John Batistich is a Non-Executive Director, Board Advisor, Business Leader, and Marketer who is a keen observer of the political, economic, and technological landscape. So, who better to answer the question of what the coming year holds for us here in Australia and worldwide?
As we left last year, we have the Presidential inauguration for a second Trump term in the US, an unsteady cease-fire in the troubled Middle East, and a significant shift in power in the region. Inflation continued to be a global challenge, and the world is still figuring out exactly how to transition to a sustainable energy and climate future.
On the technology front, artificial intelligence is having a significant impact on society and how we live. So, what does all this mean for business and marketing? John provides us with an informed business perspective.
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Clearly there will be rapid advancement and it’ll be more integrated into workplace tools and our decision-making processes.
Transcription:
Darren:
Hi, I’m Darren Woolley, founder and CEO of TrinityP3 Marketing Management consultancy and welcome to the new year and to Managing Marketing. A weekly podcast where we discuss the issues and opportunities facing marketing, media, and advertising with industry thought leaders and practitioners.
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What does the coming year hold for us here in Australia and worldwide? As we left last year, we have the upcoming presidential inauguration for the second Trump term in the U.S., an unsteady ceasefire in the troubled Middle East, and a significant shift in power in the region. Inflation continues to be a global challenge, and the world is still figuring out exactly how to transition to a sustainable energy and climate future.
Meanwhile, on the technology front, artificial intelligence is having a significant impact on society and how we live. So, what does this mean for business and marketing? To give their view of the year ahead, please welcome to the Managing Marketing Podcast, non-executive director and a board advisor, business leader and marketer, John Batisitch.
John:
Hi, Darren. Thanks for having me.
Darren:
How are you, John?
John:
Yeah, I’m well, really well.
Darren:
Look, we live in interesting times, don’t we?
John:
We do.
Darren:
And there is a lot going on, so I’d love to spend some time just really reflecting on those and getting your perception on some of these challenges we’re facing. And look, I mean, we are doing a bit of sooth saying, we’re looking into the future but in many ways, observing what’s happened last year it gives us an opportunity to speculate a bit on the future.
John:
And I think it’s important that leaders have a view on the near future because it helps businesses prepare plans, guide present decisions, mitigate risks, direct innovation, and sees kind of new opportunities.
If the last five years have taught us anything, is that our environment is volatile, dynamic, uncertain, and we need to be thinking and planning about the likely scenarios and that’s important, the likely scenarios.
So, whilst we’re not futurists we are business leaders and I think business leaders need to see the future first, and they need to help others prepare for that future. So, having some predictions around different scenarios helps businesses, as I said, prepare for their uncertain future.
Darren:
And look, you can’t exclude the thing that will come out of left field and knock you blindside. Like COVID, we had a global pandemic.
John:
Well, I’ve been doing this for a few years and I did not predict that, let me say.
Darren:
So, there is always those, but you’re right. If you think about the things that are most likely to happen, prepare for those, it means that when you do get something that knocks you off balance, you’re probably better prepared for it because you’ve got the other things covered.
John:
I think across the businesses I work in, which are from financial services, fashion, retail and also technology, it’s about identifying those things that are likely and the consequences of those scenarios and being prepared.
Because of the volatility, because of the change organizations have to be more prepared because you don’t want to be … and you will get wild cards that you can’t prepare for. No one saw COVID coming but you can project out in the future. The economic, the social, the political and technology changes, they’re going to impact your business and your people.
Global Political Trends
Darren:
So, let’s start with big picture in a way and let’s drill down to a more sort of focus for our audience of marketers. And I’d say probably global politics and the biggest story for 2025 is going to be the new Trump presidency, we’ve got or just had the inauguration. So, what are you seeing as the thing, I’ve seen the share prices have gone crazy since the election and there’s a big concern about a bubble ahead.
John:
Well, the uncertainty of the election is now passed and we have a second term and we see the world’s biggest economy expected to take a protectionist turn, if you like. And we have a leader who is more transactional, more focused on America first, less interested in traditional alignments that the U.S. has been a party on, certainly less interested in many of the environmental and sustainability platforms.
And we see that in contrast as an emerging alliance of Russia and North Korea, Iran, and sometimes China. So, we are expecting a geopolitical realignment potentially some heightened tensions, even nuclear proliferation. We’ve seen the South Korean saying, “Well, maybe we can’t trust the US and we have fears on our doorstep. So, what do we do?” So, I think Trump was elected on some, and he’s got now unilateral power.
