Quick shout-out to FanDuel for helping us keep the lights on, as they are sponsoring this post. All odds courtesy of FanDuel. And if you’re going to go full bread-and-circus in our imploding post-capitalist Western world, you may as well have nihilistic fun on the way out the door, and into the dustbin of history!
Per FanDuel, Alabama enters this game as a handy-but-not-overwhelmed underdog, at +7 (-110).
But is that fair? Let’s find out and make a prediction, shall we? We were 4-for-4 last night, and have bagged almost 70% of our NCAA and NIT picks. (Marshall JCM 800, here I come).
We knew — indeed, hoped — it would come down to this: No. 1 v. No. 2 in the East, as the Crimson Tide advanced to the Elite 8 mostly unscuffed. The only thing that has really been able to slow down the lethal Crimson Tide offense has been themselves. Meanwhile, the Regional top-seed Duke Blue Devils are the overwhelming tournament favorite, and have been even more impressive in dispatching their outmatched opponents. Yes, the Devils drew a bit easier path, but they way they’re playing at all three levels, it would not have mattered too much.
We’ll go into the Xs and Os later today in our game preview, but this game stands to be a bit closer than most imagine. It is also probably going to be the shootout that did not materialize versus BYU, and that is apt to favor the underdogs here.
Why? Well, against ranked teams, Duke is a terrible cover…without much experience facing elite competition. They’ve played just five such games all season, and tote a terrible 2-3 (40%) record ATS. They’re underperforming by almost 2.5 PPG versus the expected spread. Alabama, however, has been remarkably impressive in its games against quality teams. The Tide have played an ungodly 18 contests against Top 25 teams, and are 12-6 (67%) against the number. And, unlike the Devils, the Tide is overperforming its number by about 2.5 PPG.
As an underdog, the Tide have been even better, 6-2 versus the spread (75%). In a sport where the underdog covers or pushes just about 53% of the time, that is well-above happenstance. Duke has not been a terrible favorite, but they’ve not been a lock either, hitting the margin just 63% of the time. At neutral sites, the Devils are sub-.500 ATS (4-5), while Alabama’s performance is the inverse of that, at 5-4. And both teams come into the battle for Indianapolis at 2-1 vs. the NCAA field. In their last half dozen, the Tide is 4-2 while Duke is just at .500.
Trends do favor the Tide, despite some of the eye-popping stats that the Blue Devils have rang up. But, Alabama is certainly no slouch either. We’ll discuss the reasons why in the upcoming preview. While Duke is a deserved favorite, they are not insurmountably so by the numbers. Covering high single digits may be too much of an ask for the Devils.
Our call: Alabama +7
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