Is the U.S. Economy Contracting?


This is easily the biggest market shift we’ve seen in decades…

And it could signal tough times are ahead.

If you are on the wrong side of this massive change… you could lose a substantial part of your wealth and retirement savings.

But if you are on the RIGHT side of this money migration…

You could make dramatic gains – even 10X your money within the next four years.

Because while the richest, most connected people are moving OUT of tech stocks…

Smart money is moving INTO a surprising set of stocks.

And you’ll never guess where…

That’s why Alex is going LIVE to give an important survival blueprint for our readers.

He’s calling it 2025’s Great Insider Migration Event. And it’s on Tuesday, March 11, at 2 p.m. ET…

Reserve Your Spot

– Nicole Labra, Senior Managing Editor


There’s a reason that financial crises were once referred to as panics.

Because such crises – including market crashes, bank runs, and sudden economic contractions – are most often the result of fear. Fear among consumers, businesspeople, or investors – or all three.

Once these various economic actors begin to fear about the future, they alter their behavior…

Consumers stop dining out and purchasing things, business managers stop hiring and investing in their operations, and investors sell assets.

Those consequences are all to be avoided if you’re a policy maker. Instead, one of your top priorities is to inspire confidence in the future and steer clear of policies that create fear about what the future holds.

That doesn’t seem to be the case right now. Here’s the evidence…

  • Consumers cut their spending in January by the most in four years.
  • Consumer confidence plummeted in February, the biggest monthly decline in four years.
  • More S&P 500 executives mentioned tariffs in earnings calls this earnings season than have done so since 2019.
  • The Atlanta Federal Reserve now forecasts that the economy will shrink by 2.8% in the first quarter, and many economists say the reason is a gloomier outlook among consumers and companies due to massive federal workforce layoffs and potential tariffs.

President Trump made many promises running up to the election. We can argue about the wisdom of some of these potential policies, but one thing seems undeniable: he’s got the sequencing wrong.

That’s because mass deportations, broad federal layoffs, and tariffs – all of which have the potential to erode economic confidence – should have come after, not before, tax cuts, deregulation, and lower oil prices, all of which can inspire confidence and ignite animal spirits.

A Political Calculation?

It’s quite possible that Mr. Trump is perfectly aware that the policies he’s implementing now could depress the economy before deregulation and lower taxes and oil prices stimulate it. In fact, he might be trying to get the economically negative priorities out of the way first so that they are ancient history by the time the midterm elections roll around in November 2026.

I have no idea what the political calculation involved here is, or if there even is one.

But if we investors use the stock market as a kind of proxy for how his policies are going over, there has been a clear change in attitude toward his strategy.

The S&P 500 soared in the days after Donald Trump won the November election, climbing almost 6% from November 5 until inauguration day on January 21 due to broad-based optimism about the future of the economy. Since Trump’s swearing in, however, the market has traded sideways and is down more than 3%.

Falling Fast - Major market indexes since Election Day

The only reason the stock market hasn’t completely tanked is that many investors continue to believe that the onerous tariffs that the Trump administration has implemented brandishing are merely a negotiation strategy to gain concessions from Canada, Mexico, and China, and the European Union on other issues.

I continue to hope that’s the case, too. Though as I write, the 25% tariffs on our northern and southern neighbors are in effect.

Trump is a businessman, and he clearly sees financial markets as a barometer for his own performance.

Investors have been sending him a message. Let’s all hope he’s listening.



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