Xs and Oats: Tied atop the SEC, ‘Bama heads to Austin to face Great Value Ole Miss

Texas Coach Rodney Terry deserves a lot of credit for rallying the Longhorns following Beard’s arrest and dismissal two-plus years ago. He won almost 30 games, secured a 2-seed, and notched a Sweet 16 for Texas. But that was the zenith, so it seems. Despite recruiting at a high level, having outstanding institutional and financial support, and playing in one of the most palatial gyms in the country, it is fair to say Terry has underachieved. And the eclectic, defense-oriented Chris Beard system that the one-time assistant inherited is just not translating yet in ways that make the fans forget about the old guy.

In his first full season, UT went 21-13, was a middling seed in the NCAA tournament, and didn’t make it out of the first weekend. Moving from the grist mill of the Big 12 has not provided respite either. If anything, the SEC has been a harder path to navigate. Texas currently sits at 15-9, and faces six tournament teams in its last seven matchups — four on the road.

Terry’s seat would be a lot hotter were it not for Texas’ surprisingly-solid home play that saw the Horns upend Mizzou and A&M, and be an absolute menace to UConn, Auburn and Tennessee. And therein lies the problem — the Longhorns are almost good enough to trade punches with the nation’s title contenders, but not so good as to land enough of their own punches to get out of the “merely very good” category.

Though not as talented a team as Arkansas, the ‘Horns pose their own set of problems for the Tide, and doubly so at home. Despite fans being mad, given UT’s analytical profile, where they lie in the top 12% nationally on both sides of the ball, the Horns’ record is right about where it should be (even about 1 game above expected win values).

There haven’t been any bad losses for Shortie this year. There just haven’t been nearly enough great wins either. Let’s hope ‘Bama isn’t the one they hang their hat on this year..which is more plausible than the records would suggest.

Tale of the Tape:
No. 32 Texas (15-9, 4-7 T-10th) vs No. 3 Alabama (19-3, 8-1 2nd)

Spread: N/A, though likely in the 5-7 point range, and Ken Pom has it ‘Bama -2.

Opponent KenPom: 32 (36 offense, 43 defense, 206 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 35 (36 offense, 38 defense, 163 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 34 (27 offense, 46 defense, 207 tempo)
Opponent NET: 31 (3-7 Q1, 6-9 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 73
Opponent Best Win: vs Texas A&M (15)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Vandy (48)

UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (4 Off, 30 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 4th (3 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (7-3 Q1, 14-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 35 (N) Oregon

Want to know about Texas?

At the risk of being reductive, Rodney Terry is a Chris Beard clone, and his Longhorns are a more athletic, Big Lots version of Ole Miss.

I’m not about to type everything that I wrote for the Ole Miss preview again, so let our friend copy+paste do the heavy lifting. Subtract powder blue, add white and burnt orange, but otherwise the approach is the same:

Defensively:

If you’ve never seen how Beard’s teams play, and you’re a fan of old-school, stance-based on-ball defense, then you’re in for a treat. Both offensively and defensively, the Rebels are a throwback team. They’re a throwback to fundamental defense that emphasizes footwork and low posture as a means to deny penetration and easy passes.

Because the defenders squat on the ball, that makes opposing guards be wary with even routine dribbling: Ole Miss will pick your pocket. That lower bearing also means defenders aren’t leaving their feet for every ball fake, so easy entries to the post are scarce to come by. And, even if the ball handler does beat his his man off a screen, he’s in for a treat — because he’s going to find that there’s already at least one other defender in position waiting on him.

Beard emphasizes a “no middle” strategy, and that means every entry pass or cut to the inside is to be contested. To accomplish this, the Rebels (like A&M) cheat towards the basket, and you don’t often see them come out beyond the arc to pick up a shooter. However, when they do, it’s to trap the guard into a bad decision or cut off penetration to the basket. But, unlike other on-ball pressure teams we’ve seen, Beards’ squads are so hyper-aggressive about switching off, that it’s fairer to call his defensive style more of a hybrid man-zone in actuality. Calling it a 2-1-2 Matchup zone, with isn’t entirely unfair.

Alabama has struggled mightily against hybrid zone teams this year, getting romped by the Rebels, and being in a cage match with Mississippi State in Starkville. Let’s hope over the last month that the lessons learned in those two meetings will help ‘Bama better adjust to the looks they see on Tuesday.

Texas doesn’t execute the defense to quite the same high level as Ole Miss, and they do play a bit more straight-man defense than the Rebels. But elsewise, there have been few wrinkles added by the ‘Horns coaching staff. That also means the same issues inherently remain though: tendency to being outrebounding, fouling a lot and sending opponents to the free throw line, vulnerability to the second-pass perimeter shot.

Offense:

Schematically, again, the system is one that we saw vs. the Rebels: Eclectic, motion-oriented offense with a lot of off-ball screens, emphasis on shot selection, pick-and-roll easy looks near the rim, and pass-and-cut on-ball screens. It does a little bit of everything offensively, but is a bit more dynamic than the Rebels.