When you look at the Congress, the Senate, and even a supportive federal law system, we are seeing that, prowess tariffs, do as he get there? Unlikely. Are they going to be negotiation chip for concessions? More likely. But the deporting millions of unauthorized immigrants, if he does that, there’s going to be a significant impact on the economy growth, wages, unemployment, there are huge impacts.
When you look at increasing oil production, lifting defense spending, reducing regulation, reducing government expenses, fueled by Elon who knows how long that relationship will last. He’s going to deliver corporate tax cuts. These are big, domestic and global changes that have implication on growth, global inflation, supply chains, global trade and he’s kind of got two years before the Congress level elections.
Darren:
The midterm elections.
John:
Yeah. To really get this done. And you’re going to see a lot of change, a lot of disruption, it won’t be a straight line, it will be dysfunctional but it’s going to have far reaching global implications. And the strategic competition with China in technology, trade, military influences is likely not only to be a bipartisan issue, one of the few in the U.S., but is likely to ramp up and have implications on world capital, semiconductors, data and AI technologies.
Darren:
But John, we’ve seen this with Trump before. He talks big to get elected and then uses that HSA as negotiating chips. He doesn’t necessarily promise his full agenda, he promises beyond that and then will work to get as much as he can. It’s a classic negotiation. Ask for more than you expect, and then be happy with what you end up with.
John:
Exactly. And this is now at a global level and it will be about concessions rather than what his narrative is, I think. And he will be able to tell that story that these are the outcomes I got for America in my American first policy. I couldn’t get all of it, but I think it’s very much part of his bluster and narrative.
Darren:
I think the bigger concern for some people is that now he’s got the lessons of his first term and is surrounding himself with people that he’s hoping can help him navigate the structures of Washington and the system, what the deep state-
John:
Well, we’re not sure navigate, I think more like disrupt and bulldoze. One, when you look at Ravi and Elon who are running DOGE for me to be honest with you, that is going to be about disruption rather than navigating Washington. So, he’s probably, many would argue, got a less experienced and capable people around him and looking for maximum change of disruption in these next two years, so hold on.
Darren:
And there is an argument that he won the popular vote this time. So, that the people that went out to vote, the majority of them have said, “We are unhappy with the current system. Perhaps it’s time to have a change to the system. Perhaps it’s time to push some barriers and break some things because the current system’s not working.” The question will be whether they actually land on changing the right things for a long-term sustainable prosperity for America.
John:
Well, look, the two material matters were cost of living and immigration or that fear of immigration taking jobs and opportunity for younger men. We saw Hispanics shift significantly in the election last year. So, I think what we have now is some promises that it can’t be executed without tanking the economy but they will be negotiated settlements, concessions and there’ll be narratives, and as I said, there’s a lot to do in two years before this Congress election occurs.
Darren:
Now on a global basis, the other big issue is the Middle East and that’s something that’s impacting every country. Even locally in Australia, we’re seeing huge divisions open up, not just politically, but in society, but it’s really interesting what happened just before the end of the year with the collapse of the regime in Syria and the complete shifts in power that’s happening there. What’s your observation there?
John:
I think embolden by Trump you can expect the Israelis to continue efforts to eliminate Hamas and Gaza, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon who as you know whose supply chains have now been disrupted by the regime chains in Syria. Israel has also been surgically reducing Syria’s capability.
And these all have implications for Iran, all of their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and others have all been impacted and weakened. So, there could be some possibilities of a ramp up in Iran and Israel or some surgical hits around Iran’s emerging and fledgling nuclear capability or there could be civil unrest in Iran.
So, there are, I think some plays that through 2025 that we can expect some increasing uncertainty but Trump will be all in behind the Israelis.
Darren:
And look, that’s the interesting part is how this is having deep implications into society, because where as much of the west was very pro-Israel states and anti or pro Zionist, that we’re starting to see fracturing here. We are starting to see the rise of the pro-Palestinian movement very vocally because of what’s seen as anti-humanitarian actions by the Israeli government.
John:
And I think we need to hold, when we look at the future, hold two competing views and thoughts and not be ideologically kind of centered. We can say that what happened on October the seventh against the Israelis was horrific and terrorism. But we also can have empathy and have a humanistic view to the suffering that’s occurred to the deaths of more than 45,000 Palestinians.
So, we can hold those opposing thoughts as thinking communities. But what we do is we get political division and that can have a huge impact. And we should work ultimately for peace and ultimately to reduce any of those fears and threats of terrorism on both sides.
Darren:
Because it is interesting, the Middle East is always since before the Second World War, it’s been a hotbed of disagreement. And it’s a problem that’s not easy to solve because it’s very difficult to find a win-win situation. The interesting part is how the world has ended up aligned around that.
