Xs and Oats: ‘Bama gets its chance to avenge Senior Night’s bitter loss to the No. 3 Florida Gators

The last time these teams met, a mere 10 days ago, an exhausted and weary Tide team was facing its 6th straight ranked opponent, and mired in a 2-3 stretch on Senior Night. It was a back and forth game, on the scoresheet at least. But it was apparent early on — despite ‘Bama even grabbing a second-half lead — that Florida was the better team that night.

Ten days and two ranked wins for the Tide later, and Alabama now relishes the chance to exact revenge on the Gators, a team who ‘Bama also has to thank for its late-season inflection point and commitment to getting tougher.

After that loss, a player-led meeting generated a more resolved Crimson Tide. Alabama proceeded to go to the Plains and knock off No. 1 Auburn (which Florida had also done), and then for an encore handed No. 15 Kentucky their worst loss in SEC Tournament history last night.

But Florida also gained a measure of vengeance in the SECT, thoroughly pummeling a Missouri team who had dealt them their only home loss of the season. There are just four teams remaining in the SEC Tournament: the top four seeds, with at least two of them likely to get 1-seeds in the NCAAs. I still maintain that the winner of this game will likely join the Auburn Tigers as that other 1-line for the conference. (Barring something weird-but-just-as-equally probable, like Alabama losing a rematch to the Vols, which would probably give us the perverse reality of the SEC semifinal runners-up being one-seeds).

Can it be the Tide? Let’s see what they need to do to swing the barest of upsets here.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 5 Alabama (25-7, 14-5 3rd) No. 3 Florida (28-4, 15-4 2nd)

Spread: Florida -3.5

Opponent KenPom: 4th (3 offense, 9 defense, 62 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 4th (8 offense, 9 defense, 47 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 4th (5 offense, 13 defense, 65 tempo)
Opponent NET: 4 (8-4 Q1, 17-4 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 4
Opponent Best Win: @ Auburn (3)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Georgia (33)

UA Ken Pom: 6th (4 Off, 26 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 29 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (3 Off, 25 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (12-7 Q1, 20-7 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 2 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 26 (N) Oregon

What went wrong in ‘Bama’s 99-94 home loss? Perhaps we should begin by going to the preview for that game, when we warned of the Gators’ offense:

You have…to have enough beef on the blocks to limit the Gators to a one-shot possession. Teams like Tennessee are positioned to do that, so it’s no coincidence that they handed UF their worst loss of the year. Likewise, Georgia got the best of Florida by likewise winning their battles down low, while harassing Gata into one-and-done trips down the floor.

And while Florida is not a fast team, it will take quick shots if they spot a good look early into their possession. Like Auburn, they also generate a lot of their tempo from fast breaks off turnovers. It is a very challenging, 94-foot offense that is just as good scoring off mistakes as they are finding their own points.

* * *

For The Love Of God, Hit Your Free Throws — I hate to sound like a broken record here, but yes, this is another game that is going to be decided by a razor-thin margin.

Did Alabama do any of those things?

No. No they did not.

Alabama was positively murdered on the boards (50-35), allowing Florida 26 second-chance points and 50 of their 99 total in the paint. Alabama did not prevent the breakout, and got smoked by the Gators in break points, 22-10. Alabama also did not hit their free throws, having a third straight game shooting in the 60s.

To all of that mess, Mark Sears decided to take a third of the team’s total shots from the floor, and Alabama’s season-long bugaboo reared its ugly head: defending the pick and roll.

For Alabama to get the win this time around, it’s going to have to do a lot more things better than it did on that bitter Saturday afternoon — even marginally so.

• ‘Bama’s Bigs have to play a lot tougher — Alex Condon went apeshit on the Tide in Round One, notching a 27/10 night, largely on the back of uncontested PnR plays and easy putbacks. Cliff and Jarin and Aiden and Grant were simply miserable against the two Gator big men. Even assuming they will surrender entry passes to the post, the Tide’s bigs have to contest shots a lot better, and they have to put forth actual effort on the glass. Florida lives and dies by the offensive rebound. Alabama knew that going into the Tuscaloosa meeting, but were flat-footed most of the night. It was embarrassing. Alabama’s quartet don’t have to outplay Florida’s two interior nightmares, but they have to prevent Condon and Rueben Chenlyu from having another night with two dozen rebounds and almost 40 points.
• ‘Bama’s backcourt has to be a lot more careful with their passes — We’ve emphasized turnovers before. And, sure, they can be brutal by being converted into opposing buckets. But it’s especially crucial to be less cavalier with the ball when facing Gata’s guards: the other dangerous half of their offense was responsible for 1/4th of Florida’s points on March 5th — they turn upcourt off steals and then positively demoralize you with fastbreak buckets. Alabama can more readily win a game where neither team is breaking out than one where Florida gets 24 points off of break points. Florida isn’t a fast team per se, but they are a strategically fast one. They run when you are outnumbered, and the Tide simply cannot keep up with that. The easiest way to prevent it is by taking care of the basketball in the first place.
• Find some answers on the pick and roll — ‘Bama’s guards cheat to the lane, and it has murdered them all season at the hands of competent PnR teams. Florida was not the first team to maul the Tide using this staple play, Rutgers and UNC (among far too many others) victimized Alabama all night using little else. It’s not sexy, but what Alabama does on this end of the floor, 18 feet from the bucket, is going to determine who wins far more than who gets hot from the perimeter. They have to put in the work though.
• Play with confidence, play with tempo — Both teams are riding high. Florida, from their ruthless efficiency; ‘Bama with their renewed swagga’ and some dormant guys getting hot at the right time. When Alabama plays loose, plays with intensity on both ends, and plays like they expect to win, they do win. Florida is not appreciably better than the Tide are. And, if that game comes a month earlier. I’m not sure a less-tired ‘Bama team with their legs under them loses. Of course, we didn’t get to see that game. Instead, we got a depleted Tide squad just trying to hang on through the end of the season. But the second season is here, and as we saw last night, Alabama can shut down even elite offenses. They can do well by having fun and by forcing their speed on their opponent. Florida forced ‘Bama into their game in Tuscaloosa. Time to return the favor. Run every possession, not merely when Florida chooses to.
• And, yes, hit your free throws — The Gators are not a great FT shooting team. Lost in last night’s #BTA whopping of the Wildcats was that Alabama shot 80% from the stripe, their first good game in freebies in almost a month. Carry that over; it could decide the winner.

And the winner of this one, I firmly believe in my heart of hearts, is your final No. 1 seed. Deservedly. So, why not us?

How To Watch

ESPN, 2:30 Central, Saturday 15 March 25

Prediction

Perhaps there’s just too much ‘Bama in me, but Florida can be gotten by the right kind of team, one with a reliable perimeter game and that forces its style of play. The Gators have been bad enough to lose to Vandy, not just the great team that beat Alabama and Auburn on the road. They were better than Alabama for one day. That’s what we take away from it, I tell my guys. But if Alabama forces their game, and plays defense the way they play offense — with that enthusiasm — they will win.

I think Alabama gets it done…but it sure as hell won’t be easy. This is possibly the best team in America, rankings aside.

Now, which team am I referring to?

Call me a homer.

Alabama 93
Florida 90

Hope for the best,
Roll Tide.

Here’s your game thread. Sound off below