Albemarle County & Charlottesville City
January 1 through March 10, 2024 vs 2025, just resales*
*I excluded homes over $2M; there were a couple of big ones in the data that skewed things. If you want to see the data, let me know.
What the data tells me is this:
- More inventory coming to market
- Contracts are down marginally in the County and down about 23% in the City. That 23% sounds like a lot, but it’s only 16 houses.
- Median days on the market is trending up. April will give us a better look.
- Median sales price is down a touch.
- Was the weather a factor? We’ll know by June.
The top-level numbers are interesting, but for a more useful view, let’s look at a narrow band of the market.
$500K to $800K in Albemarle County, at least 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, at least 1,900 s.f. above grade finished, under 2 acres. Resales only.
As of about 7:30 pm on March 11, there are 10 active listings that meet that criteria. 16 pending. 12 have sold so far this year. 144 sold in 2024 that met that criteria.
- Last year, the median price for that home type was $649,450.
- Median days on the market was 5.
- 39 were in the Western Albemarle High School District. 73 in Albemarle. 32 in Monticello. For most of my clients, I narrow it down by elementary school district, but for this, I’ll keep it broad.
- Of the 144, 29 were built prior to 1990. 44 between 1990 and 2000. 39 from 2001 to 2010, 25 from 2011 to 2020, and 9 from 2020 to 2025 (so far).
For this market segment, moving quickly – whether to make an offer or not – is important.
Price per square foot – For those who like to use price per square foot as a metric, don’t. Minimum $/foot was $130, max was $370 and median was $227.
There’s a reason I tend to not use $/foot as a great metric unless it helps my client. Price per square foot is reasonably helpful for homogeneous properties; most of our market is not that. (NB: I wrote this on a Monday, and Wednesday took an appraisal CE class. Unprompted, the appraiser said almost exactly what I bolded above); I feel validated. 
Next month, I’ll look a bit at new construction in Charlottesville and Albemarle and a less-in-demand market segment.
What does “home” mean to you?
A home can be a fantastic investment. And it can be an albatross, financial and otherwise.
My definition of “home” has evolved as I’ve aged.
We’ve lived in this house since 2004; that’s a long time. Part of our current definition of home is this — Our 30-year-old standing at our full pantry asking where the good snacks are. (There are plenty!) Or her taking snacks home, see evidence above, shared with me by my wife. I told this story to a new client the other day, and she said, “That’s like me going to my mom’s house!” Upon further reflection (read: my wife pointed out), that’s what I used to do at my mom’s house.
I guess my point is that part of my definition of home is that it’s a place for snacks.
Next month – homeownership is not for everyone.
Bootlickers
There’s a lot of bootlicking in this world. There needs to be less of it.
I do not have a tie-in to real estate, other than that my real estate life and career are tied to the success of our country, and for those in leadership positions to do what is right.
Less bootlicking, please.
Embracing a Beginner’s Mind
This market is different; every market is. This one though is calling for more patience, analysis, tamping down of fear — mine and clients’ — and empathy and understanding.
I’ve been doing this for long enough that I have a reasonably strong foundational knowledge about real estate practice, the Charlottesville real estate market, and what data points are usually most relevant and provide the most useful context to most of my clients. And what data points are superfluous and will clutter the thinking and conversation. (See above: price per square foot is rarely relevant for pricing conversations.)
When I was nursing my injury (big thanks to my wife for her patience) I tried swimming. It’s hard, it’s different, and it helped take my mind off of not riding. Learning a new thing has been fun, much like learning this market has been. I’m doing similar things in the market, and doing the same things differently.
Assuming that this transaction on this street is going to be the same as the last time I did a transaction on this street or with that agent is the wrong approach. I try to enter each transaction with a fresh mind.
Next month: a thought about ignorance, and witnessing a differential diagnosis
Mistakes
Made a big new mistake this month; lots of errors in this note because I did final edit (after the editor made things right!) before 5am. Huge thanks to the reader who let me know.
What I’m Reading
- Market
- Chaos
- AI
- Climate
What I’m Listening To
As always, thank you for reading and for sharing.
— Jim
434-242-7140