And so, in trying to solve the issues in the Middle East, it really does have quite a division, a fracturing effect on many countries. We’re seeing Europe, for instance, very much coming down on making a stand and the international court issuing arrest warrants for political leaders. This is virtually unheard of in the modern era.
John:
Yeah, exactly. And it has implications to what happens in Europe with Ukraine and we might touch on that. Clearly the war in Ukraine is still a dominant issue in global politics and it has implications to diplomatic relations, sanctions, and importantly defense policies. We are seeing a ramp up globally of defense spending and Trump has been because U.S. is a beneficiary, very focused on ensuring that NATO members-
Darren:
Pay their share.
John:
Pay their share as you say. So, we can expect, and there’s been activity in the last weeks around Trump using the supply of U.S., made weapons to Ukraine as a bargain ship to bring Zelenskyy to an agreement, putting pressure on Putin through his relationship and we can expect some kind of settlement.
When I’ve done this for the last two years, I said there was going to be no resolution, and this would be a war of attrition. I’ve got some hope that there will be discussions. I think that a settlement that sees Russia keep the provinces of Donetsk … and Crimea obviously but leave places like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and those regions.
And then the question will be the future of Ukraine’s NATO membership, which Putin will not accept and support. But all of this has huge implications too. The listeners will think, “Well, why, what has this got to do with us?” Inflation, food prices, grain prices, edible oils, crude oil have all been impacted by this defense spending, budgets, they all have implications.
Darren:
Well, because most people don’t realize the Ukraine is largely the food bowl of that area. It’s such rich, fertile soil, they produce so much of the food stuffs that fed Russia and Eastern Europe, and that’s all of course, you can’t build your agricultural business in a war zone.
The other part is and it’s really interesting, is that Russia has also taken a hit in the Middle East with Syria. They very much backed the regime and now have had to withdraw from there. So, they’re also not necessarily in a strong position, and I would say to your point, probably more likely to look for a resolution in Ukraine because they’re up against the ropes in some ways.
John:
Well, it’s been a waste of humanity, a waste of defense and economy. And if Putin can get a negotiated seminar where he can position himself as having success in Ukraine, never being part of NATO and holding onto what he believed was Russian territory in Donetsk and Le Basque, there will be a win.
And I think Trump is, with his unusual negotiating tactics, has probably got a unconventional way to solve this greater than Biden or any other leader could have. So, I have more hope than I’ve had for a couple of years.
Darren:
No, it’s good to hear. Good to hear. There’s another hotspot, which is not turned into a hotspot, but there’s a lot of tension and that is China, the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. This is a real tension area because we’ve seen China under Xi Jinping, very clearly articulate the desire for the One China policy to actually reach fruition which would be Taiwan and the South China Sea to become part of China.
Obviously, the U.S. like Australia signed up for the One China policy and has always supported it until it comes to implementation, it seems.
John:
There are multifaceted issues here. We’re seeing the Chinese economy is slowing, there’s an expectation this year that it’ll grow at 4.6%, there is some domestic stimulation of the economy through the CPP. We also know that Xi Jinping has stated that he wants to integrate Taiwan by 2028 the means of which, and he wants to do that peacefully means of which is unknown.
But we also know that semiconductors, TSMC, Taiwan semiconductor is one of the largest companies on the planet and Taiwan leads the world in high-end semiconductors that support and generate the AI revolution. And we know that the U.S. have a significant policy around semiconductors, Taiwan semiconductor have got a massive factory in Arizona that is in development.
So, I think that this is a nuanced argument, will the U.S. sell defense materials to Taiwan? Yes. Will they be all in, in a defense of its sovereignty or perceived sovereignty? Unlikely. But no one wants a war.
But I think it’s a wild card for 2025. Less likely. Is it increasingly likely from ‘25 to ’28? Yes. But I don’t think the U.S., will want to defend. There’s ambiguity, I think, importantly, of the U.S. support but it is a wild card for 2025.
Darren:
John let’s be very honest about U.S. foreign policy. It’s mainly focused not on providing freedom and democracy to the world, but about protecting America’s economic and military interests. And to the point about them building a large factory in Arizona, you can see this is the first stage of allowing China to have the One China policy fulfilled and integrate Taiwan.
It’s just that there won’t be anything worth having from a military or economic basis, because it’s going to be translated to the U.S. And you think about it, when we had a global world where everyone at least was working to a common interest, we now are increasingly in a very divided world, we’re getting new alliances not since the Cold War.
