Half a dozen of the best underdog bets of the NCAA Tournament opening round

Saturday and Sunday were fairly awesome, going 13-5; and, last night the Power of Math ™ banged us out to a 5-2 midweek slaughter of The Man. I’ll take a 73% week any day, in a sport where favorites cover about 46% of the time.

For a hopeful encore, we’re going to choose the best underdogs of the 2025 NCAA Tournament First Round. As usual, we extend a shout-out to FanDuel, who have helped us keep the lights on by sponsoring this site.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel, and if you’re going to spend that egg money you’ve been saving, it may as well be for something you enjoy.

In addition, FanDuel is offering a Dog of the Day Jackpot:

What is it?

• Bet the lowest seeded team to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!

Timing

• 3/20 – 3/23
• This will occur every day of the first weekend of the tournament
• Daily promotion (4x total, 1x each day – Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
• Marketing for this promotion will begin on 3/17 with first occurrence on 3/20

How to Play

1. Download or Log In to FanDuel Sportsbook with new or existing account
2. Claim your “Sweepstakes” token
3. Place a Pre-Live, Straight, Moneyline wager on any qualifying Men’s NCAA Tournament games for the day (utilize token)
4. Bet the lowest seeded team (higher number: 16, 15, 14, etc) to advance that day and win a share of $1M in bonus bets!

• Lowest seed = Higher number (16, 15, 14, 13, etc.)

Let’s get down to brass tacks (unless brass is under tariff too, in which case use Taco Bell sauce packets or something).

• George Mason -7.5 v Samford: Mason is built to compete in the A-10. That means a stout interior defense, bangers in the post, mid-paced motion offenses, and — for most teams — the ability to clamp down on shooters. George Mason fits the bill as to 75% of these Ur-Atlantic 10 traits. The outlier? Their ghastly perimeter defense. Their opponent, the scrappy Samford Bulldogs shoot the air out of the ball, rebound exceptionally well, run with reckless abandon and can even win this one outright if they don’t let Mason dictate the style of play. Yes, this is an NIT game; no, I don’t care. If Samford shoots well, they can certainly cover, and may even get the Dub. Tough true road game, however. George Mason -3.48
• Grand Canyon +11.5 v Maryland: GCU runs the floor well, begs for free throws, and rebounds very well. That’s enough to keep them in close games. This year, they’ve also added tempo the mix. Meanwhile, Maryland thrived in the Big 10 by being one of its few speedy teams (though, in some fairness, the league is getting a bit faster). Still, GCU’s experience running this same system and their far superior height, means that the Terps’ best advantages have been neutralized. At a minimum, this Ponzi scheme masquerading as a university won’t be caught off-guard by a tempo game that flummoxes much of the B1G. It’s a good matchup for the far larger GCU ‘Lopes, who sports a front court with transfers from TCU and Kansas that can body up Derik Queen. Even if GCU probably lacks the talent to win outright, the Terps had issues with the B1G’s more physical teams. And Grand Canyon can goon it up with the best of them at all five spots on the floor. GCU +10.08
• St Joseph’s +5.5 v UAB: Few teams were as hot in the AAC down the stretch as the Blazers. Their downfall, their rival in all things athletic and culinary, the Memphis Tigers swept them, however — and that will certainly result in the Tigers increasingly becoming the bête noire for Blaze. (Which seems fair, since I frequently call Birmingham “Memphis without the fun stuff.”) One of those teams that was as hot as the Blazers were the Hawks of St. Joe’s. It was a subdued year for the A10, with the somewhat underachievement of the Flyers. But there was quality to be had here — Mason, GW, VCU, Dayton, La Salle and yes St. Joseph’s. This is a tough matchup for UAB too. St. Joe’s has a stellar floor defense, a stellar perimeter defense, they shoot the three very well, and they play lockdown without sending shooters to the stripe. They probably are out-athlete’d here, and could even lose. But they have punched well outside their weight class all season: they beat Texas Tech, pasted Va. Tech by 20, upended ‘Nova, etc. SJU can win this game. But, we’ll settle for the underdog cover — and yes, it’s another NIT game. St. Joe’s +2.89
• UGA -6.5 v Gonzaga — You have to love Georgia’s athleticism. You have to loathe Mike White’s tournament flameouts, the ‘Dawgs turnover-prone backcourt, how they’ve matched up against elite offenses, and in particular Georgia’s road play. Gonzaga is playing well at the right time, and they simply have too many weapons. In the battle of Bulldogs vs. ‘Dawgs, take the Jesuits from Spokane…at least to cover. The ‘Zags are that rare midmajor with a Power 4-worthy OOC schedule (SOS 25). They won’t wilt here. UGA -4.69
• Clemson -7.5 v McNeese State — I suspect this game is going to make Vegas a lot of money based on name brands, rather than how obnoxiously competitive Strong Ass Offer’s team actually plays. I like Clemson; I really do They’re one of the few ACC teams that I think is legit. But McNeese is just so solid across the board in almost everything they do. The Tigers will probably win this on the interior, but the Cowboys have kept almost every one of their major conference opponents within single digits (their median loss is around 6-8 points). And, weirdly, that’s about what the numbers like here too. If Will Wade is focused on this game instead of his next job (think: West Virginia), McNeese can cover this one. Clemson -6.20
• Oklahoma +5 v UConn — The Sooners’ tempo, perimeter shooting, superior scoring guards, and vastly underrated defensive improvement can get a W for them…if they can keep the Huskies off the glass, or at least win their share on the boards. UConn was positively woeful stepping out of conference play this year. And while the Sooners had a gentle OOC schedule for the SEC, they just spent 20 games duking it out in the toughest league in the country. Ignore that record too — the Dirt Burglars lost half a dozen SEC games by a total of 14 points. They were closer to Alabama and Tennessee record-wise than the bottom third where they landed. An outright upset wouldn’t be ridiculous to envisage. Oklahoma +2.54

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