Xs and Oats: No Nights Off — Georgia brings some ugly-but-effective team basketball to Tuscaloosa

EDIT: Post-’State hype video just dropped. Excellent stuff here.

There are a handful of teams that I absolutely want no part of on the road in the SEC this season. Alabama has managed to beat one of them in Lexington. Florida and Auburn come to mind. But of all the games on the schedule that you didn’t think you’d have to worry about, it’s this one: The perpetually-slumbering Georgia Bulldogs. And that is a team I simply do not want to play in Athens. Even good squads are leaving town with a 20-point smacking.

Fortunately, the ‘Dawgs come to Tuscaloosa. Still, it’s a Mike White team, which means it’s going to be another exercise in beating back constant hooks, holds, arm bars, the occasional stray elbow, hard clear-outs, and other sorts of tomfoolery.

That doesn’t mean that UGA are only goons, though they are that; it’s a team that has mastered the art of forcing opponents to play their style of game, and that’s an art all unto itself.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 37 Georgia (15-6, 3-5 T-9th) vs No. 4 Alabama (18-3, 7-1 2nd)

Spread: Alabama -12.5

Opponent KenPom: 37 (76 offense, 18 defense, 230 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 41 (72 offense, 18 defense, 171 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 34 (72 offense, 18 defense, 232 tempo)
Opponent NET: 35 (2-6 Q1, 4-6 Q1/Q2); Q2 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 31
Opponent Best Win: vs UK (11)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Ark. (56)

UA Ken Pom: 7th (2 Off, 44 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 6th (3 Off, 30 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 6th (2 Off, 38 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 7 (6-3 Q1, 13-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 1 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 26 (N) Oregon

A year ago, BB4 wrote this about the suddenly-respectable Georgia Bulldogs:

Things are coming up Crimson for Alabama right now, which means that tonight’s meeting with a suddenly competent Georgia Bulldogs (14-6, 4-3 SEC; NET: 78; Kenpom: 69) team is not only that much more important, but also a dangerous trap spot.

Mike White – or as I’ve dubbed him, White Anthony Grant – has brought stability and a strong foundation to a Georgia basketball program that has spent the majority of its existence at the cellar of the SEC. With Auburn’s recent success on the hardwood and Ole Miss and South Carolina having breakout seasons with newly hired head coaches, Georgia is the last remaining historic cellar-dweller to tap into the basketball market. However, there are signs that is changing, as the Bulldogs have suddenly become quite competitive with top recruits – it seems the big money boosters are starting to send some of that NIL money over to the hoops program.

Either way, this year’s Bulldogs have made significant strides from where they were during the disastrous Tom Crean era. Mike White’s teams have always been really sound defensively, and his reclamation project of the Georgia defense has been quite the turnaround – UGA has gone from 318th in the country in Defensive Efficiency in Crean’s last year in 2022 to 55th this season. The offense has lagged behind a bit, but that’s to be expected with White. Still, this is a significantly improved team from what Alabama has experienced in year’s past – and the Tide hasn’t exactly dominated the Dawgs in Athens. The Tide lost their last meeting in Stegemen Coliseum to that same garbage Georgia team in 2022, which was the Bulldogs only win in conference play that year. In Alabama’s breakout 2021 season, Georgia gave the Tide hell on the final day of the regular season, before the SEC Champs pulled away late for an 89-79 win. The year before that, Nate Oats and company needed overtime to put down the Dawgs at their place.

All of this is to say that Alabama can’t overlook these guys. The Tide has done that against much worse Georgia teams in recent years, and with some really ugly results to show for it.

Now in Year Two of the White Anthony Grant Project, we can see the Bulldogs round into form. That defense that was tricky to navigate last year? It’s brutally efficient this season. That roster that lacked an offensive identity? They found one in spades. So, let’s talk ‘Dawgs, and to really do that, you have to begin with their identity as a defense-first, post-led team.

UGA currently sits 18th in defensive efficiency, jumping into a god-tier elite status after last year’s respectable improvement. Why? Well, Georgia’s three biggest deficiencies have been corrected in one short offseason.

• The Bulldogs went from being torched in the perimeter, to 5th in three-point defense.
• The Bulldogs went from being just a tall team that could not defensively rebound very well, to one that is now respectable (Top 3rd, nothing to write home about, but a far cry from last year’s abysmal results.)
• And the Bulldogs went from a team that could not pressure ballhandlers to one that is among the nation’s best in forcing steals.

They’re forcing more picks, guarding the line better, and getting after misses better. The 15-6 (No. 37) ranking isn’t a fluke, nor were the wins over St. Johns (15) and Kentucky. In fact, five of their six losses are all inside the KP Top 25. Only a road loss to Arkansas (No. 58) is “bad” — but that’s a Cal-talent team playing at home, and playing a similar defensive style of ball. More of a tossup than anything.

What is it that UGA does differently than other teams we’ve seen? Mike White is, for all intents and purposes, a Rick Majerus clone. Both of his systems are ripped straight from the pages of those old Ute playbooks.

So, defensively they play a hybrid man system a la Texas A&M. But, aside from Auburn or Ole Miss, this team may close out better than anyone else in the conference. It’s very hard to get breathing space against UGA, simply because they anticipate the pass so well, and then they swarm the shooter, bringing two- and sometimes three-men fronts to force bad shots and even worse decisions with the basketball. You have to be patient and find your spot with them, make the extra pass, and use the whole court to find good looks. Not a single starter is under 6’5”, so the guards are as long and tall as you will see. Holloway and Sears aren’t going over the top of these guys often. And certainly not with the way Georgia outnumbers shooters.

