Happy Gump Day: Alabama Football is popping off with its official visits

Happy Gump Day, one and all. Bet you think there’s not enough news out there. But you’d be wrong; let us dig in.

Our first inquiry is whether ‘Bama has decent odds to make the playoffs?

Alabama football has not played a snap in 2025. But, according to one metric, the Crimson Tide has the fourth-best odds of any college football team to reach the College Football Playoff.

Alabama, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index, has a 66.2% chance to be one of the 12 teams in the 2025 CFP, sitting behind only Texas (83.9%), Georgia (78.6%) and Ohio State (70.6%).

The Crimson Tide is also one of four teams with better than 10% odds to win a national championship along with the Longhorns, Bulldogs and Buckeyes.

Power Polls do take into account performance factors, returning players, and the like. But they are not prospective in that they do not look forward to the schedule as a whole, rather it is “Can Alabama beat Team A. Can Alabama beat Team B,” etc. So it doesn’t look to factors like “Does Alabama have a tough game the week before while its opponent has a bye week” (as happens with Oklahoma this year). But as a cumulative analysis, this seems to still check out. It’s not unfair to say that, even given the brutal path Alabama faces, 10% is not too bad a chance to make the playoffs.

Most Gumps would suggest that’s probably still too low.

That’s reflected as well in the odds to make the SECCG, where the Tide are sitting third at 33%, just behind Texas and UGA. That seems fair to me too. Texas has the talent (probably), Georgia has the schedule (but one huge enigma mark under center), while Alabama is probably returning the most, while also having the most open questions. For now, though, the consensus seems to be settling in that the SEC this year is: Texas, Georgia, Alabama. That order.

Of course since the Tide have the toughest road and the most answers to find, that means its floor is also a bit lower. But the ceiling is every bit lofty enough to be a title contender too.

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It’s the offseason, so we need to have some stupidity. Let’s begin with Hollywood throwing shade at Vanderbilt, when asked whether Alabama would be seeking revenge this season.

Vandy’s star QB, Diego Pavia, clapped back at Williams, in essence calling Alabama soft — they wouldn’t even shake hands last season after being upset by the ‘Dores.

We’re not going to rehash Diego’s allegations against the Tide. I would suggest that he has the better case here: Alabama did show its ass last year in Nashville, and there were far too many players on that squad who were allowed to pout, meltdown, and generally act like spoiled children. The Tide was soft.

Ryan Williams is dismissive of Vandy, and probably for good reason. Alabama does have far greater aspirations. But while that may be true, it’s probably not something you should say aloud either. You keep that one in your heart, not taped to the Commodore locker room. Because better team ball, better leadership, better bounces, and better coaching adjustments can still get you beat in the SEC. It did last season. I don’t care how many video games you’ve made the cover of, either. Vandy won that game, and regaining your pride is only going to happen on the field, not on a podcast.

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We have truly, finally made it to Basketball School status — Daniel Moore is making paintings for hoops.

Soon, we can all own this magnum opus of Gumpery

Speaking of hoops: After Labaron announced his return, Alabama has seen its odds narrow to 33/1 to cut down the nets at the end of the year (instead of 55/1), and has vaulted 10 spots in the CBS rankings, jumping into the middle teens. #PhilonEffect

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While it has been quiet with Alabama football’s media appearances, the recruiting season is red-hot at the moment as this opens the first week of Official Visits. And the Tide started strong, hosting a trio of the nation’s very best wide receivers this past week — and is on the inside track for two of them.

Perhaps more exciting new is that five-star, edge Nolan Wilson has proclaimed that Alabama is the team to beat.

The 6’4, 245 defensive end from D’Iberville is rated the No. 3 rusher in his class. And, man, he’s one helluva load.

To poach a 5-star from LSU’s backyard would be huge. To get an impact defensive linemen would be even better. It is an area where the Tide has noticeably lagged in production of late (though, I do expect that LT Overton is going to go off this year, and Jah-Marien Latham could surprise people as well). Wilson is about as solid as it gets too. This was his fourth trip, he’s been steady from the jump.

Going into Week 2, here are the Tide’s expected visitors (many of them already committed), as well as where they’re leaning (for now). If last weekend was about skills players, this week is about bolstering the defense:

Summer official visit season got rolling in a big way for Alabama with 14 total guests on campus over the weekend and the next big group set to be in Tuscaloosa (Ala.) from June 6-8 should be no different.

A trio of commits in the 2026 class will be making important returns, including five-star No. 1 cornerback Jorden Edmonds (Marietta, GA). Two more top-32 overall defenders, No. 1 LB Xavier Griffin (Gainesville, GA) and No. 3 S Jireh Edwards (Upper Marlboro, MD), are expected as well as a top quarterback to know and several others.

The real prize of the defense will be snagging five-star Jett Washington out of Bishop Gorman. Fortunately, the staff has good ties to the West generally, and BG specifically. Bray Hubbard is going to have an excellent season and make some money along the way. What comes next is an open question: this defense only runs well with the benefit of an elite FS.

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I very much believe Tommy Tuberville is going to be the next Governor of Alabama. He raised $2 million on Day One, has the name recognition, and also has a head start. So, the question arises for athletics in the state, “does that bring Alabama closer to a lottery and / or digital sports wagering?” We’re still the only SEC state without access to them.

Predictably, Tuberville said he wouldn’t step in, but given that every single competitor’s college program is deriving direct revenue from the taxes on gambling, in turn benefiting their recruiting efforts, don’t expect that to last.

Because as of today, I’d almost bet my life on these things: 1. Tubs is going to have a lot of monied interests quietly backing him into office, 2. It is an office that he will win given a vast cash advantage and proximity to Trump (as well as the state’s thralldom to the latter. Don’t overlook a direct endorsement either), 3. Athletic insiders are going to be in his ear from Day One, urging him to schedule a plebiscite on the issue (a proposal which Kay Ivey has backed and has already set the State on the course of), 4. Despite what he says now, Tubs will actually get involved when Yella’ Wood, DraftKings, et al come calling with some Uncle Sugar, and then he put his thumb on the scale, citing a competitive disadvantage, and 5. Given the liberalized nature of betting in the US now, some form of legalized gambling will finally be permissible in the state (though the contours are uncertain for now). I think Ralph Reed and the Choctaw (hiding behind the Church folks) are finally losing this round.

Sometimes, politics are intertwined with sports. This is one of those instances…Or it will be very soon.

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And, finally, I give you an inside look at Tennessee Man (and woman).

I have an uncle who was a literal ditch digger and drank himself to death one July 4th. One of my relatives was a camp prostitute in a company mining town. I have a relative who killed The Law after he stumbled onto his still in a cave in Southwest Virginia. I have cousins who wrassle in county fairs with confederate flag lucha masks. I have grown and picked tobacco. I know what possum, racoon and bear tastes like. For three years, I ate a chicken back once a week, but otherwise lived off cornbread, buttermilk, garden vegetables, and whatever we could kill.

And we still weren’t this hillbilly.
What a hive of scum and villainy. It’s like “Bumfights” but on Oxycontin. And, of course, it’s in Knoxville.

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Have a great day and Roll Tide