Alabama continues its effort to navigate the nation’s toughest schedule tonight as they go on the road to face 15th ranked Missouri.
Not much was expected from head coach Dennis Gates’ Tigers this season following a disastrous 2023-24 campaign that saw them drop all of their 19 total SEC contests including a round one exit in Nashville. In the transfer portal era, however, teams can be revamped quickly, and Gates was able to do just that.
Mizzou addressed the frontcourt with F Mark Mitchell from Duke and C Josh Gray from South Carolina, and both have made substantial contributions. Mitchell has started all 25 games, averaging 12.9 points with 4.7 rebounds and right at one blocked shot per contest. Gray doesn’t fill up the stat sheet but is a massive space eater on defense at 6’11, 255.
The returning guards have been the real catalyst for the resurgence, however. If Alabama is to win tonight, they will need to contain Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill. Each averages about 13 points and both can light it up from three. Bates has shot 39% on the season on 4 tries a game while Grill, himself a transfer from Iowa State in the 2023 offseason who missed most of last season injured, leads the SEC at an absurd 46.7% on six shots. Needless to say, the Tide will need to know where these two gentlemen are at all times.
Mizzou isn’t a slow, plodding team but they don’t love to play at Alabama’s breakneck pace, either. They are right at the D1 median in possessions per game, about eight fewer than Alabama’s 78 which leads the nation. Even with the offseason additions they are not an exceptional rebounding team, and have been susceptible all season to teams crashing the offensive glass. This offers Alabama some hope in the event the threes aren’t falling, as the Tide are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation.
How to Watch
The game will tip off at 8pm CT, televised on SEC Network
Prediction
If Nate Oats is indeed without the services of Cliff Omoruyi tonight, this one becomes even more difficult. It will be interesting to see if that results in Grant Nelson moving back down to center, or if Aiden Sherrell would follow up a DNP with his first career start. Alabama can’t afford to allow Mizzou to get offensive rebounds that can turn into open catch and shoot chances for Bates and Grill.
On the offensive side, Alabama has proven that it can win even if outside shots don’t fall as well as they’d hope, but it’s much prettier when they do. Last week showed the full range of possibilities as the Tide burned up the nets in Austin then couldn’t throw it into the ocean at home against Auburn. If Alabama can shoot at least its SEC average of 37% on decent volume, they could win somewhat comfortably.
Of course, how the team responds to what had to be a frustrating loss will be critical as well. Oats seems to be pleased with what he has seen in practice, but we won’t know for certain until we see them in action. The crowd is going to be electric and Mizzou is a hungry team looking for a signature win.
This Alabama team has been outstanding on the road this season, and it is in fact Gump Day. We’re going to predict that they come out laser focused and ready to wash away the bad taste from Saturday, and the threes fall well enough.
But it ain’t going to be easy. Let’s call it Alabama 92, Mizzou 84
Consider this your game thread for the evening as well.
Roll Tide.