John:
Yeah. We’re seeing the emergence of BRICS who are, and late last year-
Darren:
And the interesting thing in that is the role of India, because India, and I noticed before when you were giving the new alignment, you left India out because they’re playing a very good game at having a foot in both camps. They want the West and they want to be part of BRICS.
John:
Absolutely. They want a hedge and the hedge is for U.S. support if China and Russia align because there’s no secret that India and China have had some skirmishes over time, over a border. They also want alignment with Russia for cheap oil and cheap energy to support their economic growth and they want reasonable relations with and state relations with China.
So, India are a friend to all I think is their fundamental policy, but these have implications for Australia. We talked about Ukraine, food, energy prices and semiconductors and defense spending and regional stability in China and Taiwan.
But there are other things that are occurring in 2025, next month in February, Germany will go to an election and the center right party is likely to win. Canada late this year will have its election for the House of Commons and it will end more likely than not. Justin Trudeau, who has been a liberal progressive leader on the global stage, and he’s now a minority.
And then you look what’s happened late last year in France with changes in their prime ministership, there is lots of weakness occurring across Europe. And it’s no surprise that Russia this year is ramping up its hybrid warfare across Europe.
Disinformation, hacking, cyber-attacks, election interference, we’ve seen this in Romania. So, NATO has got some destabilized relationships, changes in Canada, changes in the U.S. whilst Russia and the dictatorships of Russia and China have been very, very certain and playing a long-term game.
Darren:
And it is too simplistic to just say, this is a return to nationalism. That the world is seeing nations increasingly look to being protectionist and to exclude the world when we’ve had probably, what, 40 or 50 years of globalism. And this is almost — some people say it’s a swing back, but it’s not uniform, is it? There are some issues-
John:
No. Well, if we had a global law order, largely a unilateral power, global power in the U.S., we now have that power retreating, somewhat focused on its own interests through Trump. And what we have now is some vacuums and China will take some of that, BRICS and other alliances are emerging. But when we look at closer to home in Australia-
Darren:
Yeah, we’ve got an election coming up.
John:
Yeah. And I think we can expect that in April, May and why I believe that is there’s the West Australian state election in early March. I think it’s pretty clear that Labor will retain that given their far majority they’ll get a swing against them but Roger Cook will remain premier.
But I think we’ve got this window really of what I would say is April and May but we know that the incumbents last year and it didn’t do very well in elections. If you look at the U.S., Britain even France, Japan, Taiwan, India, all of those governments got swings against them focused on cost of living, unaffordable housing, expensive groceries, high energy costs, these were global issues.
And Labor is getting little credit for key policies around the $23 billion tax cuts, cheaper healthcare, childcare, medicines, energy rebates and the improvement in wage, inflation and TAFE courses. And the coalition has been pretty effective in attacking and undermining the Prime Minister.
And we know that a mere 1% swing against Labor, and they could lose majority, but the coalition needed 3.5% swing to win. The polls are increasingly tight and not surprisingly, cost of living will be central to the campaign.
I suspect that Labor will be attacked by the coalition on can you afford another three years of Labor. I think we are seeing that, and that will ramp up and I think Labor need to be sharper on their messaging. They will be talking about energy costs but Dutton, who was unelectable last year, is increasingly becoming a really serious challenger and I think coalition will potentially gain a swing.
What are the implications? Will they get enough? Probably unlikely, but it will have implications if they win to superannuation. Because they’ve got a very different policy, energy, immigration, there’s some big implications there.
But if Labor increasingly get a minority government and the composition unknown, it will also have an impact on what they can deliver concessions, they’ll need to negotiate and the policies that they will achieve.
Darren:
And look, that’s very likely if Labor does scrape in with minority government, they’ll be forming a coalition with the Greens. And we saw last year how tough the Greens played on many key policies such as housing, affordability, environment and things like that.
So, the Greens are not going to be some junior partner, they’re already been flexing their muscles in the past. Labor must be very worried about having to face the prospect of a minority government with the Greens.
John:
I agree. I think we saw in the Queensland election last year that a swing against the Greens and the Greens reacted late last year and waved through a range of Labor legislation and not to be okay inhibited, because I think they don’t want the coalition in, they see more opportunities with working with Labor, but Labor won’t want to the electorate to see that because Dutton will absolutely leverage that.
And that could impact some Brisbane electorates, some Western Sydney electorates, which liberal require to be a real threat and then the teals, do they hold, they’re all questions coming for us. But what I do know you know, I guess emerging from politics to the economy for Australia, we have got some really big choices to make around our long-term deficits.
