The SEC’s first-ever meeting of No. 1 vs. No. 2…and certainly No. 1 vs. No. 1
You don’t need much preamble for this one.
Two schools that loathe one another, two coaches that do not much care for one another, the highest ranked vs. ranked matchup in SEC history. College Gameday on campus. Kids ditching classes and sleeping on the lawn Tickets going for thousands in the lower bowl. Two of the best coaches in college ball. Two of its highest paid. Two standout recruiters.
The winner climbs over the corpse of the other to stake supremacy in the country’s most difficult conference.
And, for one night at least, the nation’s basketball fortunes run through the Heart of Dixie.
Tale of the Tape:
No. 1 / 2 Auburn vs. No. 1 / 2 Alabama
Spread: Disrespectful AF. ‘Bama +5.5 on their home floor. It’s dropping like a rock though — down to +1.5 at some books.
Opponent KenPom: 1 (1 offense, 17 defense, 131 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 3 (1 offense, 10 defense, 118 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 2 (1 offense, 15 defense, 125 tempo)
Opponent NET: 1 (ungodly 13-2 Q1, 16-2 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 1
Opponent Best Win: vs Houston (3)
Opponent Worst Loss: vs Florida (4)
UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (4 Off, 30 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 4th (3 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (8-3 Q1, 15-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 34 (N) Oregon
I’m not going to sugarcoat this one. Auburn is — until proven otherwise — the best team that Alabama will play all season, because — until proven otherwise — they are the best team in the nation.
You are what your record says you are: 13-2 vs. Q1 teams, DD wins over Iowa State and Houston on their own floors, absolutely smashed the Buckeyes in C’Bus, made Purdue look silly, gave Duke all they could handle in a close loss at Cameron, smothered the Vols, boast a 4-2 record vs. the KP Top 25. Most efficient offense in the country. Top 20 defense. Absolutely miserly with the basketball.
You have to give the devil their due. And the devil in this case is a group of previously-underachieving super seniors that have been superheated by outstanding freshman guard play: A team that can score at all three levels, and has a national player of the year in the post. The Tigers are elite perimeter defenders, outstanding at forcing turnovers, and the post has been very difficult to score in, with Broome and Cardwell swatting away 10 shots per night.
That said, the margin isn’t that vast.
Alabama has its own 5-2 record vs. the KP Top 25, has played much better on the road than the Tigers have, are No. 1 in conference efficiency. More importantly, ‘Bama appears to be peaking at the right time, they’re finally healthy, and they’re gaining confidence from the much harder SEC road slate they’ve faced and triumphed over. And while the Tide may not have the best starting five, it has a much deeper bench and thus a far superior next five. It leads the SEC in 3P% defense (31.4%) in conference games. It leads the SEC in assists per bucket (unreal 41.4% of all baskets are made off of the extra pass). ‘Bama leads the SEC in floor shooting (58.4%).
And, for all the ballyhooing about the terrible Tide defense, ‘Bama is 2nd in SEC floor shooting allowed — best in the SEC outside of Tennessee. The Tide is 2nd in 3PT shots as a % of offense allowed (behind only Auburn), gets to the line far more, and is much better at preventing FTAs against (3rd). In short, it has been a different team in conference play than the one that was routinely getting toasted in its brutal OOC schedule.
Auburn leads the conference in SEC game perimeter defense (28.8%), but they’ve also played the easier slate with more defensive teams (6th overall SOS for SEC games; Bama is 2nd). They’ve not even faced a pure tempo team like the Tide or Kentucky yet in SEC play. They’ve played a lot of squads who matchup very poorly with them, in short.
Alabama does not matchup poorly at all, and ‘Bama has more than a puncher’s chance in this game. They are, for all practical purposes, dead even. Some No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups are a bit illusory. This one is not.
What remains to be determined is who is actually No. 1. If ‘Bama wants to stake a claim to it, then they have to hold serve Saturday at home.
I didn’t actually cover the scheme fit this week. If you want to do some reading on that, I covered it in the preseason, when I explained why Holloway was a bad fit at the ‘Barn but would thrive with ‘Bama:
Bruce Pearl’s offense is similar in some ways to Nate Oats, in that they are both 4- and 5-out schemes, often positionless. But, whereas CNO has a baseline-driven system, Pearl’s version is a flex-motion from the top of the arc; it’s a two-man give-and-go game.
If you watch Pearl’s Xs and Os, you’ll see some familiar plays that Alabama also runs. But, in philosophy, it’s very different. That makes a world of difference too, because the two-man game simply does not free up perimeter shooters like Alabama’s offense does.
