Xs and Oats: St Mary’s presents Alabama with worst possible matchup, at the worst possible time

The old saw in March is “survive and advance.” But when you are one of a handful of legitimate title favorites, struggling for 40 minutes against an undersized Horizon team, getting mopped up on the glass, and having to rely on an injured 5th-year senior coming off the bench to bail out terrible interior defense, that doesn’t engender much confidence in you the rest of the way. Mere survival — even trailing in the second half — simply will not cut it.

Since Nate Oats arrived, the downfall of far too many Tide squads has been patient team basketball that forces Alabama to play smart, rather than just fast. That is doubly true for teams that hustle on the interior. Those very things that we warned of against Robert Morris hold true again today against the WCC regular season champion St. Mary’s Gaels. The things that St. Mary’s does are uniquely positioned to give Alabama problems — and, for an injured Crimson Tide, this game could not come at a less opportune moment.

Indeed, it is the worst possible matchup, at the worst possible time.

Let’s see why, in this battle of two teams that present the most fundamental clash of styles that you will ever see.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 2 Alabama (26-8, SEC 3rd) v No. 7 St Mary’s (29-5, WCC 1st)

Spread: Alabama -5.5

Opponent KenPom: 22 (59 offense, 7 defense, 360 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 12 (53 offense, 9 defense, 359 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 22 (57 offense, 9 defense, 359 tempo)
Opponent NET: 22 (4-3 Q1, 10-5 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 93
Opponent Best Win: vs Gonzaga / @ Gonzaga (8)
Opponent Worst Loss: n Arizona State (66)

UA Ken Pom: 6th (4 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (2 Off, 20 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (4 Off, 28 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (12-8 Q1, 20-8 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 2 @ Auburn
UA Worst Loss: No. 29 (N) Oregon

Before we dive into Saint Mary’s at a deeper level, here are the Cliff Notes: The Gaels are an absurdly tall team (taller than Alabama); they are elite rebounders on both ends of the floor; they are methodical and plodding on the offensive end; they are physical defenders (one of the best floor defenses in the country) and you can expect contact on every shot; they play just on edge enough to avoid sending opponents to the line; they live and die in the paint — particularly in put-backs generated by offensive rebounds; and they are not reliant on the three-point shot, but can be streaky and are especially clutch back there.

Nothing about what Saint Mary’s does is complex, relying much more on execution than schematic brilliance. Defensively, they want to contest shots above all else. They do not focus on forcing turnovers and making risky defensive gambles to get the ball back. In a sport where great players miss 60% of the time, the Gaels would rather force a tough shot, and then focus on getting the rebound. They are excellent at it too, and manage that feat without being a drop defense in the backcourt.

St. Mary’s makes eye contact through the entire possession, slides their feet very well without losing balance, and they play help-man with a rotating second defender in the post. Alabama will be lucky to find just one defender in the lane; the Gaels understand their assignment and almost always have backside pressure on the ball down low. Mark Sears in particular will have to have a plan before he runs pell mell into the post.

That is where St. Mary’s size comes into play. Their frontcourt big lineup goes 6’10”, 7’1” and 7’1”…the “small” lineup is 7’1”, 6’10” and 6’8”. The guards are long too: 6’4”, 6’6” and 6’3”. It makes contesting shots, and particularly blocking them, easy with that kind of length. And good luck trying to beat SMC for rebounds after they force a bad shot. There is a reason this team is 5th in the country, allowing just a shade over 60 PPG.

Offensively, the system is almost as simple as it is on the defensive side of the court. The Gaels run a “read-and-react” zone offense, where they set up in a 2-3 or 1-2-2 look, and run their set play depending on what look the defense is presenting, after an entry pass into the lane. It has a lot more isolation than what you see in most college ball, and it’s not too clever like Byington at Vanderbilt either. Though I would not count on total iso. Randy Bennett is renowned as perhaps the best ball screen X and O coach in the game, with the Gaels always among the nation’s best in floor shooting.