We’re seeing spending on Medicare, childcare, veteran affairs, NDIS, defense are going to grow and grow faster than tax receipts. So, that’s also going to be an area of concern for the election. But I don’t think either side is going to want to create budget repair until they’re in but we’ll see.
Darren:
And that’s the thing we are seeing, your point is well made that globally every government has faced issues and punishment from the electorate over the economy. It’s the economy stupid, is the saying but we also have an electorate that wants benefits but are not willing to pay for them.
And I think one of the big challenges, particularly for Australia, is to completely rethink our taxation system. It really is cobbled together, and yet no one is in a position, either the coalition or Labor to really tackle this properly and build a tax system for the 21st century. It really is nobbled by a whole lot of things that happened in the 20th century, late 20th century.
John:
I think this lack of vision amongst our political leaders is impacting us. And when we saw labor try some tax reforms and go to the election you know with Bill Shorten, it failed. The fear campaigns, for those that were potentially impacted by these changes, they rallied, they now have tools, social tools to gain rapid support and to weaponize challenges against governments and governments that have very slim majorities and are churning faster leadership than they have in the past, there is short-termism and low levels of vision, certainly on tax reform.
Global Economic Forecast
Darren:
So, what does the market look like, either globally and also, for Australia, for 2025?
John:
Well, great question. Look, I think the global economy will expect to continue to improve through ‘25. We’ll see the U.S. grow at around two point a half percent. As I said earlier on, China expect it to slow around 4.5%. I think the highlights will be markets like Vietnam and India and China will really lead the clean tech boom, EV batteries, solar panels, to offset some weak, domestic economy.
I think the central banks outside of Australia having largely controlled inflation, will now have new challenges around budget deficits, in the context of growing defense, aging populations in Western economies and health expenses.
And I think we’ll see some pretty big changes in labor markets globally. Changes towards jobs required around AI technology, green energy, healthcare, and those shifts are going to create some changes and there will be some displacement and we’re going to start seeing that this year, I would argue.
In markets I think, as you said earlier on, we’ve had two years of equity markets with gains of more than 20% in the S&P 500. Many analysts say that that will moderate more reversion to the means. So, equity markets S&P growing at that, in that 8 to 12% range.
But it’s going to be dependent upon how Nvidia and how the big AI tech companies perform because the market is priced and the valuations are so let’s just say priced for perfection. If you’ll get any shocks from those companies and any quarters, there could be some sell downs and then you look at … sorry.
Darren:
But we’ve seen Warren Buffet who’s selling down billions and billions of dollars and sticking it away is cash, that has to be a big warning sign. Because I remember reading that article and they said the current valuation of the U.S. stock market is twice GDP for the U.S. So, the total valuation is twice the GDP, you’d feel that has to be a bubble, wouldn’t you?
John:
There are certainly elements of that bubble if the performance-
Darren:
Doesn’t live up to expectations.
John:
Correct. And I think, as you said, Buffet has now more than $325 billion in cash. That’s 20% of his holding and I think we’re going to see some cautious, particularly older investors go more defensive. But then you’ve got conversely crypto, particularly Bitcoin who had a great end to 2024 is going to see some softness early this year but is going to end the year pretty strongly.
And why do I believe that? Is because we’ve got sovereign wealth, governments, especially a pro, Trump is being very supportive of his crypto mates or bros, I think they call them. The U.S. may class Bitcoin as a strategic asset, and then you’ve got hedge funds and private wealth officers who are all getting in late.
So, the way Bitcoin, the algorithms work, we can expect some softness, it won’t be a straight line, but it will end the year significantly stronger. The other thing we’re going to see is M&A and IPOs have been pretty subdued over the last kind of couple years and expect Stripe and Instacart, IPOs to get to market in ‘25 or potentially early ‘26, and certainly more M&A activity. And I guess for Australia economic growth expected to recover-
Darren:
Not in time to save labor.
John:
No, no. And I think it’s a really important point. If we don’t get a cash rate reduction in February next month or March, which many economists call out, I think labor’s chances of holding diminished significantly and I think there has to be that reduction in February or March and then that will give labor a chance of holding in minority or, and less likely on their own.
Darren:
Well, they’ve restructured, Labor’s restructured the RBA board to help that along. Oh no, was that my cynicism showing.
John:
Perhaps, perhaps. So, look, I think, we need to look at scenarios on one hand, inflation or the trimmed meaning inflation, which is still got a three in front of it. If that pervades, then that might get pushed out. If it comes down, I think then the RBA will go and then I think there is a real political challenge. Unemployment is still low. It’s still low at-
Darren:
Employment’s high.
