Final Thoughts on the Election
People vote for many different reasons. One of the biggest issues is the economy. I’ve covered the economy a lot over the last few weeks.
We found that America’s economy is good, perhaps even the best in the world. America is making more energy than any other country in the history of the world with historic low unemployment rates.
We learned that housing is expensive because of the builders back in the great recession among other things. Finally, I covered that immigation keeps inflation low and that Trump’s tax and national debt policies would be disastrous. Importantly, Biden and Harris have cut down immigation even lower than Trump and no one would talk be talking about immigation at all if Trump didn’t stop the bipartisan immigration bill to strengthen the boarder.
There may be a little more nuance to all those articles, but that’s the quick summary.
If you’d like a shorter version of what I’ve covered, I like Retire By 40’s summary of where each candidate wants to take the economy.
Perhaps, I’ve been beating a dead horse, but this is a financial website and since it’s on people’s mind, I need to cover it. And as far as the election and politics go, I imagine this will be the last post on that for a while.
I feel it’s important to share some non-financial thoughts. While some people will be single-issue voters on the economy, I think many others will vote based on a number of other things that are important to them.
Voters OVERWHELMING Support only ONE Candidate’s Policies
A YouGov survey blind-tested 9025 voters on 100+ policy proposals. The voters would only see the policy and choose strongly agree, agree, not sure, disagree, or stongly disagree. Then they’d find out later which policy matched with which candidate.
The result? “Nearly all of Harris’s proposals received majority support among registered voters. Only half of Trump’s did.”
In short, almost 100% of people prefer the direction that Harris wants to take the country and only half support the direction Trump wants to go.
You can take the test yourself, with this gift article to the Washington Post.
One thing that came out is that most people found that Harris’s policies were tougher on crime. In addition to that, “nearly every crime-related policy on Trump’s agenda tests poorly. Among his biggest misses: allowing the death penalty as punishment for drug-related offenses (only 29 percent of voters support it); and giving police officers full protection from personal liability in civil suits (31 percent).”
Democracy Itself is on the Ballot
Do you like the ability to vote for what you want or do you like to told what to do? I can tell you how my kids would answer that question. They wouldn’t even have to think about it.
Some people will say it is political rhetoric to say that democracy is on the ballot. However, there are hundreds of people in jail and a few people dead due to the last insurrection to stop the peace exchange of power.
The New York Times covers democracy on the ballot quite well and clearly. I’ll use most of their words here, but it’s worth the full read:
Donald Trump has shown more hostility to American democracy than any other president in the country’s history. He tried to overturn an election result. He celebrates political violence. The list goes on, and it is familiar by now….
The country’s political system survived his first term, after all, and many Americans understandably wonder how much different a second term would be.
It really could be different…
There are at least six major ways Trump could weaken American democracy.
1. Prosecute critics…
2. Silence critics in other ways…
3. Reward allies and campaign donors…
4. Replace federal employees with loyalists…
5. Undermine previously enacted policies…
6. Refuse to transfer power peacefully…I know that Trump supporters may ask why we’re not writing a similar newsletter about the Democratic Party… But Trump’s anti-democratic behavior is of a different order of magnitude. Pretending otherwise is false balance…
[For example, Biden’s Justice Department] has indicted not only prominent Republicans (like Trump) but also prominent Democrats (like Mayor Eric Adams and Senator Robert Menendez), a major Democratic fund-raiser (Sam Bankman-Fried, the now imprisoned crypto executive) and even the president’s son (Hunter Biden)…
I also know that some Democrats will argue that the list here is too short and should include Trump’s potential policies on abortion, immigration, climate change and more. But it’s worth distinguishing between policy disputes and democracy itself…
Attacks on democracy are different. If democracy breaks down, the political system can lose the ability to self-correct.
I cut out quite a bit of that article that gave examples of how all those things aren’t just theoretical or political rhetoric. I encourage you to read the complete article if you aren’t convinced what I presented here.
Reproductive Rights
I was 6 years old when Fast Times at Ridgemont High came out. I wasn’t old enough to watch it for a good number of years, but I think my sister let me watch it earlier. That was my first exposure to abortion and choices that young women sometimes make. I’m doing my best to stave off the big 5-0, now. Getting medical treatment has been the norm my entire life. It’s been a couple of years and I still can’t wrap my head that it’s no longer the case.
