March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

Dear Mr. Market:

This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opportunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.  We break down and assign each of the four “regions” with an asset class and then pick teams (stocks) that we think have the best chance at doing well relative to others. 

Not only is this “exercise” a way for us to share our ideas from a macro perspective, but it offers a fun platform to dig into a couple specific investments and themes we are following or excited about. While NCAA teams battle for supremacy on the court, our annual March Madness Investing Bracket pits stocks and ETFs against each other to determine the investment themes we think are likely to outperform the remainder of the year. The competition spans four “regions”: Large Cap, Small & Mid Cap, International, and Bonds & Alternatives.

Who will be this year’s champion? Let’s break it down (click here to see the full bracket).

Read more: March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

Large Cap Region: The Heavyweights Clash

This year’s large-cap region includes some of the market’s biggest names. Historically, this bracket has been dominated by the tech sector, but after years of outsized gains, big tech valuations are stretched. Despite high earnings growth, companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) continue to trade at lofty multiples. Amazon (AMZN) is a surprising contender given that its P/E ratio is now lower than Walmart’s (WMT)—a rare value proposition for a high-growth tech stock. Energy also makes a strong case, with ConocoPhillips (COP) benefiting from sustained oil demand and a tight supply market.

March Madness Investing Bracket: Large Cap Region Showdown

As the 2025 March Madness tournament kicks off, so does the battle for supremacy in the Large Cap Region of the investment world. This region is filled with heavy-hitters: tech giants, retail titans, and energy powerhouses. In the first few rounds, we’ll see some predictable victories, but there are also plenty of upsets and intense showdowns, as companies compete for the ultimate prize.

WMT vs. FND – The Retail Matchup

In this opening round, Walmart’s (WMT) retail dominance faces off against Floor & Decor’s (FND) niche home improvement business. While Floor & Decor has shown strong growth in the home improvement sector, Walmart’s sheer scale, global reach, and e-commerce expansion give it the edge. Floor & Decor’s lack of diversification makes it difficult to compete at the same level. Winner: WMT

MSFT vs. WMT (Winner of Round 1)

Walmart has made it this far, but it’s facing an uphill battle against Microsoft (MSFT). The cloud computing juggernaut, AI innovation, and dominance in enterprise software give Microsoft an unmatched competitive advantage over Walmart. The retail giant may continue to dominate in physical stores, but it can’t match Microsoft’s future-facing growth potential. Winner: MSFT

LLY vs. TSLA – The Pharma vs. EV Showdown

In this intriguing battle, Eli Lilly (LLY) takes on Tesla (TSLA). Tesla’s falling stock price, quality control issues, and the negative media attention surrounding Elon Musk leave the electric vehicle leader in a precarious position. That said, we wouldn’t bet against Tesla long-term as the stock has been chopped in half before and roared back. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s strong position in the biopharma market, with a promising pipeline and steady growth in diabetes treatments, positions it as a safer, more reliable pick. Winner: LLY

LLY vs. LMT – Pharma vs. Defense

Eli Lilly’s strong fundamentals and growth trajectory face off against Lockheed Martin (LMT), a leader in the defense sector. While Lockheed Martin remains a solid performer with government contracts and steady demand, it lacks the same growth potential as Eli Lilly, which is positioned to benefit from the global healthcare push. Lilly’s focus on innovation gives it the edge in this round. Winner: LLY

LLY vs. TSLA – The Upset

Tesla is a name many investors have been rooting for in the electric vehicle space, but a combination of supply chain disruptions, decreasing margins, and the controversies surrounding Elon Musk has made its future outlook uncertain. Eli Lilly, on the other hand, boasts a robust pipeline and solid earnings, making it a relatively safer and more predictable investment for the remainder of 2025. Despite Tesla’s allure as a long-term growth stock, it doesn’t have the stability Eli Lilly offers. Winner: LLY