Alabama’s defenders are going to have to be exceptionally disciplined to counter the variety of screen looks St Mary’s presents: Chin-up, flares, high ball, horns-twist (Texas ran this curl repeatedly with Tre Johnson), and of course pick and roll, and screen and roll.

In particular, the Tide will have to be vigilant against that high ball action that can begin 30 feet from the basket and hang up defenders, as well as the iso penetration that is a feint for a short bounce-pass and far easier layup by the big. I lost track of the variety of looks that St Mary’s flashes to execute this same basic play:

It is unselfish team basketball.

The three bigs all average between 7-8 rebounds a night. Senior PG Marciuolionis leads the group with 6.1 assists per game, and is in on 33% of every Gael bucket. Senior Lithuanian PF/C Paulius Murauskas leads the team with 8.0 rebounds. Senior C Mitchell Saxen is third in assists and leads the team in steals. Marciulionis is the nominal scoring leader, but it’s a balanced bunch: four starters average double-digits.

Did I mention that the Gaels legitimately go six deep in the frontcourt, including three centers who see substantial PT — and not one of them is under 6’11”. This team is 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding and 9th in defensive rebounding. Simply put, for an Alabama team that has been soft on the inside all year, that is susceptible to disciplined team basketball, and that now has both of its best frontcourt players injured, the interior is apt to be a house of horrors for the Tide today.

But, it can’t rain all the time, and what Saint Mary’s has in patience and execution — and I watched them strangle Gonzaga twice this year — it lacks in raw firepower. It’s not a good shooting bunch at all. Not a single perimeter player is above the NCAA average from the three-point line, though they do have some volume games when they need to, and they are far more clutch than averages would indicate. Somehow, they are also improbably worse free throw shooters than Alabama, and far worse floor shooters.

But you keep coming back to that rebounding — Saint Mary’s is great on the offensive glass because they have to be. That’s what so much of the Gaels’ offense relies on: superior positioning and toughness in a game of limited possessions. For Alabama to win this game they are going to have to get good looks, make them count, run when they can, make their free throws, and limit SMC to one possession.

This isn’t a new formula. It’s the same on that the Tide had to have to beat Florida. And they failed on both occasions. But, whereas the Gators use those second-chance points to fuel a high octane offense, St. Mary’s must have them to win games.

Alabama is going to have to be significantly better today than it was on Friday to defeat them.

Point Spread and Prediction

Matchups make the contest, and this is as tough a matchup as you will see outside of perhaps those Gators. I almost could not lab-build a better team custom-made to beat Alabama if I tried.

But it is that weasel word “almost” that affords Alabama its breathing room: The Tide’s offense is significantly more efficient, and that is expected to be the difference here — especially if it can generate a lead of any size; the Gaels aren’t built to play from behind. But not a moment of this contest will be easy, nor can you relax until that final horn sounds. And, yes, it’s going to be aggravating to no end to watch 7’1” white guys from the Baltics absolutely dominate the Tide’s tissue-soft and banged up post — and that’s going to happen — but hopefully the payoff will come from a far better ‘Bama backcourt.

In a game of contrasts, this is solely going to rely on position and toughness and hustle over pure talent, and above all discipline on both ends of the floor. It’s just up to Alabama to decide if they want to do the things they need to win that kind of war.

If they can’t, they’re going home. It’s that simple.

But, the data says they can. Indeed, that they will. And we just have to trust the math here.

Per FanDuel, Alabama is a -5.5 favorite. Where Alabama is better than St. Mary’s, they are overwhelmingly so, and the numbers think that’s enough: Alabama by 6.70

Alabama: 72
St Mary’s: 65

Again, our thanks to FanDuel for sponsoring this site. We’ll see you over there.

How To Watch

5:10 Central, Sunday 23 March 25 TBS

Hope for the best,
Roll Tide

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