This season, Auburn isn’t running so many two-man looks, as they are moving more into their high-motion given-and-go offense, with a lot of screens above the key (look for Cardwell in particular to set a ton of moving picks) to set up pick-and-roll and free space for their great perimeter shooters, as teams focus on Broome.
You can see why spacing is much better in the ‘Bama offense, and where the systems differ over here:
Key Personnel
Is it cheating to say all of them, plus 6th Man sensational freshman Tahaad Pettiford and low-talent instigator Dylan Cardwell? Of course, with a roster that has ten seniors and super seniors, and super-senior graduate students averaging 25 years old, they should be good.
Shade aside, this is probably the best starting five in the country. They have a goon at true center, 6’11” Super Senior Dylan Cardwell. When Auburn goes big, they frequently have Cardwell and Broome on the floor at the same time. However, that is the extent of their size. ‘Bama’s frontcourt has them beat on length, and may be able to platoon their way to efficiency when Auburn’s bigs rest.
The offense obviously runs through Broome, who has been elite in floor shooting this year, rim defense, and is an excellent two-way rebounder. He is a less athletic, though more well-rounded version of Georgia’s Asa Newell. He is also giving up the ball to perimeter shooters more this season, and they’re making them count. Broome has cultivated a bit of a reputation as being a crybaby and a bit soft. And, he can disappear for stretches at a time, and even whole games. So frustrating him early and making Auburn’s backcourt beat you will be key to winning this one. At a minimum, the Tide must match Auburn’s rebounding intensity on misses, and not have Broome turn Tide possessions into one-and-done. Body-wise he’s not going to bully Cliff around, but Omoruyi and Sherrell and Grant are going to have to pack some extra snacks. It’s going to be a war in the paint.
The three starting guards, all seniors and super seniors, are just phenomenal shooters, especially from the perimeter and FT line. And they’re all tall AF: 6’4” to 6’6”. Two of them shoot near 90% at the stripe (as does Pettiford), and all three shoot between 37-41% from the three-point line. PG Chad Baker-Mazara in particular is a nasty piece of work, and has developed a reputation as a player who flops to draw fouls, particularly against on-ball defense. (But, they say the same of Mark too, so…) SG Miles Kelly is the closest thing to their volume shooter in a backcourt with fairly even ball distribution. Unfortunately, he’s also a 41% sniper back there. Denver Jones is the best pure shooter on the team (44% 3PA), but fortunately doesn’t take as many as Pettiford or Kelly. At the wing is forward Chaney Johnson, who plays a lot bigger than his 6’7”, is an active defender, and a remarkably efficient offensive player.
But, for my money, the nightmare fuel for this game is freshman Tahaad Pettiford. He does not start, but he’s second on the team in minutes logged, and is easily (to my reckoning) the best player on a team full of good players. He’s a 40.3% perimeter shooter, a 90% free throw shooter, the best on-ball defender in a scheme that is very face-up and aggressive, and even leads the team in assist rate at the 6th man spot. I don’t know that Alabama has anyone who matches up well with him, honestly. Perhaps Chris Youngblood, but that’s the only one you’d trust with this assignment.
The knacks on Tahaad’s play are fairly minor. He has been frustrated and shut down before. Not coincidentally, they’re almost always in road games, and then Auburn struggles. Like most freshmen his shot selection isn’t always the best, but it’s not Trey Johnson-terrible either. He’s also a fairly disinterested rebounder, and he won’t put your shot in the third row, but Pettiford doesn’t need to: he’ll pick your pocket instead.
This guy is almost certainly a one-and-done. And thank the Basketball Gods for that.
How To Watch
ESPN 3 Central, Saturday 15 Feb 25
Prediction
I don’t mean to glaze the ‘Barn here, but you must respect your foe. Auburn didn’t get here with smoke and mirrors. They got here with a lot of very veteran talent, an outstanding NBA-caliber freshman, great ball defense, and a rebounding machine POTY candidate on the inside. They got here with tempo when needed, and mudwrestling when they must. They can win a variety of ways, they play very chippy ‘ball, they cry and whine…and they shoot the absolute hell out of the ball.
It’s not going to be easy. But, the disparity isn’t that vast. And, for every Auburn weakness, you can scratch the paint and find an Alabama strength.
If Alabama plays great perimeter defense, and if they can just be marginally smarter with the ball, and if they can get to the free throw line, and if they can match or exceed Auburn’s shooting from the perimeter, the Tide can win. But they have to do all of those things, and they have to have a balanced complete effort from everyone, because Auburn is most certainly going to do likewise.
We’ll say that the Tide plays their most competitive game of the year, even if neither teams plays their best one, and after being disrespected for the past two months gets it done at home.
Alabama 91
Auburn 89
Hope for the best, and the loser gets to meltdown gloriously.
Roll Tide.
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