NVDA vs. AMZN – The AI Giants

Nvidia (NVDA), with its dominance in the semiconductor market and AI technology, faces off against Amazon (AMZN), the e-commerce and cloud computing titan. While Nvidia’s cutting-edge technology in AI, machine learning, and semiconductors positions it for massive growth in 2025, Amazon’s market diversification across cloud, e-commerce, and advertising provides a broader platform for growth. Despite Nvidia’s impressive capabilities in AI, Amazon’s reach across so many sectors gives it the slight edge. Winner: AMZN

MSFT vs. LLY – Tech Meets Pharma

Microsoft has fought its way through some stiff competition to get to this round, where it will face off against Eli Lilly. Microsoft’s cloud computing, AI advancements, and enterprise software diversification make it a tough competitor for any company. However, Eli Lilly’s strong market position and the expanding global healthcare demand position it well for sustained growth, especially in the pharmaceutical sector. Eli Lilly’s stock has surged due to the strong demand for its weight loss drug, Zepbound, which is driving significant revenue growth and expanding its market dominance in the pharmaceutical sector. That being said, Microsoft’s expansive tech offerings and dominance in the enterprise space outshine Lilly’s more niche position. Winner: MSFT

Final Showdown: MSFT vs. AMZN – The Cloud Battle

Conclusion: Amazon’s March to Victory

After a series of intense matchups, Amazon (AMZN) emerges as the champion of the Large Cap Region. Despite stiff competition from tech heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon’s ability to combine e-commerce dominance, cloud computing leadership, and advertising growth puts it ahead of the pack. With a strong, diversified portfolio, Amazon is poised to continue its dominance through 2025, claiming victory in this year’s March Madness Investing Bracket.

Small & Mid-Cap Region: SOFI Surges in a Changing Market

The small and mid-cap asset class has long been overshadowed by large-cap dominance, with the past decade favoring mega-cap technology stocks. However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy. This year’s bracket saw a series of surprises as the more value-oriented and sector-diverse plays advanced over traditional growth names.

EPD’s Cinderella Run Falls to Energy Disruptor UEC

In the opening round, #11 EPD (Enterprise Products Partners) pulled off an early upset over #5 SPMD (Mid-Cap ETF). The pipeline company’s steady cash flow and high dividend yield proved attractive in a market favoring stability, particularly within energy infrastructure. However, EPD’s run was short-lived, as #1 SDVY (Last Year’s Champion) struggled against the changing landscape, falling victim to EPD’s steady performance and high yield in a market that has seen investors favor dividend income over pure growth.

But momentum would only take EPD so far. It faced a much tougher challenge against #4 UEC (Uranium Energy Corp), which is well-positioned in the growing nuclear energy sector. With increased global demand for clean energy alternatives and uranium prices rising, UEC secured a convincing win over EPD, continuing its deep run in the bracket.

UEC Holds Off a Challenge from CARS, But SOFI is Too Strong

Elsewhere in the bracket, #7 CARS (CarGurus) won its opening round matchup against #9 GBX (Greenbrier Companies), benefitting from the continued shift toward digital automotive sales. However, it ran into #4 UEC, which proved to be the stronger play in a market shifting towards long-term energy solutions.

Despite its strong performance, UEC ultimately couldn’t stop the dominance of financials. In the later rounds, it ran into #2 SOFI, which had already handled #12 OKLO (another uranium play) with ease. While UEC benefited from the rising nuclear narrative, SOFI thrived on the broader shift in banking.

SOFI Capitalizes on Rate Cuts & a Consumer Banking Shift

With inflation cooling and economic concerns stabilizing, rate cuts have become a major theme, favoring financial stocks, particularly digital-first institutions like SOFI. Traditional banks have been slow to adapt, while SOFI’s business model has thrived in an environment where younger consumers are embracing online-first banking solutions.

SOFI’s final test comes against #3 ACHR (Archer Aviation), an exciting name in urban air mobility, but still a long-term speculative play with high R&D costs and regulatory hurdles. While ACHR represents the future of transportation, investors are currently favoring more immediate and tangible plays, giving SOFI the upper hand.