John:
Yeah, exactly. So, I think, and then we’ve got other things like population growth. Our population growth last year had a two in front of it. It was 2.3, 2.5% and we brought in 550,000 migrants, that’s coming down. And it’s coming down politically because of housing and housing affordability will remain a crisis through the year.
We’re going to see firm prices in Perth, weaker in Melbourne so these things are going to impact. And as I said, budget deficits are going to continue for deeper and for longer. And then finally for Australia, the currency is probably going to be a little soft. I truly believe.
Darren:
But the Pacific Peso has been trading between 60 and 70 cents for quite a while now, hasn’t it?
John:
Yeah. Yes, I think more like in the recent times between 65 and 70, but I think you’re right, we’re going to see on the lower end of that range just because to be honest with you, we’re seeing commodities like iron ore, coal, LNG be weaker.
And if we start to reduce our other important economic power, which is education, and we reduce the amount of students, the economy, our balance of trade will suffer a little.
Technology and the impact of Artificial Intelligence
Darren:
Now, this is where I love the world we live in now because everything’s interwoven. We are seeing things like population growth has or lack of it is having an impact, but then the politics of migration is stopping, being able to address that and then we get onto technology.
We were talking about Taiwan and integrated circuits and AI and the impact that the investment and predictions of AI having on the stock market, prices of Nvidia, and it’s all a big, connected mess, isn’t it?
But AI is really been the topic of 2024. I think, the ChatGPT was the year before the announcement of it. But the massive progression that we are seeing, not just in generative AI, but artificial intelligence generally, and its applications, they’re having a huge impact, aren’t they?
John:
Yeah. I think generative AI will dominate any discussion on technology this year, but we will move from hype to application and starting to understand more about value and monetization. So, on artificial intelligence, I think clearly there will be rapid advancement and it’ll be more integrated into workplace tools and our decision-making processes.
We’re going to see new advanced versions of ChatGPT, Gemini, we saw late last year, Gemini 2.0 and Anthropics work around Claude. They will ramp up and those businesses will start to move to subscription-based business models.
Last year, only 5% of OpenII’s customers paid and we’re going to see that ramp up. And we also know that the CapEx around gen AI just Microsoft, Amazon, AWS, Alphabet, Meta, they spent last year, 220 billion just on gen AI and I’m expecting that to ramp up even further and to beyond 300 billion.
Now, we also know that the power of AI different to Moore’s Law is going to be doubling every six months. So, we’re going to see rapid development, and we’re going to hear conversations around super intelligence, around synthetic data. Super intelligence is going to be where AI is going to start to reason for itself. And when it does that, we’re going to hear that it’s going to be becoming more unpredictable and there could be fallouts, so watch for that.
And on synthetic data, we’re going to hear more about that around where simulations and algorithms are going to be used, rather than first party data or components of it to build new capabilities, devices are going to get smarter. This year, 30% of smartphones will ship with enabled gen AI and 50% of laptops this year will ship with gen AI process capabilities.
We’re also going to see gen AI agents in business start those virtual agents help us in new ways. Darren, I’m investing and I’m a director for a company called Versa CX and we are investing to create, automate customer contact centers and we are growing rapidly.
In terms of revenue, not so in profitability yet because we’re investing, but what we’re doing is trying to create customer contact centers that use humans for escalation and outliers and using virtual agents to replace interactive voice responses and poor-working chatbots. So, that’s going to shift.
But the investments in chips and these big technology companies creating their own chips, Amazon have got Ultracluster, Google, Tensor processing, Microsoft partnering with OpenAI, Meta is launching its automous, Apple are also investing and they’re all investing in AI chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia GPUs. But all of that has implications to work employment, but also energy and we touched on this earlier on.
AI and cloud services are driving up electricity needs, creating an imbalance in supply and demand. And we are seeing technology companies investing in the grid, investing in new power sources. Meta, for example, have an RFP out that will in the next few months of 2025 for four gigawatts of power to support generation. Microsoft is looking at nuclear power, these are all having implications for our gas and coal fired grids and nuclear power.
Climate Change and Energy Transition
Darren:
And I think that’s become a really concerning conversation because the problem is we don’t seem to have embraced or invested in renewables fast enough to be able to match the demand that’s coming from these technologies, as you say, which is driving people to look at other investments. The other problem is that most of the renewables are actually a diffuse generation. It’s generating all over the place whereas our traditional way was having hubs centralized, and then distribution out.
Now that’s why psychologically and logically, in some ways, it seems that the replacement and the move towards nuclear allows you to have a generator that uses the traditional distribution, whereas no one’s factoring in the huge investment to actually build, whether it’s community or diffuse networks that have to replace a hundred years of infrastructure.
