t hide from a team that has every bit the firepower of BYU, and then some.

If you’d like a (not-so-charitable) comparison? Great Value Kentucky, with an even worse defense and and slightly worse shooters.

Alabama is a -3.5 point favorite, and that actually is a bit low, if the offensive-modeled data are to be believed (and you should always trust the data).

Our call: Alabama -8.26
Alabama 92
BYU 84

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