In the final showdown, SOFI outlasted UEC, as financials remain a strong bet in a market shifting away from traditional banks and toward digital-first solutions. As small and mid-caps begin to close the performance gap on large caps, stocks with better valuations, exposure to key secular trends, and less reliance on high-multiple tech valuations are finding favor once again. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, financials like SOFI could be well-positioned to outperform in the coming cycle. Unlike legacy banks burdened by brick-and-mortar costs and regulatory capital constraints, SOFI’s digital-first model and chartered bank status allow it to operate with higher efficiency, offering competitive deposit rates and expanding its lending capabilities with lower overhead.

Final Takeaway:

After a decade of large-cap tech dominance, small and mid-cap stocks are showing signs of resurgence as macroeconomic trends shift. Energy and financials are leading the way, benefiting from changing market conditions, lower valuations, and an evolving consumer landscape. With SOFI emerging as the regional champion, the financial sector’s transformation and the broader mid-cap comeback appear to be in full swing.

International Region: Investing Where the Puck Will Be

Wayne Gretzky once said, “A good hockey player goes to where the puck is, but a great one goes to where it will be.” That’s the mindset for the International Region, where investors must look past today’s uncertainty and position for the future. With Europe and emerging markets outperforming U.S. stocks to start the year—something not seen in over a decade—there’s growing evidence that global markets are shifting. This bracket focuses on who benefits most when the Russia-Ukraine war ends and economic rebuilding begins.

The first round starts with 11-seed Philippines (EPHE) taking down 5-seed Greece (GREK) in an upset. The Philippines is proving to be an economic force, with a rising middle class and strong growth potential. Valuations on the Philippine market are trading at just 10 times earnings compared to ours at about 25 right now. However, 1-seed Poland (EPOL) is on fire this year and quickly ends EPHE’s run. Poland is at the center of European growth, benefiting from NATO support, near shoring trends, and its proximity to Ukraine’s eventual reconstruction. By the way, the EPOL ETF also currently sports a healthy dividend of almost 5%.

In another early matchup, 9-seed Austria (EWO) takes down 7-seed SPEM (broad emerging markets) and then follows it up with another upset over 4-seed China (CHN). Speaking of valuations Austria is also trading at a cheap 10 times earnings and has a dividend of almost 6.5%. China’s economy remains a long-term force, but recent struggles in real estate, regulatory uncertainty, and slowing growth give Austria the edge. Austria has close ties to Central and Eastern Europe, positioning it well for economic recovery in the region. But Poland remains too strong, eliminating Austria and advancing to the finals.

On the other side of the bracket, 6-seed Argentina (ARGT) takes down 12-seed India (FLIN). India is a long-term winner but might not be as strong this year. Meanwhile, Argentina is undergoing a massive economic shift under President Milei, cutting government waste and embracing free markets—similar to the reforms being presented here in the US with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Albeit a divisive topic lately, DOGE has set up an interesting website if you haven’t checked it out yet. (click here to view that) Argentina continues its momentum, upsetting 2-seed Mexico (EWW). While Mexico remains a top U.S. trade partner, uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. policy weighs on its outlook.

In a key matchup between 8-seed Budimex and 10-seed Kernel Holdings, Budimex takes the win. Both are rebuilding plays for a post-war Ukraine, but Budimex’s strong government contracts and construction expertise give it the edge. However, 3-seed EFG (developed markets ETF) puts an end to Budimex’s run, as developed markets outside the U.S. continue to gain momentum.

The semifinals see Argentina (ARGT) facing EFG, with EFG advancing due to its broader exposure to European and Japanese equities. But in the final matchup, Poland (EPOL) is simply too strong, taking down EFG to win the International Region.

Bonds & Alternatives: The Golden Run Continues

If there’s one asset that has stood the test of time, it’s gold—and in this market, it has only gained strength. #1 GLD enters the region as the dominant force, and for good reason. With inflation remaining sticky, central banks hoarding gold at record levels, and geopolitical uncertainty running high, the metal has become an anchor in uncertain times. Gold isn’t just winning in 2025—it’s been on an underrated multi-year run, proving its resilience while stocks have gone through violent swings. It’s no surprise that GLD bulldozes its way through the bracket, reinforcing why it remains a core piece of many portfolios.