John:
The old model was centralized coal, a grid that distributed coal out from centralized locations out to users and businesses and decentralized local community storage hubs whereas a vision of the future but that’s changed.
Clearly this year we’re going to see an increased need for energy. We’re going to become more energy intensive and renewables, solar and wind will be critical but fossil fuels remain significant for longer than expected and will run and those ongoing concerns of security energy security and emissions will continue through this year.
But there needs to be a boom in battery technology and we need to have honest conversation around nuclear energy. We’re going to have an election where this is going to be front and center. Battery storage will improve large scale, solar photovoltaic will come down in pricing.
But small modular nuclear reactors will gain high levels of investment, high levels of interest. But the work that CSRO did late last year said it’s the most expensive and the longest duration energy kind of opportunity for us. And so, this is going to have a huge impact on how we adapt to climate change, have impact on how we adapt our agriculture, our coastal regions, it has far reaching implications to our country.
Darren:
And the predictions are that 2024, the year just gone, will be the hottest year on record that the globe has actually gone above 1.5% increase. That’s the prediction, we’re beyond the point of human beings being able to have any significant impact on addressing that and I know and-
John:
Look at insurance costs, for example.
Darren:
I was going to say, and the impact on insurance. It’s now getting to the point that actuaries are starting to say there is a whole lot of businesses, a whole lot of infrastructure, a whole lot of home assets and, and the like, that are no longer insurable because it is now, the risk is too high to actually make it, yeah.
John:
There’ll be some in those regions that will, but we all this year it’s estimated that average Australian, we were spending more than 12% more than they did in 2024 on their selective insurances at an aggregate. But there are other also technologies Darren, that quantum computing, the federal government of Australia-
Darren:
Google have just announced that they’ve got that working.
John:
We’ll see increased applications, we’re seeing early 6G networks that will expand and enable more sophisticated internet of things. Meta continues to invest in VR and AR.
Darren:
I’m not sure why, but anyway.
Health and Medicine
John:
They’ve spent $60 billion on that. I do suspect in ‘25, they’ll curtail some of that, but they’re still committed. Electronic and autonomous vehicle technologies will continue to mature and advance robotics.
But I think we’ve talked about artificial technology. We’ve talked about environmental technologies, but also believe that healthcare technologies are transforming. We’re going to see GP 1 drugs expand at rapid scale this year, obesity will peak in the next two or three years on this.
But there are studies that say those on GP 1 drugs have higher life satisfaction, they’re drinking less alcohol, they’re far-reaching implications, we’re seeing more personalized medicine, telemedicine, more vaccine technologies coming out of the mRNA.
We’re also seeing some breakthroughs in some therapies and drugs potentially around Alzheimer’s that will be tested through this year. We’re also seeing affluent consumers focused on longevity investing in new anti-aging therapies and medicines and we’re seeing that start to rapidly emerge. All of these shifts around healthcare are focused on these mega trends around wellbeing, aging well and for longer.
Darren:
Because there are a large movement of very affluent and wealthy people that are investing significantly in their own longevity. There is a big movement in this, not just living well, but living longer as well.
John:
Well, it’s living longer well. Absolutely. And we’re seeing those therapies and services explode in places like LA and New York and the like.
Head winds to watch
Darren:
Now, John, there’s so much to digest here, so I wouldn’t mind jumping now to looking at what are the headwinds and what are the tailwinds. Because I think, what should be the things that business people and marketers is, marketers are business people should they be looking for as the headwind challenges of 2025 and where are the opportunities of getting a nice tailwind run down to the finish line of the year?
John:
I think it’s a good way to think about it because I think businesses, as I said earlier on, need to have views of the future because it builds resilience, it builds agility. And I think just having conversations with your team around what are the headwinds and what are the tailwinds can help.
So, headwinds, clearly equity markets are expensive. So, they could be very reactionary to bad news, as I said earlier on particularly amongst the major technology stocks, that could be a real headwind.
On the Trump administration, if they deliver on any of those promises of tariff, mass deportation, DOGE and others, that could be a real economic shock to the market. But close to home, I think we will have some improvement in consumer confidence. And we saw some of that late last year, not where we needed to be. Housing affordability will remain in crisis, that’s going to be a headwind for some time.
Darren:
And it’s such an Australian issue, isn’t it?
John:
Well, yeah, it is. It is in Australia, but we do see it also in other markets through the U.S. and in Europe. But I think that crisis won’t be felt by those who effectively own their own home, who’ve got no debt.