Offensively, the Bulldogs run a 4-1 Motion Offense. We covered that earlier this week, so I’m not reprising it in great detail. Just know that the center rotates around the lane, with four players setting up the play at the perimeter. The goal is to create traffic off screens and find easy buckets in the paint.

Because so much of Georgia’s motion takes place within the first few feet of the three-point line, White’s iteration of the 41 has been called a “zone offense.” You’re not going to see a lot of movement below the free throw line. And, in Georgia’s case, that motion isn’t to free up perimeter shooters: you will see very few possessions where the ball does not at least make an entry to the post.

This team leads from the blocks. It’s brutally efficient.

When I use the phrase “brutal efficiency” I mean that in somewhat positive regard. Like their namesakes at the football program, it’s about putting a body-on-body, and winning the physical battles. It is fair to describe Georgia, like the football program, as predictable and boring. You know what’s coming — you just have to be able to stop it. Teams are having a hard time doing so.

Here’s your link:

However, rather than the Jay Wright model, Mike White’s adoption is patterned much more off of Rick Majerus’ old Utah teams. Theirs is a system that relies heavily on ball screens, and especially staggers — where the motion-man sprints to a space on the floor to receive a pass. It makes it much harder to defend, since UGA can pre-set screens and take away a space, rather than popping into a space to cut off a defender (there’s that “zone offense” concept). It has even more motion than Jans’ offense does, and it operates with a lot more isolation off the screens than does MSU. But many of the looks and philosophy are going to be fresh on everyone’s mind.

That said, Alabama could be well positioned to face the ‘Dawgs. Could. The Tide’s poor pick and roll defense, and their struggles against elite big men all year, is going to have to improve. Teams have had success on the PnR all year against ‘Bama, and if Georgia smells blood in the water, they’ll run PnR on every trip down the floor. Mike White won’t get cute like Jans did: he’ll take what the Tide’s generous interior defense surrenders.

Key Personnel

Fam, I’m not going to lie: UGA’s dominant freshman C/PF Asa Newell is about to feed.

The Tide has issues stopping good big men — all the way from Milicilic to Oscar Cuff to Kalkenbrenner and everyone in between. He’s one of the nation’s best offensive rebounders, and is third in the SEC clocking a ridiculous 1.3 points per shooting possession (only Johni Broome and Murray-Boyles have been better — lest I remind you, CMB went off in ‘Bama’s rout of USC). For good measure, he’s also a better perimeter shooter than Jarin, and he will let them rip from beyond the arc too. You have to guard him the whole possession.

There’s not a matter of stopping Newell, not with anyone on this roster. ‘Bama’s best hope is to platoon Mo and Cliff on defense, collapse with some backside help to force a turnover or pass. And then you beat the shit out of him every possession and dare the SEC officiating crew to call a foul every time — Ole Miss, Auburn, Tennessee and Mississippi State get away with it. Why not give it a shot? He fouls a bunch, and because the offense runs through him, you can keep his aggression at bay by getting some quick early whistles against him.

Short of that, or attacking the basket all night to get him in concomitant foil trouble, I think the ‘Bama frontcourt is in for a long, long game.

But the Dawgs also have elite depth at the Bigs. C/PF RJ Godfrey (6’10”) and Somto Cyril (7’) are massive bodies that see quality minutes and contribute to the Bulldogs improved rebounding (they are 2nd and 3rd on the team in that category; Newell is first, obviously). Their offensive contribution is limited, but they afford UGA a lot of second chances and help limit teams to one-and-done possessions.

That said, there is a light at the end of the tunnel! Sure, Georgia is going to have a great night in the paint. But Alabama has seen this playbook before: the South Carolina Gamecocks. And, I would expect the Tide to follow that script. You take away the guards and force a defense-first, post-first team with an elite big to beat you only with big men.

To that end, ‘Bama needs to neutralize the Georgia backcourt, and its pair of fairly mediocre guys. The best of the bunch is PG Silas Demary, who leads the team in assists and steals. He’s also the best perimeter shooter (38%). Still, he’s not a matchup terror like Josh Hubbard. Think of him as Great Value Zakaria Ziegler: a decent-shooting, solid defender who turns it over a bunch. He’s a 1:1 player back there, so getting on-ball pressure will be key. Don’t let him have easy entries to Newell. SG Dakota Leffew isn’t going to set the world on fire, but he is the second-best perimeter shooter on a team with limited scoring options.

The key to a ‘Bama loss would be letting Newell go off, getting outhusted by the other bigs, and then still letting UGA’s guards get going. They can’t take the night off back there.

How To Watch

It’s a weird one: Sat 1 Feb, 3 CST, ESPN 2

Prediction

I think Newell is going to utterly destroy the Tide big men. They’re just not built for this. He’s one of the nation’s best freshmen, and certainly at a spot where elite freshmen are hard to find. But, it’s nothing new for the Tide. They can play this sort of game, where they are tasked with minimizing the effort of average backcourts, while still letting stars in the post go nuts.

But Alabama is going to have to work for it at the same time. UGA is prone to overextending on defense, and you can still find perimeter shots. They foul a ton, so Alabama will get plenty of opportunities there — assuming they can hit them. And it’s also a team that just doesn’t shoot very well beyond one guard and Newell.

Can Alabama win a defensive game where it allows two players to have a great night? They’ve done it repeatedly all year. But what they cannot do is throw this game away to a very opportunistic team that plays a very deliberate, physical style of basketball. For the love of God, hang on to the ball and make your free throws.

It’s going to be an ugly game. Georgia doesn’t apologize for that. Unfortunately, ugly team basketball has been the bane of Bama’s existence. The Tide are going to have to prove that “blue collar basketball” is more than just a motto in order to secure the win in Coleman. And be very glad that it is in Coleman; barring some unconscious shooting, it’s apt to be a war as-is.

Alabama 83
Georgia 74

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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