Crypto’s Comeback Attempt

On the more volatile side of alternatives, crypto has been crushed to start the year, but that doesn’t mean it’s down for the count. #8 EETH, down nearly -48% YTD, has taken a beating after a strong 2023, while #7 EZBC also enters after struggling with recent sentiment shifts in the space. However, long-term investors still see crypto as an asset class with staying power, and while high risk, a 2% to 5% allocation to digital assets can add a speculative edge to a diversified portfolio.

Both crypto plays come out swinging—EZBC takes down #9 SPIB and then delivers a shocking upset over #4 FTLS, proving that alternative hedges are still worth considering in an evolving financial landscape. Meanwhile, EETH starts its run by knocking off #10 FTGC, which, despite being up +7% this year, can’t match the volatility-fueled upside potential of Ethereum. EETH’s biggest surprise comes when it takes out #3 SLV, silver’s strong start to 2025 (up alongside gold as a fear hedge) not enough to fend off crypto’s speculative surge.

Bonds: A Quiet Comeback?

After years of underperformance, bonds are finally showing signs of life in 2024. While they haven’t provided the classic “inverse to stocks” protection in recent years, they have posted positive YTD returns (+2%) and could finally become a stabilizer in portfolios once again. #12 SPAB makes a Cinderella run, knocking out #6 USRT before taking down #2 SPTL—a move that reflects growing optimism that the Fed will finally cut rates, giving longer-duration bonds some much-needed breathing room. SPTL is also beating the stock market this young year at +4% YTD.

The big picture in fixed income remains uncertain—will the Fed actually follow through with multiple cuts, or will inflation keep rates higher for longer? Investors betting on bonds are hoping for the former, and as the yield curve finally normalizes, long bonds could continue to strengthen.

GLD Stands Tall

Despite the shakeups in crypto and bonds, gold remains untouchable in this region. It overpowers EZBC, proving that while digital gold has its place, the real thing still reigns supreme in a crisis-driven market. SPAB’s impressive run ends as well, as gold shows that even bonds can’t compete with its track record in times of economic uncertainty.

Final Four Summary

As we wrap up this year’s March Madness Investing Bracket, it’s clear that the themes we’ve explored in each region are reflective of broader market dynamics and economic conditions shaping 2025. In the Large Cap region, Amazon stands victorious, showcasing the power of diversification and innovation, with its dominance across e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising. On the other hand, SOFI’s win in the Small & Mid-Cap region underscores the growing shift towards digital-first financial solutions, as rate cuts favor the financial sector’s resurgence.

Meanwhile, Poland’s triumph in the International region signals the importance of positioning for global growth, particularly in emerging markets poised for recovery post-conflict. While this bracket is not meant to pretend we have any predictive powers, allow us to be clear on one theme we have playing out in 2025; the Russia vs Ukraine conflict will turn for the better. How that plays out and at what pace remains to be seen but positioning portfolios with some of the investment ideas in this bracket could truly bolster your bottom line. Finally, in the Bonds & Alternatives region, gold continues its golden run, reinforcing its status as a hedge against uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

In the real March Madness tournament, we are witnessing something rare; it’s only the second time in history that all four #1 seeds are facing off against each other. The last time this occurred was in 2008, and now, just like in the world of investing, we see heavyweights competing for supremacy. The fun part of producing this article each year is that it allows us to share some of our thoughts, strategies, and the investment themes we believe will likely play out in the months ahead. It’s all done with the caveat that we may only own a handful of the 48 investments listed on our bracket. Truth be told…most experts who pick stocks are no more successful than you would be doing the same job! The real winners are the ones who are able to pick enough stocks in the right areas and maintain the proper asset allocation relative to their investment goals.

Obviously every tournament (in the case of March Madness) only has one final winner. With this exercise, however, we are able to build an intelligent portfolio that will have a number of “winners” along with some stinkers. As an investor you actually have the opportunity every year to own multiple “teams” in different “regions” (asset classes). 

Long story short, don’t fixate on the one stock that wins it all; take a look at the whole picture. 

Enjoy the Final Four and check in with us next year to see if your portfolio beats this one!