Darren:
Hello, boomer.
John:
Exactly. And we saw that in ‘24, really the only generational cohort that increased their expenditure, spending on travel, on experiences and services and restaurants was boomers. And it was the younger audiences that had mortgages, that were renting that saw those increases. They were the ones that constrained. So, we have a two-speed based upon your asset allocation.
So, the other I think as I said earlier on headwinds are going to be insurance costs, they’re going up. We’re going to have slower population growth. We’re going to have labor shortages. Australians will still travel, so we’ve got this outbound expenditure.
Before COVID, Australians were spending $60 billion when we went on our European trips and in ‘24 we traveled, we’re going to have fewer inbound tourists. We’ve got new global competitors. Australian companies are now competing against Shein, Temu and marketers under some pressure around asking to do more with less and rising acquisition costs because of the concentration of media. Now let’s shift to the other part of the question, tail winds.
Tail winds to consider
Darren:
Yes, can we have some tailwinds. I’m wanting a lift here. I want you to be the wind beneath my wings, as they say.
John:
Well, and we need to be optimistic. We lead people, we run businesses but we also need to lean into some truths. So, globally, as I said earlier on, the U.S. election is behind us and we can expect the Trump administration to be pro markets, pro-growth, he’ll extend tax cuts, provide corporate tax cuts and will reduce regulation that could create some real economic opportunity.
There’ll be some hopefully negotiated settlement around Ukraine which will, as I said earlier on, and we talked about, apply some downward pressure on food, edible oils and hopefully normalize even more supply chains.
Closer to home, we can expect inflation to moderate, importantly the cash rate to reduce early part of the year, hopefully next month in February or March. Do I think there’s going to be lots of deep interest rate cuts? No. But will we get some and that will provide greater-
Darren:
Some relief.
John:
Some relief. We’re going to have the full year effects of the stage three tax cuts. Unemployment will remain low, wage inflation will moderate potentially a little and there’s still going to be good population growth compared to many other western companies or countries, I should say.
And Australian companies have had stronger gross margins, they’ve taken price that’s going to hold. And we also should have hope that AI will start to provide some productivity dividends to the hype. So, I think there is certainly some tailwinds.
I think importantly, the tailwinds in ‘25 are better than they were in ‘24, where their headwinds and I stated this at the beginning of ‘24, were going to exceed those of the tailwinds. Probably in ‘25, they’re more in balance.
Darren:
So, overall, we’re coming out of, and it’s still early days, but we’re coming out of, in many ways, the debt we had to pay for dealing with the global pandemic, because the reaction, and we earlier said, no one could have predicted it, but to keep economies and to keep populations intact, we need governments everywhere needed to invest heavily, they spent a lot of money. The last two years we’ve been paying for it. We’re starting to see the opportunity of coming out of that, aren’t we?
John:
Yeah, I think so. But I think that structural deficit ahead, as I said earlier on, is my fear for my sons are housing affordability, job displacement on AI but also around how do we provide the services that Australians are increasingly expecting around Medicare, around the NDIS, which is an incredible policy but sustainability has been under question.
Defense, we have our — still, which is expensive defense and then we have the energy transition which dependent on the policy path and this election is going to have a big impact on that. These are things that are going to create some structural, potentially structural deficits that the next generations will fund.
Darren:
John Batisitch, this has been a terrific summary of a very complex thing, and I would absolutely love if you’d agree to do this every year with me because you’ve been doing it for a number of years, haven’t you?
John:
Yeah. I just write a little predictions paper for the businesses I’m involved in to get management boards thinking about different scenarios. As I said from the start, I’m not a futurist, I’m just really curious about how change can impact people and businesses.
Darren:
I think that curiosity is what made you a great marketer and has now made you a great member of board and advisor because you’re constantly looking for, well, what’s next? And it’s really important to do that.
So, thank you very much for taking the time today. I was interested because there are some left field things that could come out of nowhere, the wild cards, what would be your probably most left field wild cards that you could share with us?
John:
These are the things that worry me and all businesses should worry about, but I don’t know really how to respond. What happens if China does invade Taiwan? What happens if Russia rather than goes to negotiate but escalates and use nuclear warheads as a way to-
Darren:
Okay. It’s getting very dark here. John, can you give us something light.
John:
What happens if let’s just say Taylor … I’m hoping for Taylor Swift and Travis to get engaged and live happily ever. However, if there is a breakup, there’ll be a great new album coming forward from Taylor.
Darren:
Brilliant. Thank you very much. And with that we’ll end.
John:
Thanks Darren.
