Xs and Oats: No. 3 Crimson Tide face Arkansas in Fayetteville, ‘Bama’s 80-year-long house of horrors

The SEC has some tough gyms. Like most squads, Alabama has had its share of struggles in the conference’s more notorious venues. The Tide has won about a third of their games all-time while visiting the likes of Tennessee, Florida and Vanderbilt. And Alabama’s struggles in Rupp are well-documented, with UA winning just 11 times in 68 meetings (16%).

But there is one destination that has been almost as bad a host to ‘Bama as the Wildcats, a basketball-crazed school tucked away in the mountains, with a raucous fanbase, and a team that plays out of their mind when ‘Bama comes to town — Arkansas. Fayetteville has been a veritable house of horrors for 80 years, with the Tide winning just 25% of the time on the road vs. Arkansas. Outside of Rupp, the Hogs have easily been ‘Bama’s most daunting road opponent, and the series domination began early too, back in 1948.

The teams met in Memphis and OKC for a few years, and it would take half a decade before ‘Bama would even notch their first win over the Hogs. It didn’t get better at home. When Arkansas finally traveled to Tuscaloosa they proceeded to win their next two in T-Town as well. Like Kentucky, ‘Bama has an all-time losing record against Arkansas, and is one of just two (old) SEC teams that can make that claim (we’re obviously not counting the infrequently-played noobs like Mizzou or Texas here — just “Establishment SEC”).

How bad has it been on the road for the Tide vs. the Piggies? Alabama didn’t get their first road win in the series until 1993. About half the time, they’ve not been close games either; Arkansas beats them like they stole something.

Since the two began meeting regularly following expansion, here is Arkansas’ home margin of victory vs. the Tide: 6, 21, 20, 11, 7, 15, 29, 8, 11, 2, 27, 4, 9, 12, 5, 7, 2, 9, 12 — average MOV: almost 11 points, including ‘Bama’s Elite 8 and Final 4 teams, inclusive of Anthony Grant mudwrestling. Nate Oats is faring little better: 1-2 in the Piggie Palace. He can even up his road record on Saturday.

However, to do that, ‘Bama will need to overcome the Silverback of the SEC — the cranky alpha gorilla who can still coach when he wants to, and is unafraid to throw haymakers. Ask Coach Oats about the last time he faced Cal. Alabama was down over 40 points in the second half vs. Kentucky, scored almost 100 points…and still lost by 27. Coach Cal has frankly dominated Oats’ team, and is one of the few tenured coaches in the SEC to have a winning record against him (5-3). Only Rick Barnes has performed as well or better in head-to-head matchups.

With a trio of Kentucky transfers, dynamic freshmen, and an absolutely filthy defensive style of play, there awaits a tall task for the Tide on Saturday, no matter what the records may suggest. History is not on our side, and perhaps for good reason.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 43 Arkansas (14-8, 3-6 14th) vs No. 3 Alabama (19-3, 8-1 2nd)

Spread: N/A, but KenPom has ‘Bama -4, and Vegas is usually within a point of that.

Opponent KenPom: 43 (81 offense, 28 defense, 86 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 58 (92 offense, 38 defense, 102 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 46 (92 offense, 31 defense, 84 tempo)
Opponent NET: 35 (2-6 Q1, 4-6 Q1/Q2); Q2 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 74
Opponent Best Win: vs Kansas (9)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ LSU (82)

UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 40 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 30 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 4th (3 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (6-3 Q1, 13-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 38 (N) Oregon

Can we take a moment to marvel at the schizoid Razorbacks?

This is a team that has a road win at No. 17 Michigan, upended No. 9 Kansas, and smacked around then-No. 11 Kentucky in Rupp. At the same time, it’s a team that lost by almost 20 to Missouri, got beat by a very average LSU team, nearly lost to 5-17 Miami (dead last in the ACC), and has struggled with the likes of UA-Little Rock.

