Weekend Reading – A history lesson in getting it wrong
Hi Everyone!
Welcome to some new Weekend Reading material: sharing a short history lesson in getting it wrong.
Before more details on that and what I mean, some recent reads on my site…
Last weekend, I shared my answer to this question below:
And…this past week, I updated this post about the very first dividend paying stock I purchased approaching 20 years ago…
Weekend Reading – A history lesson in getting it wrong
Let’s jump right in!
Some investors have benefited from the content shared by Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki.
I am not one of them.
His book highlights how he believes wealth is really built: by owning real estate, taking on signficant leverage, and owning other assets including alternative assets in the process. Kiyosaki has been quoted about owning some $1.2 billion in debt recently.
He says he likes debt and remains in debt because: “if I go bust, the bank goes bust. Not my problem.”
Recently, I noticed this latest prediction from him on X:
I thought it would be interesting for this Weekend Reading edition to share a brief history lesson in getting it wrong.
Robert Kiyosaki claims/tweets/quotes:
April 7, 2011 (tweet): “For the educated, an economic crash is the best time to get rich. Guess what? The crashing is not over.”
Yes, always a good time to buy Robert but saying this does not make you an expert: S&P 500 gained about 2% that year.
Sept. 1, 2015 (tweet): “I’ve been predicting since ’02 that we would see a stock market crash in ’16.”
Fact: S&P 500 gained just over 1% that year.
July 30, 2017 (tweet): “Another sign a real estate crash is coming…..”
Sure, maybe?: S&P 500 investors gained almost 22% that year.
Aug. 7, 2018 (article): “Unfortunately we had a big crash in 2000, they called it the dotcom crash, then in 2008 it was the subprime real estate crash. The next is going to be the biggest of all. When it’s coming I don’t really know, but the foreshocks are sounding right now.”
Fact, you can’t know: S&P 500 investors only lost about 4% that year.
April 17, 2020 (tweet): “CRASH ONLY BEGINNING: Buffet says ‘When tide goes out you see who’s been swimming NAKED.’ Billions of naked swimmers. SAD.”
Oct. 28, 2020 (tweet): “The EVERYTHING CRASH is coming. Since 1987 world has been in EVERYTHING BUBBLE. Now all crashing. Prices of gold silver Bitcoin will crash too. US dollar to rise. Be patient.”
Fact, wrong again: S&P 500 gained around 18% that year.
Sept. 26, 2021 (tweet): “Giant stock market crash coming October. Why? Treasury and Fed short of T-bills. Gold, silver, Bitcoin may crash too.”
Fact, see a pattern (??): S&P 500 gained over 25% that year.
July 17, 2023 (tweet): “I do not play the stock or bond markets. As an entrepreneur I like my hands on control too much. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.”
Dec. 10, 2023 (tweet): “Get some cash out of banks as you need cash. This may be the start of the biggest crash in history.”
Reality, too bad he doesn’t invest in the U.S. stock market: S&P 500 gained over 25% that year.
May 2, 2024 (tweet): “BAD NEWS: CRASH has BEGUN. It will be a bad one.”
Fact: S&P 500 gained close to 25% last year.
Sources:
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- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/robert-kiyosaki-track-record-stock-market-crashes
- https://www.slickcharts.com
- www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874
Predictions can be fun. Good entertainment. I make them for that reason!
But…relying on any expert information or following any social media advice for your personal finance decision-making needs could be disastrous to your financial health.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/t6aegc/robert_kiyosakis_investment_advice/
More Weekend Reading – Beyond a history lesson in getting it wrong
I enjoy Ben Carlson’s balanced takes. He recently wrote about having too much safety in your portfolio.
Here is another fine example of ignoring some online content – or at least treating it as entertainment.
Which one is it?
OR
Source: Seeking Alpha, January 2025.
For the record, unlike Seeking Alpha, I believe when you want to ignore any stock selections owning low-cost, diversified global funds can be great ways to invest including firing your expensive money manager too. Using a 0.75% assets under management model – that would cost me/us tens of thousands of dollars per year for someone else to manage our money. Stuff I think about… 🙂
My friend reminded us as much as U.S. stocks have soared in recent years, bad market cycles can and do happen. 2025 is just starting out – it could be a wild ride.
“The S&P 500 was flat between 2000 – 2012, before going up 5x in the past 12 years If you are not able to stick to the investments when they are going nowhere, you’d not be around to benefit from them when they are going somewhere…”
Stay invested. Have a great weekend!
Mark
Mark
My name is Mark Seed – the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I’m looking to start semi-retirement soon, sooner than most. Find out what I did and how I realized Financial Independence to tailor your own path. Join the newsletter read by thousands. Always free.