For a start, the Longhorns rely on the perimeter game for a higher percentage of their offense — though they are not a great shooting squad overall. Alabama currently has the nation’s best 3P% defense (surprised me too), so this is going to be a matchup to watch. As go the Texas perimeter shots, so go the Horns. They’ve usually been good enough to keep games very competitive. But when they’ve not fared well beyond the arc, they’ve gotten smashed.

It’s also a much taller team than Ole Miss, which makes their offensive rebounding struggles a bit of a mystery. This team can and does routinely get beat on the glass, and doesn’t follow their misses nearly as well as they should.

But they are elite in hanging on to the ball, drawing fouls, getting to the line and making those freebies count. ‘Bama is going to need to play position defense without fouling, and especially get after defensive rebounds. This team can be trouble offensively…but they can also throw up a lot of reckless shots, particularly once they’re outside the paint.

The end result is a team that is actually playing worse than the sum of their parts, especially an offense that looks great analytically, but has too many unforced bad shots, and too little effort on put-backs, to be as efficient as they could.

If you want to know what the full schemes look like in depth, review the Ole Miss write-up.

Key Personnel

Texas is perhaps the deepest team ‘Bama will face in the SEC, and perhaps all season; eleven guys see 15+ minutes of action, and even the starting lineup of three guards rarely log more than 25 minutes. In fact, only two players even notch 30+. That includes this week’s mismatch nightmare: 6’6” freshman wingman, Tre Johnson. The SG/SF leads the ‘Horns at 19.2 per night, logs 33 MP per game, is the team’s best FT shooter, and hits a sizzling 38% from the three-point line. If that weren’t bad enough, he’s an absolute volume guy too: almost seven 3PA per game, and he’s shooting 50% more than anyone else on the team. It goes without saying that he leads the ‘Horns in scoring — and actually the entire SEC. ‘Bama has rarely been able to shut down the opponents’ star players, and I doubt Johnson will be the first for the Tide this year either.

SG Tramon Mark is their Chris Youngblood: a very good perimeter shooter, who also attacks the glass and is a good defender. He and backup PG Jordan Pope combine for 21 a night — and both are tits-out at the free throw line: Texas has three regular rotation players that all flirt with 87-88% from the stripe. You can’t foul this team late in the possession. They make a living with gimmes (4th in the SEC in FT scoring). Pope is also probably the best on-ball defender in the backcourt.

The 6’11” Kadrin Shedrick is a solid all-around PF/C type. Decent enough scorer, but his real contributions are as a rim defender and defensive rebounder. Joining him in the backcourt is their more dangerous scorer. Arthur Kaluma is second on the team in scoring and first in rebounding. He’s also a very good ball distributor, and is second on the team in assists. If Texas is Ole Miss you find on Temu, Kaluma is an off-label Collin Murray-Boyles.

It’s honestly easier to find players on the roster who don’t contribute to the ‘Horns offense than who do. Short of the ball hogging freshman, four other guys have at least 150 attempts from the floor. It’s not a team shy about putting up shots. The downside is that they are just 11th in offensive efficiency, and don’t rebound great on the offensive end. But if ‘Bama gives this team too many second chances, they’ll get ran out of the building. The Horns can get hot in a hurry and know how to cheese their way to the foul line. When you combine that with their excellent ball control and floor defense, it’s a bad mix for visitors.

How To Watch

Another prime time game, baby: 8 central, ESPN/ESPN2 11 Feb 25.

Prediction

I respect this team. I respect the road. But Alabama should be the better team here, provided they actually close out on defense. The Tide’s perimeter defense is probably going to get tested at times, and I don’t think there’s a particularly good matchup for Johnson. And Kaluma is probably in for a good night as well. But Alabama has won a lot of games this year with a fairly predictable formulae: Let one guy in the backcourt and one guy in the frontcourt feed; minimize everyone else’s contributions.

That may be a bit taller task than usual, given the depth of the ‘Horns. But their poor shot selection, ‘Bama’s excellent defensive rebounding, and Alabama’s better post depth and tempo are all going to help them. Also helpful for the Tide is that this is now the third team that ‘Bama has seen with this same general approach on both ends of the floor — and the concomitant weaknesses the schemes possess. Texas hasn’t seen ‘Bama yet, nor even their analogue in Lexington.

We’ll say that the third time is the charm, and that there is not a disgraceful spate of laziness that allows a beaten team to hang in and almost claim a victory. The Tide will need to be wary of exactly that: the ‘Horns love late-half runs; they’re rarely ever truly put down for good. Too tenacious. Too talented.

Let’s hope ‘Bama gets that memo. Big Lots Ole Miss they may be, but ‘Bama got absolutely destroyed by the name-brand version.

Alabama 87
Arkansas 81

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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