It is a supremely talented team that plays up and down to their competition, and is wholly lacking in consistency from one game to the next.

But that’s exactly what makes them so dangerous on Saturday: Alabama is good, and so will get their best shot.

Listening to Kentucky fans, you’d think John Calipari is just a bagman with a checkbook, a schematic doofus who can get outcoached, who doesn’t play the right personnel, doesn’t adjust well, and doesn’t have his players ready for the game. A man from another time and place. But superannuated fools don’t log almost 900 wins over a 35-year career, with a .762 winning percentage, notch half a dozen final fours, and cut down the nets. He has relied on recruiting, sure. And he’s a bit shady. But the man is not a dummy and is one of the deans of the sport for a good reason.

Ask Mark Pope.

He doesn’t suck. I do think, however, that he just got bored. While the change in scenery in Fayetteville hasn’t resulted in setting the world on fire so far, his Hogs have chalked up a great trio of wins — and got another on the road last night in Austin — have embraced the tempo and perimeter game, and he still enjoys a significant talent advantage (and likely will maintain a recruiting edge) over most of the SEC.

So, what is that Arkansas does under Cal.

TL/DR version? His teams maul you in the post, they force a lot of turnovers, they transition to the break very well, and the guards iso you to death. His MO has been, and continues to be, devastating interior play. Arkansas is fourth in the SEC in lane scoring, with 52.5% of their points coming inside the paint. The secret sauce to the Hogs this year is that his squads are moving at a much faster pace, unleashing some of the raw athleticism on the roster, while still punishing the glass and the rim on both sides of the ball.

Despite what the hillcritters in Lexington will tell you, it’s not entirely new either. His change in approach began last season, in Kentucky. You can copy and paste this ‘graf from BB4 a year ago, and just change school names:

This team plays almost nothing like Cal’s ‘Cats from the rest of his tenure. He decided this year to play a more up-tempo, free-flowing style – you know, kind of like Nate Oats – after years of diminishing returns from his more 90’s-2000’s era style that he won big with for about a decade in Lexington. And it has unlocked the offense for sure – this is one of the best shooting teams in Kentucky history (2nd in the country at 40.5% from 3P%). But it’s taken some time for him and the team to finally adjust to how to play defense in the modern game. On the other hand, Cal has simultaneously gotten back to his roots on the recruiting trail.

Arkansas’ transfer class this season? Ranked 1st.
Arkansas recruiting class this year? Ranked 3rd.

And that’s exactly what we have this year, too. A free-flowing, tempo-based Arkansas squad with size stolen from the Wildcats, and an elite backcourt recruited out of NSD. Sadly, the most impactful ‘Hogs player, potential lottery PG Boogie Fland is done for the year with a lingering shoulder injury. With his absence, and his ability to go coast-to-coast, Arkansas’ tempo has cooled off significantly, as has their perimeter play. But the Hogs haven’t defaulted to the plodding two-man game of Wildcats gone by either.

Still, without an elite PG, this offense is firing on just four cylinders.

That’s because Cal runs what is known as “the Memphis attack” — it is a dribble-drive motion-oriented offense that puts a lot of responsibility on the point guard to find and distribute, as well as to take defenders off the dribble and go all the way to the rim.

For all the great big men that Calipari has had throughout his career, it is the point guard pedigree for which he will probably always be known and is the engine that drives that train: John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Marquis Teague, Andrew Harrison, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe, Tyler Herro…fifteen 5-star PGs just at Kentucky alone. And then he added Boogie at Arkansas.

Like all motion offenses, spacing is key here. But unlike other motion systems we’ve seen, Cal affords a lot more improvisation and one-on-one opportunities for his trigger man. There is a lot of hesitation on the dribble, but that is just to flat-foot defenders. Penetration and attacking the basket is almost always the first read. It is fair to call the Memphis Attack the RTDB of basketball: it’s very downhill. Mark Sears in particular is going to have to be on his Ps and Qs defensively, notwithstanding Fland’s absence. He’s going to get cooked off the dribble otherwise.

