Budget speculation around property taxes contributed to a drop in home buyer demand and sales agreed across the country this month, according to Zoopla’s latest House Price Index.
The uncertainty has led to house prices falling year on year across London and southern regions of England for the first time in 18 months, the portal said, while house prices in lower value, more affordable areas continue to increase.
The Budget speculation’s impact on house prices has been felt across southern England where there has been a year on year fall in house prices across London (-0.1%), the South East (-0.1%) and the South West of England (-0.2%).
In contrast, the broader UK housing market continues to show resilience despite Budget-related speculation. Average UK house prices have increased by 1.3%on year with the average price of £270,200. Most regions and counties outside the south of England are registering above average price inflation with home values in the North West of England 2.9% higher than a year ago.
Zoopla claimed rumours of more taxes on homes over £500,000 in the run up to the Budget created uncertainty across the housing market, leading to a 12% decline in buyer demand and fewer sales agreed in the four weeks up to 23rd November, compared with last year.
Much of the uncertainty has dissolved now that the Budget is out of the way, Zoopla said, suggesting the shelving of any proposals for a new annual property tax on homes over £500,000 “will be welcome relief for the owners of the 210,000homes for sale above this level across the UK.”
But Stamp Duty remains a significant hurdle for home buyers, especially in southern England, the portal warns.
The Stamp Duty price thresholds for existing home owners were set in 2014, while house prices are 47% higher over this time. This is creating ‘fiscal drag’ for home buyers in the housing market with buyers of average priced homes paying more
Since 2019, the number of homes bought by existing homeowners where the cost of Stamp Duty is more than 2.5% of the purchase price has jumped from 21% to 33%. The cost of buying is growing for average home buyers in towns across the south of England and the case for the abolition of stamp duty as part of wider property reforms remains a strong one.
Commenting on the report, Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, said: “The Budget bark was worse than the Budget bite for the housing market. Home buyers and sellers will welcome the end of the uncertainty that has stalled housing market activity since the late summer. Our data shows the underlying demand to move home remains strong. With greater certainty we expect a rebound in housing market activity that builds into the new year with households who paused home moving decisions over recent months return with greater confidence.
“The removal of the threat of a new annual property tax from 210,000 homes is particularly positive for the market and will help revive activity in higher-value areas across southern England where house prices are under pressure.”
Commenting on the report, James Nightingall, founder of HomeFinder AI, said: “The majority of house hunters paused their search amid the Autumn Budget which resulted in fewer transactions and some sellers reducing their asking price to attract offers.
“First-time buyers, on the other hand, have been the one demographic that has shown a similar level of motivation seen during November last year, with many aiming to move into their new home before the end of the year.”
