SEC SOFTBALL TOURNAMENT: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn War Eagles

I am going to resist the urge to call this the I— B— of Softball. That is because in my #GOML mind, there is only one Iron Bowl and it’s played in Bryant-Denny or Jerdin’s Hair. Even so, this game is very reminiscent of the traditional football Iron Bowl in that Alabama has a lot to play for. Auburn has a little less to play for, but ruining Alabama’s scenario is probably more important to them.

Aubie needs SECT wins to get into the NCAAT. Their overall record of 32-21 is okay and they have a few solid OOC victories to impress the NCAA Committee. But their conference record of 6-18 is pretty awful. However, their RPI is 16. The problem for the Tigs is that softball has changed. It’s not just the SEC and former Pac-12 teams that are leading the way. The ACC has a good deal of teams worthy of at-large bids. A few pre-2024 Big Ten teams are rapidly improving. And then there are some of the non-Power teams like Liberty, FAU. and San Diego State that are getting noticed. In years past, Auburn probably would have coasted into the NCAAT. Right now, they are a bubble.

For Alabama, the circumstances have been well-covered by RBR. The Tide is already a lock to make the NCAAT, but they are fighting for one of the cherished Top 16 Regional hosting slots. The NCAA wants nothing more than to gift Bama with one of those spots. But it might take some convincing.

ACCOLADES & RANKINGS

Team29 went the whole regular season with only one SEC honor: a sole SEC Freshmen of the Week Award for Audrey Vandagriff. Had the Tide won the SC series, Marlie Giles might have gotten a nod.

POLLS

• Softball America 22 ↓ 23 ↑ 18 ↑ 14 ↑ 13 ↓ 15
• D1Softball 24 ↔ 24 ↑ 19 ↑ 18 ↔ 18 ↓ 20
• USAToday/NFCA 24 ↑ 23 ↑ 22 ↑ 20 ↑ 19 ↓ 20
• ESPN/USA Softball 23 ↑ 22 ↑ 17 ↑ 15 ↑ 14 ↓ 16 (ESPN wants this SO bad.)

Aubie is unranked.

Alabama’s RPI dropped from #15 to 17 to #18.

SCHEDULE

Tuesday, May 6 vs Auburn – Barring extra innings or weather issues, Game 3 should start around 6pm/7pm.

HOW TO WATCH… ALLEGEDLY

The first three rounds will air on the SECNetwork with (ugh) Beth Mowins, Michele Smith, and Holly Rowe.

ATHENS, GA WEATHER

UGA is the tournament host. Skies should be clear, temperatures in the 70s. The sun will likely set around the end of the game.

AUBIE (32-21, 6-18 SEC)

Because of the two new teams in the conference, schedules were altered to Alabama not playing their rivals Auburn and Tennessee this season. Thus, they have not seen the Tigers this spring. The worst thing that could have happened to Auburn was Bri Ellis transferring out. The War Eagles have had a pretty poor season without her.

Things started out promising for the War Tiger Plains Eagles. They went 6-0 in Clearwater with wins over six solid teams: Clemson, Virginia, UCF, Charlotte, Oklahoma State, and Liberty. Then in the next game, they fell to Louisiana Tech in Huntsville. Then the Plain Women won nine in a row against a less impressive field. Auburn was sitting pretty at 20-1 and a No. 17 ranking. But things turned ugly once conference play began. Three straight sweeps put them in a 0-9 SEC hole. It wasn’t until April when Aubie found a conference win against Kentucky. They took two of three from the ‘Cats and Georgia before getting swept by the Vols. The Warring Eagles closed out the season with two of three wins over South Carolina at home, followed by two W’s versus a lousy NC State team (25-29).

THROW THE BALL

The bad news for the Tide is that Auburn has one good pitcher right now and she has been cooking that last two weeks. RS sophomore Savannah “SJ” Geurin spent her first two years of college on the bullpen pine in Norman, Oklahoma. In her first year playing in west Georgia, she has become the workhorse. Her ERA is 2.76 – which is much better than anyone else on that staff. She has thrown 159.2 of AU’s 353 innings, which is a little over 45%.

Another recent transfer is Haley Rainey who came in form Cal State-Fullerton. She has thrown over 100 innings but has been getting lit up as of late.

As a team, Auburn has the conference’s highest ERA of 3.97 – a whole run+ more than Bama’s. They have given up an SEC worst 200 runs and have the highest opponents’ batting average at .273. The Tigs also have the lowest number of strikeouts at 198. Florida, of all teams, is the next lowest at 232. Auburn’s pitchers record 0.56 strikeouts per innings pitched – a whole tenth lower than the next closest Gators. Bama is at 0.74 K per IP. Tennessee is tops in the league at 1.22.

Chances are, the Crimson Tide faces only Geurin, sink or swim.

HIT THE BALL

But enough about that horrific pitching. How about the hitting? Yeah, they suck too.

Auburn has five players with 9 or more homers but only three with batting averages over .275. Freshman AnnaLea Adams is hitting .407 with 9 HR and 36 RBI.

Team BA is .267 and on-base is .367. Only Mizzou has it lower in those two categories in the SEC. Only UK and Mizz score less runs per game. Slugging percentage for the Barn is an abysmal .450. Nobody is looking up at them on that stat. They are also last in double, triples and have the most strikeouts (305) and have grounded into the most double plays (18, five more than next closest).

CATCH THE BALL

Yup. They stink at this too. Fielding percentage is .963. Only Kentucky is worse.

TEN CENT ANALYSIS (time to get rich)

On paper, Bama should beat this team nine times out of ten. But there is always that one time. If the AU pitching is on, and Alabama’s pitching does their inconsistency thing, this could turn sideways. Don’t get caught looking ahead and Patrick Murphy better have a darn good pep talk.

My gut tells me Alabama scores early, probably has a semi-big inning, and then puts it in cruise control for a win. Something like 5-2.

SCORES

(# = seedings; We will update throughout the day)

#13 Kentucky vs #12 Georgia – noon/1pm

#14 Missouri vs #11 Ole Miss – 2:30/3:30-ish

#RollTide #Team29