Defensively, you already know what you’re going to get from a John Calipari team: very physical man-up defense. Forearms in the back. Hard clear-outs. Quick poke-checks on the ball handler. Rapid transitions off of steals. It’s nothing ‘Bama hasn’t seen before, to be sure. But when you combine the Hogs excellent rebounding with their length and sudden commitment to tempo off the takeaway, this is a team that sets the tone with their defense. And with Fland sidelined, they have to.

Key Personnel

This is an exceptionally tall team, and a deep one. Not a single starting guard is under 6’4”. Their wingman and leading scorer, UK transfer Adou Theiro, stands 6’8”. In the post is the mismatch nightmare, the 7’2” Zvonimir Ivisicic — who is a fantastic rim defender and also shoots 42% from the perimeter. The PF spot is manned by a 6’11” monster, with another 6’11” freshman coming off the bench that can play both forward and center spots. And now we have to worry about FAU transfer SF/G Johnell Davis getting hot.

The obvious answer to who you want to stop is Theiro. He leads the Hogs in scoring (16.2), rebounding (6.2), steals, and is the best perimeter scorer among the starters (36.5%). It would be a very good time for Youngblood and Derrion to show out. This guy is a tough assignment. And god help us if Jarin draws this assignment.

But, it’s probably implausible to expect the Tide to shut out one of the focal points of the offense. So, instead we’ll turn to the newest guy that keeps me awake at night.

Johnell Davis has had a very Chris Youngblood sort of start to his Arkansas career. A coveted transfer from a small directional Florida school, he struggled early, particularly getting his shot down against much larger and faster defenders. But after Fland went down, Cal told him his number was up — it was time to grow up and become a centerpiece. To Davis’ credit, he has. Since Boogie went out, Davis has averaged 18 points a game, and not so coincidentally the Hogs have won three of their last four, including two road games. He’s a solid perimeter shooter, and very dangerous when he puts the ball on the floor. Even for an offense that prides itself on getting the basket, Davis has been attacking it with relish.

Davis is going to be almost as tough to guard as Theiro, and I’d wager that if Arkansas wins this game, it’s because Johnell has another big night. Stopping him would be my No. 1 defensive priority. Make the rest of the non-Boogie roster beat me.

How To Watch

This game has been moved to primetime, baby. 7 Central on ESPN. No pressure.

Prediction

We have yet another game where Alabama is going to have to bring a lunch pail. In the case of the Hogs, their offensive stats are somewhat misleading, as they include a stretch where Cal had not quite figured out what to do with Davis. With Johnell’s sudden surge, and Theiro at the swing, there is a formidable tandem of scorers that the Tide must contend with.

Hell, I’d argue that with practically an entirely new roster, major injuries throughout the year, and a new staff, that most of the Hogs metrics do them a disservice (though they’ve not helped themselves with their inconsistency either.)

For ‘Bama to win this game, they need a complete team effort and a complete game: a game in which they answer a lot of questions.

Can Alabama match the Hogs on the glass? Arkansas is in the Top 30% nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Can UA prevent turnovers against a very aggressive Arkansas backcourt? There will be plenty of fouls, can ‘Bama break out of their free throw shooting doldrums, in what is likely to be a close game? Can the Tide’s bigs defend the rim and match the Hogs physicality? Can the hot perimeter shooting hold up? Can Alabama mentally stand up to the most complete road team they’ve faced since Purdue? And can they do all of this against a style of play they’ve struggled against, in a gym that has been an absolute nightmare for ‘Bama, and against a coach who has installed the Nate Oats Defeat mod?

That’s a lot of questions. Way too many for my taste, especially against a team that seems to finally be putting it all together. We’ll say that Alabama plays well, but that Arkansas plays just a little better — it’s bound to happen in the SEC on the road from time to time.

Alabama 84
Arkansas 87

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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