I can’t understand why the government would interfere with the doctor-patient relationship. Why would any state threaten to jail (or worse) medical professionals for doing their job? That’s a sure-fire way to make healthcare in this country worse and more expensive. Who would vote for that?
It makes even less sense that the government control on abortion would be at the state level. Medical treatment is the same in Georgia as it is in Vermont. Abortion isn’t performed different in Georgia than Vermont. State elections should be about state issues such as funding for a state university or reparing a landmark from a natural disaster.
Judges
Trump was able to replace three Supreme Court justices during his last term and we’ve seen a mess as a result of that. Two of the oldest justics, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito have been caught in bribery and political scandals. The public trust in the Supreme Court is near the lowest it has been in the last 40 years (probably longer):
The judges often vote with the political party of the President who nominated them. These unelected officials with lifetime appointments can change what has been settled law like abortion for decades. It’s not surprising that public trust is at an all-time low. In addition to the scandals, the Democratic party has won the popular vote in the 7 of the last 8 elections (dating back to 1992), but the Supreme Court has 6 Republican and 3 Democratic appointed justices. When all 6 break decades of settled precident to side with their party and against the public will – well, it’s a recipe for being unfavorable.
If Trump wins, the aforementioned two oldest judges could retire and be replaced with judges who are 25 years younger. Due to the lifetime appointments, the Supreme Court could continue to take the law into their own hands for maybe the next 50 years.
From The Cutting Room Floor…
I had a lot of fun using ChatGPT to make unbiased cases such as what a good ecomony is and how American ranks in the global picture. I wanted to end with some of the ChatGPTs that weren’t a good fit for the economic articles. As with my previous ChatGPTs, I instructed it to give me an numeral rating on a scale of 1 to 100. If you don’t like AI responses, this is a good time to scroll down and leave a comment about the above part of the article. I apologize for the formatting on the responses. ChatGPT seems to format answers differently for some reason.
Which Candidate is More Likely to Start World War 3?
I often chat with a friend with who either likes to troll, play Devil’s Advocate, or really feel that Trump is the best choice. Sometimes she’d make a statement and I used ChatGPT as a neutral arbitrator. This question came from that.
My Prompt:
Which candidate is more likely to cause World War 3? Limit your response to 200 words.
ChatGPT’s Response
The likelihood of a candidate causing a global conflict, such as World War III, depends on their foreign policy approach, diplomatic style, and willingness to escalate military engagements.
Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)Diplomatic Approach: Harris is more inclined toward diplomacy and multilateral engagement. Her support for rebuilding international alliances and prioritizing diplomacy with adversaries (e.g., re-engaging in the Iran nuclear deal) reduces the chances of escalating tensions into a global conflict.
Military Intervention: Harris supports targeted, strategic use of military force but has shown restraint in advocating for large-scale intervention.Likelihood of Causing WWIII: Low (25/100)
Donald Trump (Republican Party)Unpredictability: Trump’s foreign policy style is more unilateral and confrontational. His withdrawal from global agreements, tensions with countries like Iran and North Korea, and confrontational rhetoric with China could heighten tensions. While he avoided starting wars during his presidency, his unpredictable approach and willingness to use military threats raise the potential for escalation.
Transactional Diplomacy: His approach might inadvertently lead to miscalculation in volatile regions.Likelihood of Causing WWIII: Moderate (50/100)
While neither candidate is highly likely to cause a world war, Trump’s unpredictable style poses a somewhat higher risk of escalating conflicts.
Which Candidate has the Better Character?
It’s hard to measure character. I felt that it would be interesting to see which candidate closely matches values that I would want my kids to emulate. After all, that’s true leadership. With my kids in Scouting America (Cub Scouts and Boy Scouts), I figured that the Scout Law would be a great place to start. The Scout Law is, “A Scout is trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean, and reverent.”
My Prompt:
Grade each candidate, Trump and Harris, on a scale of 1 to 10 on how they adhere to the Boy Scout Law
ChatGPT’s Response
Here’s a grading for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump based on their alignment with the Boy Scout Law. The 12 points of the Boy Scout Law are: Trustworthy, Loyal, Helpful, Friendly, Courteous, Kind, Obedient, Cheerful, Thrifty, Brave, Clean, and Reverent. Each grade reflects their public behavior, policies, and leadership style.
Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)Trustworthy: 7/10 Harris generally projects reliability, but some critics question the consistency of her positions, especially on topics like criminal justice reform. Loyal: 9/10 Harris has shown loyalty to her party, her constituents, and the causes she advocates for, especially on issues like women’s rights and social justice. Helpful: 9/10 Throughout her career, Harris has worked on policies to help underserved communities, including healthcare access and criminal justice reform. Friendly: 8/10 Harris is known for engaging thoughtfully and respectfully with people, including opponents during debates, reflecting a friendly demeanor. Courteous: 9/10 She is often praised for her courteousness, even when facing intense opposition or during contentious discussions. Kind: 8/10 Harris has advocated for policies that promote fairness and equality, reflecting kindness, although her past as a prosecutor has drawn criticism. Obedient (to laws and systems): 9/10 Harris has a strong legal background and a clear respect for upholding laws and the Constitution. Cheerful: 7/10 Harris generally presents herself with a positive attitude, though her public persona is often serious due to the gravity of the issues she addresses. Thrifty: 6/10 Some fiscal conservatives argue that Harris supports costly social programs. However, she believes in investing in people, so this is more of a subjective point. Brave: 9/10 Harris has taken brave stances on controversial issues like immigration, racial justice, and reproductive rights, often in the face of strong opposition. Clean: 8/10 There have been no major scandals or personal issues tarnishing her record, though political opponents have criticized her prosecutorial decisions. Reverent: 7/10 Harris respects people’s spiritual and ethical beliefs, though she emphasizes secular values like justice and equality more than religious reverence.Overall Average: 8/10
Donald Trump (Republican Party)Trustworthy: 4/10 Trump has been criticized for frequent misstatements, which fact-checkers have highlighted throughout his career. However, many of his supporters trust his overall vision and agenda. Loyal: 9/10 Trump has demonstrated strong loyalty to his supporters and has consistently advocated for an "America First" agenda, prioritizing national over global interests. Helpful: 5/10 Trump’s policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, are viewed as helpful by many businesses, but others argue they disproportionately benefit the wealthy rather than broader society. Friendly: 4/10 Trump’s combative style, especially in debates and public appearances, often comes across as unfriendly, though he has a loyal personal base that sees him as approachable. Courteous: 3/10 Trump has a reputation for being blunt, often disparaging his opponents and even allies. This contrasts with the Scout value of courteousness. Kind: 4/10 While some appreciate his directness, Trump’s treatment of marginalized groups, as well as his often aggressive rhetoric, detracts from the idea of kindness. Obedient (to laws and systems): 5/10 Trump has often clashed with legal institutions and pushed boundaries, especially regarding executive power. While his supporters see this as challenging the status quo, others view it as disregard for legal norms. Cheerful: 6/10 Trump often projects confidence and energy, especially in rally settings, but he also focuses on grievances and criticisms, which can diminish a cheerful demeanor. Thrifty: 7/10 Trump advocates for cutting government regulations and taxes, which appeals to fiscal conservatives, though his own administration faced criticism for increasing the national deficit. Brave: 9/10 Trump is bold in his approach, often taking unconventional positions and challenging both political norms and his opponents. Clean: 4/10 Trump's presidency has been marked by numerous legal and ethical controversies, from impeachment to lawsuits, which affect his score in this category. Reverent: 6/10 Trump has expressed support for religious freedoms and aligned himself with Christian conservative values, though his personal reverence for spiritual or ethical principles may not always align with traditional expectations.Overall Average: 5.5/10
Trump’s bravery and loyalty support his character score. Harris matches his there and wins in every other category.
Final Thoughts on the ChatGPTs
I didn’t include some of the ChatGPTs in the conversation with my friend. Some of them like, “Who is more authoritarian” were too obvious. However, in all our debates, there was never one in Trump beat Harris. As I’m about to publish this article now, I asked ChatGPT why people might vote for Trump. It pointed out Trump’s strength in three areas: economy, foreign policy, and judicial appointments.
I concede the judicial appointments. That’s a legitimate political difference that’s worth voting for if that’s your belief. That said, as covered above, most Americans view the Supreme Court as unfavorable. On the other two, economy and foreign policy, ChatGPT graded Harris as a better candidate for most Americans than Trump.
